Elevance Health (ELV)
Recap: Q1 2026
Maintaining Outperform: A Nonrecurring-Heavy Beat-and-Raise — But the Recovery Got Confirmed AND De-Risked, With the Medicaid Trough Holding and the 2027 MA Rate Firming, Against a Contained $935M CMS Overhang
Recap: Q4 2025
Upgrading to Outperform: The Trough Is Finally a Number — $25.50 for 2026, a −1.75% Medicaid Bottom, and an Explicit ≥12% Snap-Back in 2027 Off a Washed-Out ~13x Base
Recap: Q3 2025
Maintaining Hold: The Reset Held and the Third Cut Didn't Come — But a $1-of-Below-the-Line "Beat" and a 2026 Management Calls "the Trough" Mean the Recovery Still Can't Be Underwritten
Recap: Q2 2025
Initiating at Hold: A Second Straight In-Year Cut Resets FY25 to ~$30, and Management Won't Touch 2026 — Visibility Is Too Poor to Catch a Knife Down 34% in a Year