Aemetis (AMTX)
Recap: Q4 2025
45Z Finally Materializes, EBITDA Turns Positive, and the Stock Rips 50% — But $362M Due in 48 Days Means the Thesis Still Comes Down to One Phone Call With Third Eye Capital
Recap: Q3 2025
Third Consecutive Double Miss, Revenue 33% Below Consensus Again, Gross Margins Scrape to Zero — But the MVR EPC Is Signed, E15 Is Law, India Is Ramping, and the Only Question Left Is Whether $238M in Debt Maturing April 1 Gets Refinanced Before It Gets Called
Analysis: Q2 2025
Second Straight Double Miss, India Comes Back at 25% Utilization, Working Capital Deficit Doubles to $302M, and $248M in Debt Just Went Current — But Seven LCFS Pathway Approvals and the Promise of 45Z Credits Keep the H2 Catalyst Calendar Intact
Analysis: Q1 2025
India Goes Dark, Revenue Drops 41%, and the Balance Sheet Has $500K in Cash Against $523M in Liabilities — But the MVR Project, CCS Permit, and $7B in SAF Contracts Keep the Optionality Alive for Anyone Willing to Stomach the Risk