Revenue +15% YoY (+16% Constant Currency) to $1.6B Above High End of Guide; Billings +29% / RPO $7.2B +21%; Non-GAAP Operating Margin 37% (+300bp YoY) Above Expectations; FCF $556M; New Transaction Model Contributed $78M Revenue / $105M Billings With Implementation Friction Easing; AI AutoConstrain Delivering 580K+ Commercial Constraints With 50%+ Acceptance Rate; FY26 Guide Raised Across Billings, Revenue, FCF; $353M Q1 Buyback at $269 Average — Initiating Coverage at Outperform

Results vs. Consensus — Q1 FY26

Q1 Scorecard

FY26 Guide Update vs. Prior

Quality-of-Print Callout

Segment Performance

AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction, Operations) — Strong with EBA strength

AECO is the largest segment at Autodesk and delivered strong performance in Q1. Strength in upfront revenue from EBAs (Enterprise Business Agreements). One of the world's leading infrastructure consulting firms closed its sixth EBA with Autodesk — the SECOND LARGEST deal in Autodesk's history. Partnership centered around accelerating BIM transition, global data standards adoption, Autodesk Construction Cloud standardization as common data environment for digital delivery.

Hitachi Energy expanded as part of its most recent EBA renewal — adopting Autodesk Construction Cloud, Revit, and Fusion to advance renewable energy integration and digitization. Digital twin solutions with predictive maintenance. Multiple infrastructure customers selecting Autodesk Construction Cloud as the unified project data + workflow platform.

Assessment: AECO continues as the multi-year growth engine. Strong EBA activity supports forward revenue visibility through RPO. Construction backlog ticking up + monthly active user growth + bid activity all supportive. We model AECO as the segment driving the +15% Q1 reported growth — multi-year compound growth profile in the high-single-digit to low-teens range.

Manufacturing — Fusion driving multi-seat deals + extension attach

Manufacturing made excellent progress on strategic initiatives. Multiple customer wins highlighted: Waldner (German industrial) transitioning to 3D solutions with Product Design & Manufacturing Collection + Vault Professional; George P Johnson (large-scale digital transformation across four fabrication facilities to Fusion Manage + Operations); Grain Handler (global grain handling equipment leader) selecting Fusion to modernize entire design and manufacturing workflow, replacing two competitor solutions.

Fusion driving strong ACV growth with extension attach rates increasing and driving average sales prices higher. Customer demand shift toward unified workflows + Fusion's ability to handle complex high-stakes manufacturing processes in multi-seat environments. The convergence of design + make on a single platform expanding ADSK's footprint.

Assessment: Manufacturing is the structural multi-year growth opportunity. Fusion's ASP gain through extension attach + multi-seat enterprise deals supports continued segment outperformance. We model Manufacturing growth in the mid-to-high teens through FY26 driven by competitive displacements + extension attach + ASP gains.

Education + Strategic Markets

Austin University example — preparing future engineers by making entire Autodesk product portfolio available to all students. Migrating to Fusion for first-year modules in all engineering disciplines. Strategic move to embed Autodesk's portfolio in next-generation engineering workforce — supports multi-decade demand pipeline.

Flex consumption — Jones Engineering (global contractor) enabled flex consumption to manage fluctuating project requirements. Rapid scaling for new projects + reduced administrative bottlenecks. Multiple customer wins showing flex consumption gaining traction as a flexible monetization vehicle.

Assessment: Education + strategic markets support multi-year top-line demand pipeline. The flex consumption framework expands ADSK's addressable model — supporting multi-year monetization optionality.

FY26 Outlook — Guide Raised Across Lines

FY26 guidance reflects (a) strong Q1 performance reducing forward risk, (b) FX tailwind from USD depreciation against major currencies, (c) additional caution in underlying growth assumptions reflecting macro uncertainty. Lower end of new billings/FCF ranges assumes new business growth decelerates at pandemic-equivalent rates with EBA renewal uplift rates deteriorating — a deliberately conservative bottom-end.

Revenue range raised modestly to $6.925-$6.995B reflecting the ratable nature of the revenue stream (less volatile). Billings range raised more meaningfully to $7.16-$7.31B reflecting NTM contribution + FX tailwind. FCF range raised to $2.1-$2.2B. Margin guide bottom-end raised reflecting operating leverage and ongoing cost discipline.

The CFO framing — "lower ends of our new billings and free cash flow ranges assume that new business growth for the rest of the year decelerates at roughly the same rate as during the pandemic" — establishes a clear floor scenario. If macro holds, the upper end of guidance is the path; if macro deteriorates to pandemic-equivalent levels, the lower end is the floor. Substantial guidance flex.

Key Topics & Management Commentary

Overall Management Tone: Confident on operational execution + transition completion narrative; acknowledging macro uncertainty without panic. The "three sources of certainty" framing positions ADSK as resilient through macro volatility. The "easier to analyze and understand" positioning signals confidence that the transition complexity is winding down.

1. The New Transaction Model (NTM) Operating at Scale

"The new transaction model is a proactive plan to integrate more closely with our customers and drive additional business while also increasing automation and reducing duplicative workflows with our channel partners. It opens up new growth and margin opportunities for Autodesk, Inc."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

The New Transaction Model contributed $78M to revenue and $105M to billings in Q1 FY26. The Q1 print is the first quarter where NTM friction is materially easing — channel partners are working through onboarding their long tail of customers but not dealing with the systems requests or process realignments that characterized FY25.

Channel productivity is expected to increase as the year progresses, with channel partners moving beyond onboarding existing customers into extending renewal activities + new business growth. The Americas region first renewals on the new model in June; EMEA in September.

Assessment: NTM is the structural framework enabling closer customer integration + higher-margin direct channels + reduced channel duplication. The Q1 friction easing is the first proof point that the model is gaining operational stability. We expect NTM contribution to compound through FY26 as the renewal cycle migrates onto the new model.

2. FCF Stack Rebuilding Post-Annual-Billings Transition

"Rebuilding our free cash flow stack after the transition to annual billing for most multiyear contracts increases our capacity to sustainably return cash to shareholders through share repurchases."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

The transition to annual billings for most multiyear contracts is rebuilding the FCF stack. Q1 FCF $556M is the strongest Q1 in years. The structural shift means lower upfront billings cash but more predictable annual cash flow — a steady-state model that becomes substantially more attractive once the transition completes.

$353M Q1 buyback (1.3M shares at $269 average) demonstrates the capital return acceleration framework. The combination of growing FCF + share count reduction + dividend optionality compounds the per-share value creation profile.

Assessment: The FCF rebuild + buyback acceleration framework supports continued multi-year per-share value creation. We expect FY26 FCF $2.1-$2.2B with buyback at $1.2B+ pace (1H FY26 ~$700M, accelerating in H2).

3. AI AutoConstrain — Real Productivity Proof Point

"This feature has created over 580,000 constraints for our Fusion users since launch by automating the critical but laborious task of defining sketch geometry. This is a task that is foundational to 3D model generation. Since last quarter, user acceptance rates of the auto-constrained command have increased to more than 50% through our continual AI improvement and UX enhancements. This is indicative of the potential of Autodesk AI as it continually improves our users' experience with Fusion."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

AI AutoConstrain in Fusion is delivering measurable productivity gains. 580K+ commercial constraints created since launch. User acceptance rates 50%+ — the proof point that the AI quality is good enough to drive real adoption (not just demo use).

The structural setup: AI features integrated into Fusion's foundational workflows (sketch geometry → 3D model generation) demonstrate that ADSK's domain-specific data + context advantage translates into deliverable productivity gains. This is the first proof point in what management has positioned as the multi-year AI monetization framework.

Assessment: AI traction is real and measurable. The next phase is monetization framework articulation — likely at Investor Day later this year. We see AI as a structural multi-year growth lever that compounds with the underlying business + NTM model transitions.

4. Convergence Strategy — Design + Make on Cloud Platform

"Autodesk, Inc. is focused on the convergence of design and making, enabled by platform, industry clouds, and AI. Autodesk, Inc. is at the forefront of convergence because we've been evolving and investing in the business model, products, platforms, and go-to-market that capitalize on it."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

The convergence framework — design + making converged on cloud platforms enabled by AI — is ADSK's multi-year strategic positioning. The structural advantage: ADSK is "at the forefront" because of the multi-year investment in business model evolution (NTM, annual billings), products (cloud-native), platforms (Autodesk Construction Cloud, Forma, Fusion), and go-to-market (channel consolidation, store).

Customer examples in Q1 reinforce the convergence narrative: infrastructure consulting firm doing global data standards work with ADSK; Hitachi Energy adopting Construction Cloud + Revit + Fusion together; Waldner transitioning from 2D to 3D with Product Design & Manufacturing Collection + Vault Professional; Grain Handler replacing two competitor solutions with Fusion.

Assessment: The convergence framework is structurally bullish. The combination of (a) cloud-native platforms (Forma, Fusion, Construction Cloud), (b) industry-specific solutions, (c) AI integration, (d) consolidated buying through EBAs supports continued share gain + ASP expansion + ecosystem stickiness.

5. Channel Consolidation Driving Direct Capture

"We saw some fairly robust activity on the store and the store grew quite nicely. And most of this activity was focused on increased price realization. And that is a result of us capturing business down market that would have gone to transactionally focused partners in the past. … This is something that we've been deliberately encouraging and driving through a lot of processes and engagements with our channel partners."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

Channel consolidation is structurally bullish for ADSK. Half as many named entities as partners vs. a decade ago. Larger solution-focused partners buying up smaller gold/silver partners. Noncontracted partners disappearing. Down-market business shifting toward direct ADSK store with stronger price realization.

The downside risk (concentration with fewer partners) is being mitigated through commission structure — incentivizing channel partners to focus on new business + renewals rather than just maintenance. The Q1 store growth + price realization improvement is the first evidence of the consolidation benefit materializing.

Assessment: Channel consolidation is structurally accretive to ADSK margins. Direct store capture + larger solution-focused partner relationships + better commission alignment supports continued margin expansion. We model channel mix shift contributing 100-200bp of margin expansion over the multi-year framework.

6. EBA Strength — Second-Largest Deal in History

"In AECO, one of the world's leading infrastructure consulting firms closed its sixth EBA with us, the second largest deal in Autodesk, Inc. history."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

The second-largest EBA in Autodesk's history closed in Q1 — sixth EBA with this global infrastructure consulting customer. The partnership: accelerating BIM transition, global data standards, Autodesk Construction Cloud as common data environment for digital delivery. Multi-year framework with automation replacing low-value manual tasks + enhanced value-added engineering + reduced errors and rework + framework for leveraging AI.

Multiple other EBAs closed including Hitachi Energy expansion (Construction Cloud + Revit + Fusion). The EBA pipeline supports continued upfront revenue contribution + multi-year RPO buildup.

Assessment: EBA momentum is structurally bullish for forward revenue visibility + customer stickiness. Multi-year EBA cycles create RPO that supports steady-state revenue trajectory. We model EBA-driven RPO contributing 25-30% of total RPO with continued expansion.

7. Macro Uncertainty Acknowledged But Not Disrupting Current Activity

"Trade policy uncertainty, all these things, these have material impacts on our customers. It increases the cost of goods that they secure, the supply chains, their material costs that create uncertainty in their bidding processes. And this is true for a wide variety of customers. … But when they flag it, they talk a lot more about the second half of the year than they talk about things right now. And to kind of put this in perspective and connect it back to some things Janesh said in the opening commentary, construction backlog ticked up in the quarter."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

Macro uncertainty acknowledged but framed as second-half concern rather than current disruption. Construction backlog ticking up in Q1; monthly active users continuing to increase; bid activity on bid board increasing; most customers continue to see inflow of business. The current operating environment is constructive even as customers flag forward concerns.

Management's response: maintain disciplined execution on controllable factors (revenue, operating margin, EPS, capital allocation) while building cautious assumptions into bottom-end of guidance range. The dual approach captures upside in current environment while protecting against macro deterioration.

Assessment: Macro uncertainty is real but not disrupting. ADSK's exposure to long-cycle infrastructure + construction provides multi-quarter visibility through EBA backlog. We expect Q2-Q3 trajectory to support continued growth even with macro uncertainty persisting.

8. New CRO + Board Refresh

"Our new chief revenue officer, Andy Elder, joined on May 12th from Microsoft. … And with the appointment of John Cahill, Ram Krishnan, Jeff Epstein, and Christy Simmons, we are refreshing our board to guide the next decade of growth."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO; Janesh Moorjani, CFO

Leadership refresh underway. New CRO Andy Elder joined May 12 from Microsoft. Four new board appointments (John Cahill, Ram Krishnan, Jeff Epstein, Christy Simmons) to guide the next decade. The leadership refresh signals strategic positioning for the next phase of growth post-transitions.

Assessment: Leadership refresh is operationally supportive of the multi-year framework. New CRO experience from Microsoft particularly relevant for the AI + cloud + enterprise transition. We watch for incremental operational adjustments as Andy Elder settles in (CFO expects rapid settling per Q1 commentary).

9. Fusion Roadmap Acceleration — Data Management + Roadmap Reallocation

"We're accelerating the roadmap around data management issues. This comes straight from our customers. They want better bond management. They want better product data management in the cloud with granular data from Fusion. So we have worked hard to reallocate funds and focus on these customer priorities."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

Fusion roadmap accelerated on customer-driven data management priorities — BOM management, product data management in cloud, granular data from Fusion. Roadmap items coming out in Q1 with more throughout the year. Important for multi-seat deal closure.

Forma roadmap also being accelerated — Investor Day later this year will detail more on roadmap. Areas of customer focus: multi-disciplinary collaboration + connect Forma deeply to Revit + FormaBoard collaboration tool + AI features.

Assessment: Roadmap acceleration is operationally supportive — customer-driven priorities increase product stickiness + ASP. We expect continued Fusion + Forma roadmap delivery to support multi-quarter customer expansion.

10. NRR Above 100-110% Range on NTM Effect

"It's mainly the mechanical effect of the new transaction model. It's hard to disaggregate the specific [contribution]. It's safe to say that excluding that effect, it would have been consistent with where it was previously and within the 100 to 110% range."
— Janesh Moorjani, CFO

Net Revenue Retention exceeded the 100-110% range for the first time in years — driven mainly by mechanical NTM effect. Ex-NTM, NRR would have been consistent with prior periods within the 100-110% range. The mechanical effect persists as NTM scales through FY26.

Assessment: NRR mechanical lift from NTM is non-recurring but structurally reflects the direct customer integration benefit of the model. Underlying NRR remaining stable in 100-110% supports continued forward revenue trajectory.

11. Restructuring + Stock-Based Comp Discipline

"GAAP operating margins decreased seven percentage points primarily due to restructuring charges of $105 million and a one-time noncash charge of $54 million reflecting a cumulative adjustment in stock-based compensation since fiscal related to the company's employee stock purchase program. … We remain very focused on bringing stock-based compensation as a percent of revenue to below 10% and in part to reflect that intent, we have incorporated it into our long-term executive plans."
— Janesh Moorjani, CFO

Q1 GAAP operating margins decreased 7pp on restructuring ($105M) + one-time non-cash SBC adjustment ($54M). Restructuring reflects initial build of capabilities for next phase of sales and marketing evolution. SBC discipline — target below 10% of revenue with framework now incorporated into long-term executive plans.

Assessment: Operational discipline on SBC + restructuring positions for multi-year margin expansion. We expect non-GAAP margin trajectory toward 38-40% by FY28 vs. 37% Q1 FY26.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Macro Environment and Customer Conversations

Lead analyst question on customer conversations and macro impact. Management's framing: customers flag tariff uncertainty + cost-of-goods + bidding process concerns, but second-half focused; current operating environment constructive with backlog growth, MAU growth, bid activity growth.

Q: "You mentioned in your prepared remarks that the underlying momentum in the business has been stable. Just given the significant uncertainty out there, could you just talk about how customer conversations are evolving, if at all, and maybe just touch on just broadly your thoughts on the macro."
— Saket Kalia, Barclays

A: "Trade policy uncertainty, all these things, these have material impacts on our customers. It increases the cost of goods that they secure, the supply chains, their material costs that create uncertainty in their bidding processes. … But when they flag it, they talk a lot more about the second half of the year than they talk about things right now. … construction backlog ticked up in the quarter. We continue to see increases in monthly active users of our products. We saw increasing bid activity on bid board. And most of our customers continue to see an inflow of business."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

Assessment: Macro is real risk but current activity remains constructive. We expect Q2-Q3 trajectory to support continued growth.

Margin Momentum and Sales/Marketing Optimization

Question on Q1 margin strength + sales/marketing optimization plan progress. CFO confirmed margin strength driven by revenue outperformance + expense discipline + restructuring on schedule for multi-year sales/marketing evolution.

Q: "Q1 margins here were better than we expected. Could you just talk about your margin momentum a little bit? And maybe in particular, you just talk about how the sales and marketing optimization plan is going generally?"
— Saket Kalia, Barclays

A: "The Q1 margin strength mainly was driven by the revenue outperformance, combined with just ongoing expense discipline that we have here in the team. On the restructuring, we executed that well. As you'll recall, we're on a multiyear journey with the implementation of the new transaction model and deriving the benefits from that. And so the restructuring reflected the initial and we are building the capabilities now that we will need next year as we continue our sales and marketing evolution. So so far, I'd say we're on track with the overall sales and marketing optimization plan for the year."
— Janesh Moorjani, CFO

Assessment: Sales/marketing optimization on track. Multi-year journey supports continued margin expansion.

Channel Consolidation Benefits

Question on channel consolidation benefits + risks. Management confirmed deliberate strategy to encourage fewer, more solution-focused partners with downside risk mitigated through commission structure.

Q: "Particularly here in the US, we've seen it among some of your peers, but we've certainly seen it in your case where you now have half as many named entities with whom you count as partners as a decade ago. So the question is, what do you see as the benefits of such consolidation or perhaps the risks of any of that consolidation in your channel?"
— Jay Vleeschhouwer, Griffin Securities

A: "This is something that we've been deliberately encouraging and driving through a lot of processes and engagements with our channel partners. We want fewer, more solution-focused channel partners out there. … Now when you look at some of the benefits associated with this, we actually saw some of these in Q1. We saw some fairly robust activity on the store and the store grew quite nicely. And most of this activity was focused on increased price realization. And that is a result of us capturing business down market that would have gone to transactionally focused partners in the past."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

Assessment: Channel consolidation is structurally accretive to ADSK margins. Direct store capture + better partner commission alignment supports continued margin expansion.

NTM Implementation Disruption Easing

Question on NTM implementation friction status + opportunity. CEO confirmed friction easing vs. FY25 levels; channel productivity expected to increase as the year progresses; first renewals on new model in June (Americas) and September (EMEA).

Q: "Last quarter, you talked a little bit about the transaction model and I'd call it some self-inflicted hiccups as they were focusing on that as opposed to the [business] itself. Just curious kind of how that's progressing in general and is there an opportunity for this to become a tailwind as the business the channel partners continue to focus on the new business growth you just talked about?"
— Adam Borg, Stifel

A: "We're definitely not seeing the kind of disruptions we saw last year and in Q4. So with channel productivity. The channel partners are still working through adapting and bringing onboarding their long tail of customers onto the new transaction model, but we're not dealing with the kind of systems requests or process realignments that we saw earlier in last year and towards the end of last year. So that's a really good thing. So what you should expect is that channel productivity should increase as we head out into the year, and you'll actually start to see channel partners kind of move beyond just onboarding existing customers and into kind of extending their renewal activities and extending into their new business growth activities."
— Andrew Anagnost, CEO

Assessment: NTM friction easing is the first proof point. Channel productivity ramp through FY26 supports continued operational acceleration.

NRR Trajectory and NTM Effect

Question on NRR exceeding 100-110% range + sustainability. CFO confirmed mainly mechanical NTM effect; underlying NRR consistent with prior periods within 100-110%.

Q: "I think just on NRR, this is the first time it was above the 100 to 110% range, I think, in years. You talked about some of that benefit coming from the new transaction model, I guess. Just wanted to confirm, it would have been within that range, not below the range without the transaction model. And, why should we think it should be at the 110 range for the rest of the year?"
— Adam Borg, Stifel

A: "Yeah. Adam, that's right. It's mainly the mechanical effect of the new transaction model. It's hard to disaggregate the specific [contribution]. It's safe to say that excluding that effect, it would have been consistent with where it was previously and within the 100 to 110% range."
— Janesh Moorjani, CFO

Assessment: Underlying NRR stability in 100-110% supports continued multi-quarter revenue trajectory. NTM lift mechanical but reflects direct customer integration.

What They're NOT Saying

1. Specific FY27 framework. Multi-year framework references but no specific FY27 numbers committed.
2. AI monetization specifics beyond AutoConstrain proof point. Investor Day later this year will likely detail framework.
3. Specific buyback acceleration trajectory. Framework committed but no quarterly cadence specifics.
4. NTM full revenue/billings impact for FY27. FY26 contribution detailed but FY27 trajectory not articulated.
5. Specific competitive positioning vs. Bentley, PTC, Hexagon. Qualitative competitive framing only.
6. Specific AECO commercial real estate detail. Cross-segment color but no specific commercial CRE exposure breakdown.
7. Specific M&A pipeline. "Tuck-in acquisitions" referenced but no specifics.
8. FCF stack rebuild specific multi-year framework. Directional commentary; specific year-by-year framework deferred.

Market Reaction

• Pre-print setup: ADSK closed May 22, 2025 at ~$295. YTD +5%; trailing 30-day +3%; trailing 12-month -10%. Stock had been recovering from tariff-driven volatility through April-May.
• After-hours / next-session move: Stock indicated +3-5% AH on the beat + raised guide + AI traction signal. Modest move reflecting the operational beat being partially priced in.
• Volume: Pre-market volume elevated to ~2x average.
• Peers: ANSS, PTC, Cadence holding on read-across; Bentley flat.

Interpretive read: The market is processing the print as a clean operational beat with the underlying transition narrative intact. The next major catalyst is the Q2 FY26 print + Investor Day announced for later in the year. We expect the stock to trade higher into Investor Day on continued operational execution + AI framework articulation expectations.

Street Perspective

Debate 1: Is the NTM Tailwind Sustainable Into FY27?

Bull view: NTM is structurally rebuilding customer integration + direct margin opportunity. Multi-year framework supports continued billings + revenue tailwind through FY27. Channel productivity ramp + renewal cycle migration supports continued NTM contribution.

Bear view: NTM mechanical effects on billings + revenue + NRR are non-recurring lap-style benefits. FY27 will face harder comparisons. Net underlying growth could decelerate sharply once NTM cycles past first-cycle adoption.

Our take: NTM provides multi-year tailwind through FY27 with diminishing magnitude. Underlying growth ex-NTM at +11-13% range remains structurally healthy.

Debate 2: Does AI Monetization Materialize at Scale?

Bull view: AutoConstrain 50%+ acceptance demonstrates AI quality is monetization-ready. ADSK's domain-specific data + context + decade of AI investment creates moat. Investor Day will detail monetization framework supporting multi-year EPS expansion.

Bear view: AI monetization timing uncertain. Customers may resist incremental AI pricing if it competes with their internal AI initiatives. Productivity gains may benefit customers rather than capture ADSK pricing power.

Our take: AI monetization is real multi-year lever. We model AI-driven ASP expansion + new monetization vehicles supporting 200-300bp of operating margin expansion over 3-year framework.

Debate 3: Can Capital Return Accelerate As Promised?

Bull view: FCF stack rebuilding from annual billings transition supports multi-year capital return acceleration. $353M Q1 buyback at $269 average + multi-year framework support continued share count reduction. FY26 buyback guide of $1.2B+ realistic.

Bear view: Capital return constrained by FCF transition timing. Restructuring charges + investment in AI/platform reduces buyback flexibility. Multi-year framework may compete with M&A appetite.

Our take: Capital return acceleration is real multi-year framework. We model $1.2-$1.4B annual buyback through FY28 supporting continued share count reduction.

Model Implications & Thesis Scorecard

Model Update

• FY26 estimates: Revenue $6.95B (+15%); non-GAAP op margin 37%; FCF $2.15B
• FY27 estimates: Revenue $7.5-$7.7B (+8-11%); non-GAAP op margin 38-39%; FCF $2.4-$2.6B
• FY28 estimates: Revenue $8.0-$8.2B (+7-9%); non-GAAP op margin 39-40%; FCF $2.6-$2.8B
• Long-term framework: Mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth; operating margin expanding to 40%+; FCF conversion ~30-32% of revenue

Thesis Scorecard

Rating & Action

Initiating coverage at Outperform. Autodesk is at the intersection of multi-year structural drivers — cyclical recovery in AECO + manufacturing, the New Transaction Model driving direct customer integration + margin opportunity, AI productivity gains with monetization framework emerging, FCF stack rebuilding supporting capital return acceleration, and easier business analysis as transitions complete. The Q1 FY26 print is operationally clean with revenue +15% YoY above high end of guide, non-GAAP operating margin 37% +300bp YoY, FCF $556M, and FY26 guidance raised across billings/revenue/FCF.

Fair value range $310-$360. Stock at ~$295 pre-print; expecting 3-5% post-print move toward $305-$310. Fair value range reflects (a) FY27 revenue $7.5-$7.7B at ~5-6x EV/sales (in line with multi-year growth profile), (b) operating margin expansion toward 40%+ supporting FCF growth, (c) capital return acceleration + share count reduction.

Key watch items into Q2 FY26 (August 2025):

• Continued NTM friction easing + channel productivity ramp
• Construction backlog + bid activity trajectory
• EBA renewal cycle (Americas first renewals in June, EMEA September)
• AI feature rollout + acceptance rate continuation
• Capital return acceleration + buyback pace
• Macro uncertainty resolution or escalation
• Investor Day announcement details
• Forma + Construction Cloud roadmap delivery