Q1 Top of Guide, FY2026 Raised + Narrowed to €36-40B, Non-EUV Upgraded From Flattish to Increase, 2027 Capacity 80+ EUV Low NA Units, 1,000-Watt Source Demonstrated, Memory Constraint Extends Beyond 2026 — Maintaining Outperform

Results vs. Consensus

Q1 2026 Scorecard (EUR)

Q2 2026 Guidance

Revenue assessment. Q1 revenue of €8.8B at the top of the €8.2-8.9B guide reflects strong shipment cadence + Installed Base outperformance. The IB beat (€2.5B vs €2.4B guide) reflects customer upgrade demand sustained at high levels — customers preferring upgrades while waiting for new fab capacity. Net sales -9% QoQ from Q4's ~€9.7B is within the normal seasonal pattern.

Margin assessment. Gross margin 53% at the top of the 51-53% guide. Roger explicitly noted strong gross margins on the IB components contributed to the high-end Q1 GM. Q2 guide of 51-52% reflects a sequential mix shift toward EUV-heavy revenue (lower IB mix). The FY2026 GM remains at 51-53%, consistent with the Q4 framework.

EPS assessment. Net income €2.8B reflects continued operating leverage; implied Q1 EPS in the €7.10-7.20 range. The FY2026 EPS trajectory points toward €29-31 range (vs €25 in FY2025) — operating leverage from revenue growth + margin expansion + buyback contribution.

FY2026 Framework Update — The Key Disclosure

Guide Raised + Narrowed: €34-39B → €36-40B

Why this matters. The framework progression now reads: Q2 2025 "we cannot confirm 2026 growth" → Q3 2025 "not below 2025" → Q4 2025 "€34-39B explicit growth" → Q1 2026 "€36-40B with non-EUV upgrade." Each step compressed the uncertainty window and raised the floor. The Q1 raise is structurally important because it (a) raises the midpoint at the same time as raising the low end (true range upgrade, not just range tightening), and (b) flips the non-EUV outlook from a known headwind into an explicit positive driver.

Assessment. The FY2026 raise validates the Q3 2025 Outperform upgrade. The non-EUV upgrade is the most important compositional shift — the FY2025 non-EUV mix was -6% (Deep UV) due to China legacy normalization; the FY2026 non-EUV "increase" framing implies that advanced-node immersion + dry + application growth more than offsets the residual China decline. This is operationally meaningful.

Key Topics & Management Commentary

1. Market Outlook: AI Demand Continues to Solidify

Christophe framed the current cycle: semiconductor industry growth continues to solidify, driven by AI infrastructure investment translating into advanced memory + advanced logic demand. Supply will not meet demand for the foreseeable future. Customers are "strongly invited" to build capacity. The supply/demand setup is structurally tight across AI infrastructure, mobile, and PC end markets.

"We see that the semiconductor industry growth continued to solidify. This is still very much driven by investment in AI infrastructure. So this translates into a lot of demand for advanced memory, for advanced logic. And we expect, in fact, that the supply will not meet the demand for the foreseeable future. So this is creating a strong constraint in the end market from AI to mobile and PC. And as a result, our customers are strongly invited to create more capacity."
— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

Assessment. The "supply not meeting demand for the foreseeable future" framing is a structurally stronger position than the FY2025 "AI commitment is real" framing. The latter was a directional commentary; this is an explicit structural multi-year imbalance.

2. Memory Customers: Sold Out for 2026 AND Constraint Extends Beyond 2026

Christophe's most important forward demand commentary. Memory customers are sold out for 2026, AND the supply constraint extends beyond 2026. This was Q4 framing (sold out for 2026) but the "beyond 2026" extension is the new disclosure.

"If we look at memory, what our customers tell us is that they are sold out for 2026 and their supply constraint will last beyond 2026. For advanced logic, we see our customer building capacity for several nodes, while they also continue to ramp 2-nanometer in order to address the AI products."
— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

Assessment. The "beyond 2026" extension is the structural data point most directly supportive of the 2027 framework. Memory customers committing to capacity additions through multi-year contracts + AI infrastructure long-term commitments at end-customer level = sustained demand visibility.

3. 2027 Capacity Framework: 80+ EUV Low NA Units

Roger disclosed the 2027 capacity framework for the first time: at least 80 EUV Low NA units (subject to customer demand). This compares to the at-least-60 framework for 2026, implying ~33% YoY unit growth. The non-EUV side is also expected to be in line with customer demand "for all of their nodes."

"When it comes to 2027, in terms of capability, we're increasing our move rate really quarter-on-quarter. And then when you look specifically at EUV Low NA, we expect that we're able to get to an output for 2027. Again, if customer demand really underpins that, we think that we can get to at least 80 Low NA EUV units. And we're also looking at having the non-EUV business being in line with what customers are asking for, for all of their nodes."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment. First explicit 2027 unit guidance. The ~33% YoY EUV Low NA unit growth (60 → 80+) is structurally meaningful: it implies revenue growth above 33% on the EUV Low NA business alone (units + ASP uplift on next-gen platforms), supporting the multi-year sustained ramp narrative. Combined with the 2030 framework reiteration at €44-60B, the 2027 framework upgrade implies the trajectory is heading toward the upper half of the 2030 range.

4. 1,000-Watt EUV Source Demonstration — Extends Low NA Roadmap to 2031

The most important technology disclosure at SPIE. ASML demonstrated a 1,000-watt EUV source, extending Low NA EUV throughput to 330 wph by 2031. This is up from today's 220 wph (NXE:3800E) and reinforces the multi-decade EUV monopoly thesis. Near-term, NXE:3800E throughput increased from 220 to 230 wph; the next-generation NXE:3800F target raised from 250 to 260 wph (helping 2028 capacity).

"The first one was our demonstration of the 1,000-watt source. And this is very important because it means that we can secure the extendibility of Low NA EUV for many, many years. It means, in fact, that in 2031, we'll be able to run this tool at 330 wafers per hour, which is a major step-up from what we have today. Now the progress on EUV also has a good impact on the short term. We have been able to increase the throughput of our NXE:3800E from 220 to 230 wafers per hour, which is also helping on the short term with capacity. Our customers are very happy to be able to get more wafers out on any tool. And we are also increasing the specs of our next system, the NXE:3800F to 260 wafers per hour."
— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

Assessment. The 1,000-watt source demonstration is the structural multi-decade lithography monopoly data point. It extends Low NA EUV beyond 2031, meaning ASML's structural moat in EUV remains intact at least into the early-to-mid 2030s. Combined with the High NA + future Hyper NA platform commonality (disclosed at Q4 2025), ASML's competitive position across lithography generations is structurally locked in.

5. Non-EUV Upgraded From "Flattish" to "Increase"

Roger's most important compositional update. The Q4 2025 framing had non-EUV as "flattish" in 2026 with Deep UV up at advanced nodes offsetting China decline. The Q1 framing now is "increase" — immersion + dry + application all stronger than Q4 framing.

"On the non-EUV business, previously, we were expecting that to be flat in comparison to last year. Right now, what we're looking at is, in fact, an increase of demand there as well. So increased revenue on the non-EUV business is what we're expecting. I already mentioned what we're doing on immersion, but also the dry business is doing quite nicely and also the application business. So we believe in contrast to where we were a couple of months ago, we're looking at an increase for the non-EUV business."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment. The non-EUV upgrade is the most important compositional shift. It implies (a) advanced-node immersion + dry + application demand is meaningfully stronger than Q4 framing, and (b) China legacy normalization is fully absorbed and the remaining Deep UV growth is driving total non-EUV positive. This is operationally meaningful because non-EUV is ~30-35% of ASML's revenue base; upgrading from flat to +mid-single-digits could add €0.5-1B to FY2026 revenue.

6. EUV Capacity 2026: 60+ Low NA Units (Up From 44 in 2025)

Roger reiterated the 2026 EUV Low NA capacity at "at least 60 systems" — up from the 44 units recognized in 2025. ASML and suppliers are coordinating quarter-on-quarter move-rate increases to scale to this level.

"What we're looking at for this year for 2026, we believe we can drive an output for this year of at least 60 systems for EUV Low NA. That's what we currently have. That's what we're currently driving."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment. 60+ EUV Low NA units in 2026 is consistent with the Q4 framing (44 → 80 framework). The 2026 EUV unit growth of ~36% YoY + ASP uplift (NXE:3800E at higher productivity = higher ASP) drives the EUV revenue +significant growth framework.

7. High NA Progress: Customers Presenting at SPIE

The High NA insertion track is operationally validated. Customers presented at SPIE on the High NA value proposition: 3 → 1 mask reduction for DRAM + logic, 100 → 10 process step reduction, resist partners confirming multi-node extendibility (3-4 nodes), tool maturity improving (better availability + more wafers per day).

"What was good about SPIE is that our customers start to talk about High NA. And they reported a few things. The first thing is, of course, the fact that High NA can allow them to reduce the number of masks significantly. DRAM and logic customers were talking about going from 3 to 1 mask for EUV using High NA. And they also mentioned that this can reduce the number of process steps from 100 to 10, which is, of course, significant… we have seen also great progress on the ecosystem, some good presentation with some of our resist partners, pointing to the fact that High NA can be extended when it comes to logic to 18-nanometer line and space pitch. And when it comes to memory to 28-nanometer hole size. So it means basically that not only High NA is getting ready for prime time, but we already know that High NA can be extended mostly for 3, 4 nodes, which is, of course, very important for our customers."
— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

Assessment. High NA is transitioning from R&D qualification (Phase II) toward HVM production (Phase III). The customer-led SPIE presentations on the value proposition (mask reduction, process step reduction, multi-node extendibility) are operationally strong validation. The 18nm L&S pitch (logic) + 28nm hole size (DRAM) extendibility supports 3-4 nodes of High NA roadmap.

8. Non-EUV / Immersion Recovery: "Significantly Lower Demand" Reversed

Roger disclosed a useful operational data point: in the course of 2025, ASML decided to slow immersion ramp because demand looked significantly lower. That has now reversed. Despite the slow start, 2026 immersion sales are expected to come close to 2025 unit volumes.

"When it comes to immersion deep UV, we actually had a bit of a slow start because in the course of last year, we decided to actually -- we were looking at a significantly lower demand for immersion. That has now reversed itself. And I would say in spite of that slow start, we're still for this year expecting to get pretty close to the immersion sales that we had last year in terms of unit numbers."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment. The immersion demand reversal is the operational data point underlying the non-EUV upgrade. The "slow start" had implied lower immersion volumes in 2026; the reversal closes that gap. Customers ramping advanced-node immersion alongside EUV reflects the broader litho intensity expansion narrative.

9. Export-Control Accommodation Within Guidance

Roger's notable risk-management disclosure: the €36-40B FY2026 guide already accommodates potential export-control outcomes. This is a new explicit disclosure (Q4 framing did not address export control specifically).

"Within the guidance that we provided, the EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion, we believe we can accommodate potential outcomes of the export control discussions that are currently ongoing."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment. The export-control accommodation removes a meaningful tail risk that had been overhanging the framework. The guide range absorbing potential outcomes means investors don't need to apply a separate haircut for policy risk.

10. Capacity Approach: Combination of New Systems + Upgrades + IB

Roger framed the capacity expansion approach as a combination: new shipments, upgrades on existing systems (productivity enhancement), and Installed Base products. This explains why IB revenue has been beating — customers are choosing the fastest path to capacity (upgrades) while waiting for new fab capacity.

"We're very clearly working with our customers, fully aligned with customers to give them what they need, and that is in a combination of capacity in terms of new shipments, making sure that systems, that the performance of systems is upgraded as best as we can and also provide Installed Base products. So in that combination, we try to give customers what they need."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment. The combined capacity approach is the operational mechanic underlying the IB outperformance. Customers wanting capacity fast = upgrades and IB beats = the structural multi-quarter IB growth story. Q1 IB at €2.5B (above guide) and Q2 guide IB at €2.5B (flat) signal sustained customer demand for the fastest-to-capacity path.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Format Note: ASML's Q1 2026 results format was a video update with scripted IR Q&A (Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations, moderating CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen) rather than a full traditional analyst earnings call with live Q&A. Returns to full earnings call format are expected at the Q2 2026 print (July 2026). The Q&A topics covered below reflect the structured IR-moderated format and are summarized in the same topic-led structure as our standard recap.

Q1 Operating Results & Q2 2026 Guide

The opening exchange covered Q1 print mechanics and Q2 guide. Roger framed the €8.8B Q1 net sales as within guidance (at top end), IB €2.5B (above guide), and gross margin at top of 51-53% range driven by strong-GM IB components.

Q: "Roger, if I could start with you and ask you to give us a summary of our Q1 2026 results."
— Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations (internal IR moderator)

A: "For the quarter, total net sales came in at EUR 8.8 billion. That was within guidance. Included in the EUR 8.8 billion was EUR 2.5 billion for Installed Base revenue. That was a little bit above the guidance. If you look at the gross margin for Q1, 53%. That was at the high end of the gross margin that we guided. If you look at the Installed Base business, as I just mentioned, the Installed Base business was higher than we anticipated. But also if you look at the components in the Installed Base business, there were components in there that actually come in at quite some strong gross margins. So as a result of that, a pretty high gross margin at 53%. Net income for the quarter, EUR 2.8 billion."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment: Clean Q1 execution. The IB beat at high incremental margins explains the gross margin at the top of guide. Q2 guide of €8.4-9B + €2.5B IB + 51-52% GM reflects a modest sequential margin compression from mix (more EUV-heavy, less IB-mix).

Market Outlook & AI-Driven Capacity Build

The key forward-looking exchange. Christophe framed the market as structurally supply-constrained for the foreseeable future, driven by AI infrastructure investment translating into both memory (sold out beyond 2026) and advanced logic (multi-node capacity build + 2nm ramp).

Q: "Christophe, if I can switch to you. And can I ask you to give us an outlook on the market and how you're seeing things at the moment?"
— Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations

A: "We see that the semiconductor industry growth continued to solidify. This is still very much driven by investment in AI infrastructure. So this translates into a lot of demand for advanced memory, for advanced logic. And we expect, in fact, that the supply will not meet the demand for the foreseeable future. So this is creating a strong constraint in the end market from AI to mobile and PC. And as a result, our customers are strongly invited to create more capacity. So if we look at memory, what our customers tell us is that they are sold out for 2026 and their supply constraint will last beyond 2026. For advanced logic, we see our customer building capacity for several nodes, while they also continue to ramp 2-nanometer in order to address the AI products."
— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

Assessment: The "sold out beyond 2026" framing is the most important forward commentary. It's the structural data point underpinning the 2027 unit growth framework (60 → 80+ EUV Low NA units, ~33% YoY) and the 2030 €44-60B framework reiteration.

FY2026 Guide Raise & Non-EUV Upgrade

The structurally most important exchange. Roger formally raised and narrowed the FY2026 guide and upgraded the non-EUV outlook from "flattish" to "increase."

Q: "And then specifically on 2026. Can you give us an update then on our own business then for the full year?"
— Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations

A: "2026 is panning out very nicely. It's a very strong year. We're looking at a strong growth year. And based on all the customer dynamics that Christophe was talking about, we are actually narrowing the window and also increasing the window of our expectation to EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion for this year. If you look at the different moving parts as we already expected, EUV is strong this year. So EUV in combination of Low NA and High NA, strong year there. On the non-EUV business, previously, we were expecting that to be flat in comparison to last year. Right now, what we're looking at is, in fact, an increase of demand there as well… When it comes to the Installed Base business, strong growth there because obviously, it is a very fast way for our customers to increase their capacity to cater to the demand that Christophe was talking about. And I would say that within the guidance that we provided, the EUR 36 billion to EUR 40 billion, we believe we can accommodate potential outcomes of the export control discussions that are currently ongoing."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment: The raise + narrow + non-EUV upgrade + export-control accommodation collectively represent the cleanest possible framework upgrade signal. Multi-quarter framework progression validated. Maintaining Outperform on this.

2026 + 2027 Capacity Framework

The forward capacity disclosure. Roger gave the 2026 (60+ EUV Low NA units, near-2025 immersion volumes) and 2027 (80+ EUV Low NA units) capacity frameworks.

Q: "Roger, just adding on to that, can you provide a little bit more color or details on what we are actually going to do in terms of adding capacity to support market demand?"
— Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations

A: "What we're looking at for this year for 2026, we believe we can drive an output for this year of at least 60 systems for EUV Low NA. That's what we currently have. That's what we're currently driving. And added to that, we're looking at deep UV for 2026… we're still for this year expecting to get pretty close to the immersion sales that we had last year in terms of unit numbers. So that's for 2026. When it comes to 2027, in terms of capability, we're increasing our move rate really quarter-on-quarter. And then when you look specifically at EUV Low NA, we expect that we're able to get to an output for 2027. Again, if customer demand really underpins that, we think that we can get to at least 80 Low NA EUV units. And we're also looking at having the non-EUV business being in line with what customers are asking for, for all of their nodes."
— Roger Dassen, CFO

Assessment: First explicit 2027 unit guidance (80+ Low NA EUV units) — the structural multi-year demand-anchored capacity framework. ~33% YoY EUV Low NA unit growth on top of ~36% in 2026. The compounding multi-year ramp narrative is now operationally guidance-anchored, not just thematic.

Technology Roadmap & 1,000-Watt EUV Source

The technology Q&A covered ASML's SPIE updates. Christophe walked through the 1,000-watt source (Low NA extendibility to 2031 at 330 wph), NXE:3800E throughput increase (220 → 230 wph), NXE:3800F next-gen specs (250 → 260 wph), and High NA customer SPIE presentations (mask reduction, process step reduction, multi-node extendibility).

Q: "Switching gears a bit to technology. Christophe, can you give us some insights and latest updates on how we're progressing with the technology and our road map?"
— Jim Kavanagh, VP Investor Relations

A: "I think we continue to execute very nicely on our technology road map. I think every year, we use the SPIE conference to give a bit of an update to the entire world about what we have achieved. A few, I think, important news this year. The first one was our demonstration of the 1,000-watt source. And this is very important because it means that we can secure the extendibility of Low NA EUV for many, many years. It means, in fact, that in 2031, we'll be able to run this tool at 330 wafers per hour, which is a major step-up from what we have today… The progress on EUV also has a good impact on the short term. We have been able to increase the throughput of our NXE:3800E from 220 to 230 wafers per hour… we are also increasing the specs of our next system, the NXE:3800F to 260 wafers per hour. It used to be 250 wafers per hour."
— Christophe Fouquet, CEO

Assessment: The 1,000-watt source is the multi-decade EUV monopoly data point. Combined with NXE:3800E throughput up 4.5% (220 → 230 wph) and NXE:3800F target up 4% (250 → 260 wph), the EUV roadmap continues to deliver productivity gains at every platform generation. The structural monopoly thesis is reinforced.

Market Reaction

• Pre-print setup (April 14 close): approximately $985 (ADR). Stock had drifted higher through February/March on continued AI capex commentary + memory tightness + sell-side conviction that the FY2026 guide range would tighten/raise at Q1 print. YTD return entering print: ~+3%; trailing 12-month return: ~+21%.
• Options-implied move: Approximately 5-6%.
• Wednesday April 15 close: approximately $1,030, up +4.6% (+$45). Intraday high $1,045.
• Volume: ~10M ADR shares, ~1.8x trailing 30-day average.
• Sell-side reaction: Multiple price target raises Thursday morning. Goldman, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Citi, UBS all raised targets ~5-10% post-print. High-mark targets now in $1,150-1,300 range.
• Peer reactions: Other semicap names (LRCX, KLAC, AMAT) up 2-4% on memory capex read-through + non-EUV upgrade implications.

The +4.6% post-print rally reflects textbook validation of the multi-quarter framework progression. Every binding signpost from the Q3 2025 Outperform upgrade has been met or exceeded across two consecutive prints (Q4 FY25 + Q1 FY26). At $1,030 post-rally, the multi-year compounder thesis remains intact with upside skew. The 2027 framework (80+ EUV Low NA units) is the new structural piece — multi-year sustained ramp narrative is now guidance-anchored.

Street Perspective

Debate: Does the FY26 Raise + Non-EUV Upgrade Justify Further Multiple Expansion?

Bull view: The raise + non-EUV upgrade is the textbook signal: management is confident enough to raise the low end of the guide range AND flip a known-headwind segment (non-EUV) into a positive driver, only 90 days after the initial FY26 guide was issued. The 2027 framework (80+ EUV Low NA units, ~33% YoY unit growth) anchors multi-year guidance. The 1,000-watt source extends the moat through 2031. At ~28x FY27E EBITDA, multi-year compounding supports continued multiple expansion.

Bear view: The +4.6% post-print response is meaningfully smaller than the +8.1% post-Q3 or +5.5% post-Q4 responses. Diminishing surprise factor as the framework becomes well-understood. At $1,030, the multi-year compounder is increasingly priced; further upside requires either a 2030 CMD framework upgrade or a meaningful tariff/export-control resolution.

Our take: Bull view captures the structural progression correctly. The framework progression (Q2 cannot confirm → Q3 not below 2025 → Q4 €34-39B → Q1 €36-40B + non-EUV upgrade) is the cleanest possible multi-quarter validation. The 2027 framework data point + multi-decade roadmap extension support continued multiple expansion. Maintaining Outperform.

Debate: Is the 2027 80+ EUV Low NA Unit Framework Achievable?

Bull view: Roger framed the 2027 80+ unit framework as "if customer demand underpins" — conditional on customer fab readiness. With memory customers sold out beyond 2026 + advanced logic building multi-node capacity + 2nm ramp continuing + ASML supply chain coordinated for the move-rate increase, customer demand will indeed underpin. The 60 → 80+ unit framework is conservative.

Bear view: Customer fab readiness is the rate-limiting factor (Q4 disclosure). If customer fabs lag, the 80+ framework could compress to 65-70. Also, the framework excludes High NA units, which are still in qualification → HVM transition.

Our take: Bull view captures the demand side correctly. The framework is conservative ("at least 80 units" wording). Combined with memory CapEx cycle re-entry + AI infrastructure long-term commitments + 2nm logic ramp, customer fab readiness is likely to underpin the 80+ framework. We model FY27 around €42-46B.

Debate: At $1,030 Post-Rally, Is the Compounder Thesis Already Priced?

Bull view: At $1,030, ASML trades at ~27x FY2026E EBITDA (~€15B base) and ~22x FY2027E EBITDA (~€18B base). The historical range for the structural EUV monopoly is 25-35x. Current multiple is in the lower half. With 2027 explicit framework + multi-year unit growth visibility + 2030 framework reiteration + AI structural demand acceleration, multi-year multiple expansion supports a base-case 12-month target of $1,100-1,250.

Bear view: The Q3 2025 → Q1 2026 framework progression has been more than priced in. At $1,030, the multi-year compounder is fairly valued for the visible growth runway. Further upside requires either 2030 framework upgrade or a structural change in TAM that's not yet priced.

Our take: Bull view captures the asymmetry correctly. The 2027 framework is the new piece; the 2030 framework refresh at the next Capital Markets Day (likely late 2026) is the next major catalyst. We maintain a $1,100-1,250 base case 12-month range and a $1,300-1,400 bull case on potential 2030 framework upgrade.

Model Update & Valuation Framework

Risk-reward. At $1,030: base case PT $1,100-1,250 implies +7-21% upside; bull case $1,300-1,400 implies +26-36%; bear case $900-950 implies -8-13% downside. The up-to-down ratio is approximately 2.5:1 in base-to-bear scenarios — remains favorable for Outperform maintenance.

Thesis Scorecard: Q4 2025 Signposts Revisited

Scorecard summary: 5 of 7 Q4 signposts strongly met or exceeded; 2 in progress; 1 future catalyst. 4 new catalysts activated (2027 capacity framework, 1,000-watt source, non-EUV upgrade, export-control accommodation). The signpost framework strongly supports maintained Outperform.

Updated Signposts for Q2 2026 / FY2026

• Q2 2026 print within or above €8.4-9.0B + ~€2.5B IB + 51-52% GM
• FY2026 trending toward upper half of €36-40B range (>=€38B midpoint)
• 2027 EUV Low NA framework reiterated or expanded (80+ confirmed; possibly raised)
• 1,700 restructuring implementation on schedule (Q3/Q4 2026 expected substantive completion)
• Memory customer cycle visibility extending through 2027 (sold-out commentary continuing)
• High NA: additional customer HVM installs (TSMC + Samsung beyond SK hynix)
• 3D integration (XT260) commercial momentum in customer POs
• Capital return execution: €12B buyback progress vs program timeline
• Late-2026 Capital Markets Day: potential 2030 framework refresh; structural >€60B upgrade discussion
• Export-control discussions resolution path (any concrete framework outcomes)

Overall verdict: The Q3 2025 Outperform upgrade is now operationally validated by two consecutive prints (Q4 FY25 + Q1 FY26). The 2026 framework progression (Q2 cannot confirm → Q3 not below 2025 → Q4 €34-39B → Q1 €36-40B + non-EUV upgraded) and the new 2027 framework (80+ EUV Low NA units) are the textbook multi-quarter validation. Combined with the 1,000-watt EUV source roadmap extension to 2031 and the multi-decade lithography monopoly structure, the multi-year compounder thesis remains structurally intact. Maintaining Outperform. Next binding catalysts: Q2 2026 print cadence within FY guide + late-2026 Capital Markets Day refresh.

Action: Maintaining Outperform. Existing positions: maintain full weight. New initiations: $980-1,040 zone is acceptable entry. Bull case 12-month range $1,300-1,400 on 2030 framework upgrade reinforces favorable asymmetry. Position sizing should reflect the multi-year operational guidance anchoring (2026 + 2027 frameworks both disclosed) and the underlying structural moat (EUV monopoly extended to 2031 via 1,000-watt source).