Hold

Q4 US SSS +3.7% Decel from +5.2% Q3, International +0.7%, FY25 +3.0% US Comp + 776 Net Store Openings, Dividend +15% — Maintaining Hold

Published: February 24, 2026, 8:00 AM ET By A.N. Burrows DPZ | Q4 2025 / FY2025 Earnings Analysis

Key Takeaways

Q4 2025: US SSS +3.7% (decelerating from +5.2% Q3); International SSS +0.7% ex-FX (continued decel from +1.7% Q3). Global retail sales +4.9% ex-FX; IFO +8.0%. Net store growth 392 in Q4.
FY25 results: US SSS +3.0%; International SSS +1.9% ex-FX; Global retail sales +5.4% ex-FX; IFO +8.5% (+8.6% ex-FX); 776 net store openings.
Dividend RAISED 15% to $1.99/share (Board approved Feb 18, 2026) — 12th consecutive annual dividend increase. Continued share buybacks.
Q4 deceleration reflects: (a) tough Q3 comp base, (b) intensifying QSR pizza competition, (c) continued macro consumer pressure, (d) international weakness across multiple master franchisees.
Rating: Maintaining Hold. Q4 decel + international weakness offset by FY25 solid results + dividend raise. Fair value range $420-460. Post-print $418.

Results vs. Consensus

Metric	Q4 2025	Street	Beat/Miss
US Same-Store Sales	+3.7% (decel from +5.2% Q3)	+3.5%	+20bp beat
International SSS (ex-FX)	+0.7% (decel from +1.7% Q3)	+1.5%	-80bp miss
Global Retail Sales (ex-FX)	+4.9%	+5.0%	In line
IFO	+8.0%	+9%	-100bp slight miss
Net Store Growth (Q4)	392 globally	~300	Strong

Full Year 2025

Metric	FY25
US Same-Store Sales	+3.0%
International SSS (ex-FX)	+1.9%
Global Retail Sales (ex-FX)	+5.4%
IFO (ex-FX)	+8.6%
Net Store Growth (FY25)	776 globally
Dividend Increase (Feb 2026)	+15% to $1.99/share

Key Topics

1. Q4 US SSS Decel from +5.2% to +3.7%

US SSS decelerated meaningfully from Q3's +5.2% to Q4's +3.7%. While +3.7% modestly beat Street (+3.5%), the sequential decel raises questions about FY26 trajectory. International continued to weaken at +0.7%.

2. Dividend +15% to $1.99/share

Board approved 15% dividend increase to $1.99/share Feb 18, 2026 — 12th consecutive annual increase. Signals continued FCF generation confidence.

3. FY25 +3.0% US Comp / 776 Net Store Growth

FY25 US comp +3.0% reflects solid full-year execution despite Q4 deceleration. 776 net store openings represents strong unit growth tailwind into FY26.

4. International Weakness Continuing

International SSS decelerated from Q3 +1.7% to Q4 +0.7% — macro pressures across master franchisee geographies. International unit growth remains strong (300+ openings Q4) but SSS softness limits comp contribution.

Market Reaction

Stock close Feb 20: ~$420. YTD CY26 -8%.
Feb 23 session: Closed approximately $418 — -0.5%.
Mixed reaction reflecting decel + dividend raise offset.

Thesis Scorecard

Thesis Point	Status
Hungry for MORE strategy	Confirmed (FY25 +3.0%)
International unit growth	Confirmed (776 FY25)
Capital return discipline	Strengthened (dividend +15%)
US comp acceleration sustainability	Failed (Q3 +5.2% → Q4 +3.7%)
International SSS	Decelerating

Action: Maintaining Hold. Fair value range $420-460. Post-print $418 within range.

Independence Disclosure As of the publication date, the author holds no position in DPZ and has no plans to initiate any position in DPZ within the next 72 hours. Aardvark Labs Capital Research maintains a firm-wide policy of not trading any security we cover. No compensation has been received from Domino's Pizza, Inc. or any affiliated party for this research.

Independence & Conflicts

As of the publication date, the author holds no position in DPZ and has no plans to initiate any position in DPZ within the next 72 hours. Aardvark Labs Capital Research maintains a firm-wide policy of not trading any security we cover, does not accept compensation from companies we cover or any affiliated party, and does not accept payment from readers for personalized advice. Our research is independent, unpaid by any stakeholder in the securities discussed, and reflects only our analytical opinions.

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Data Sources & Forward-Looking Statements

Information used in this research is sourced from SEC filings, company investor relations materials, third-party financial data providers, and other publicly available sources. While we strive for accuracy, we make no warranty as to the completeness or correctness of any data presented. Any forward-looking statements, price targets, or rating opinions reflect the author's views at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from projections.

Rating Framework

Aardvark Labs uses a three-tier rating system based on expected 12-month total return relative to the S&P 500:

Outperform — We expect the stock to beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. This reflects a favorable risk/reward based on valuation, fundamentals, and catalysts.
Hold — We expect the stock to perform roughly in line with the S&P 500. The business may be sound, but valuation or near-term uncertainty limits the upside.
Underperform — We expect the stock to trail the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Downside risks outweigh the potential reward at current prices.

Ratings reflect post-earnings risk/reward assessments. A strong beat can still be a Hold if valuation is full; a weak quarter can be an Outperform if the sell-off is overdone.

About the Author

A.N. Burrows is the principal researcher at Aardvark Labs Capital Research. He covers the businesses most analysts overlook — quality compounders, capital-allocation stories, and businesses too small or too dull for sell-side coverage.