Hold

US SSS +5.2% Major Acceleration; Hungry for MORE Strategy Delivering — Maintaining Hold on Full Valuation

Published: October 15, 2025, 8:00 AM ET By A.N. Burrows DPZ | Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis

Key Takeaways

Q3 2025: US same-store sales +5.2% — major acceleration from Q2's +3.4% and biggest beat in the post-pandemic cycle. International SSS +1.7% (slight Street miss); global retail sales +6.3% ex-FX. Income from operations +12.2% YoY.
Net store growth 214 globally (29 US + 185 international) — pace of international unit openings accelerating.
Hungry for MORE strategy delivering across operational excellence, value, and brand pillars. Profit power advantage validated as competitors match value pricing.
US +5.2% acceleration likely driven by combination of: aggregator partnership (Uber Eats, DoorDash) scaling, $2.99 carryout deal sustained, value menu reinforcement.
Rating: Maintaining Hold. Q3 acceleration encouraging but full valuation (~27x P/E post-rally) limits multiple expansion. Q4-Q1 comp sustainability is the open question. Fair value range raised to $450-510.

Results vs. Consensus

Metric	Q3 2025	Street	Beat/Miss
US Same-Store Sales	+5.2% (MAJOR ACCEL)	+3.5%	+170bp beat
International SSS (ex-FX)	+1.7%	+2.5%	-80bp miss
Global Retail Sales (ex-FX)	+6.3%	+5.5%	+80bp beat
Income from Operations	+12.2% YoY	+10%	+220bp beat
Net Store Growth (Global)	214 (29 US + 185 Int'l)	~180	Above

Key Topics

1. US SSS +5.2% — Major Acceleration

Q3 US SSS +5.2% vs Q2's +3.4% and Street's +3.5% = biggest beat and biggest sequential acceleration in the cycle. Suggests Hungry for MORE strategy + aggregator partnerships + value menu all converging.

2. International SSS Decel — Watch for Sustainability

International SSS +1.7% vs Q2's +2.4% = sequential decel. DPE (Domino's Pizza Enterprises) and other master franchisees facing macro pressure.

3. Net Store Growth 214 — International Acceleration

185 international net store openings — broadest unit growth quarter in cycle. Strong long-term store growth tailwind.

4. Profit Power Working

Operating income +12.2% YoY on sub-5% revenue growth = sustained operating leverage. Franchise royalties + supply chain margins compounding on growing store base + accelerating SSS.

Market Reaction

Stock close Oct 13: ~$430. YTD CY25 -8%.
October 14 session: Closed approximately $447 — +4%. Volume ~2M (~1.4x avg).

Thesis Scorecard

Thesis Point	Status
Hungry for MORE delivering	Strengthened (+5.2%)
International unit growth	Confirmed (185)
Profit power moat	Confirmed
Full valuation	Open (~27x P/E)
International SSS sustainability	Decelerating

Action: Maintaining Hold. Fair value range raised to $450-510. Post-print $447.

Independence Disclosure As of the publication date, the author holds no position in DPZ and has no plans to initiate any position in DPZ within the next 72 hours. Aardvark Labs Capital Research maintains a firm-wide policy of not trading any security we cover. No compensation has been received from Domino's Pizza, Inc. or any affiliated party for this research.

Independence & Conflicts

As of the publication date, the author holds no position in DPZ and has no plans to initiate any position in DPZ within the next 72 hours. Aardvark Labs Capital Research maintains a firm-wide policy of not trading any security we cover, does not accept compensation from companies we cover or any affiliated party, and does not accept payment from readers for personalized advice. Our research is independent, unpaid by any stakeholder in the securities discussed, and reflects only our analytical opinions.

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Data Sources & Forward-Looking Statements

Information used in this research is sourced from SEC filings, company investor relations materials, third-party financial data providers, and other publicly available sources. While we strive for accuracy, we make no warranty as to the completeness or correctness of any data presented. Any forward-looking statements, price targets, or rating opinions reflect the author's views at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from projections.

Rating Framework

Aardvark Labs uses a three-tier rating system based on expected 12-month total return relative to the S&P 500:

Outperform — We expect the stock to beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. This reflects a favorable risk/reward based on valuation, fundamentals, and catalysts.
Hold — We expect the stock to perform roughly in line with the S&P 500. The business may be sound, but valuation or near-term uncertainty limits the upside.
Underperform — We expect the stock to trail the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Downside risks outweigh the potential reward at current prices.

Ratings reflect post-earnings risk/reward assessments. A strong beat can still be a Hold if valuation is full; a weak quarter can be an Outperform if the sell-off is overdone.

About the Author

A.N. Burrows is the principal researcher at Aardvark Labs Capital Research. He covers the businesses most analysts overlook — quality compounders, capital-allocation stories, and businesses too small or too dull for sell-side coverage.