Revenue Miss, Crypto Down 47%, and a $100M OpEx Guide Raise — The First Real Deceleration Print Forces a Step Down to Hold
Initial Read: Headline revenue miss ($1.07B vs. $1.14B), thin EPS in-line ($0.38 vs. $0.39), and the 2026 Adjusted OpEx + SBC range raised by $100M for Trump Accounts work — stock already -5.9% after-hours to $77.45 and the multiple now has to digest the first quarter where transaction-based revenue actually decelerated; preliminary step down from Outperform to Hold pending call color on whether crypto is bottoming and what Trump Accounts economics actually look like.
Key Takeaways
- Revenue miss of ~$70M. Total net revenues $1.067B (+15% YoY) vs. consensus $1.14B (+23% YoY) — the first meaningful top-line miss of the cycle. Transaction-based revenue grew just 7% YoY and fell 20% QoQ as crypto rolled over harder than expected.
- Crypto weakness deepened, not stabilized. Crypto revenue $134M, down 47% YoY; Robinhood-app crypto notional $24B, down 48% YoY (Q4 2025 was -52%, so the rate of decline has not yet inflected). Bitstamp added $42B notional but is structurally lower-take-rate.
- 2026 OpEx guide raised $100M to $2.7–2.825B. Entirely attributed to building the Trump Accounts UI/app for Treasury — described as "cost-plus with a small margin," but it pulls forward absolute opex while the revenue offset is dilutive to corporate-level margins. The revised guide is now ~22% growth at the midpoint vs. 2025 actual, accelerating from the 18% framed at Q4.
- The wealth franchise is still compounding. Total Platform Assets $307B (+39% YoY), net deposits $17.7B (22% annualized), Gold subs 4.3M (+36% YoY), Banking deposits crossed $2B with 40% direct-deposit penetration at 125K customers, ARPU $157 (+8%). The structural thesis hasn't broken — the cyclical one cracked.
- Preliminary Rating: Hold (from Outperform). A revenue miss, an opex raise, and a stock that's already digesting a -28% peak-to-pre-print drawdown together close the asymmetric risk/reward we underwrote at initiation. Hold is the right posture into the call; we will reassess after Tenev/Verma frame Trump Accounts economics, the crypto run-rate, and Q2's "highest month of the year" comment for equities/options.
Results vs. Consensus
| Metric | Actual Q1 2026 | Consensus | Beat / Miss | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net revenue | $1.067B | $1.14B | Miss | -$73M / -6.4% |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) | $0.38 | $0.39 | Miss | -$0.01 / -2.6% |
| Net income | $346M | ~$355M (implied) | Miss | ~-$9M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $534M | n/a | n/a | +14% YoY; 50.0% margin (-90 bps YoY) |
| Transaction-based revenue | $623M | n/a | n/a | +7% YoY, -20% QoQ |
| Net interest revenue | $359M | n/a | n/a | +24% YoY, -13% QoQ |
| Total Platform Assets | $307B | ~$305B (whisper) | In-line | +39% YoY |
| Net Deposits | $17.7B | n/a | n/a | 22% annualized (now incl. TradePMR) |
| Robinhood Gold subscribers | 4.3M | n/a | n/a | +36% YoY (record) |
| 2026 Adj. OpEx + SBC outlook | $2.7–2.825B | $2.6–2.725B (prior guide) | Raise | +$100M (Trump Accounts) |
Quality of the Miss
This is a clean revenue miss, not a one-time-charge miss. The $73M revenue gap to consensus is overwhelmingly attributable to crypto: with crypto revenue at $134M (-47% YoY, on the Robinhood app -48% YoY notional), and the Street modeling something closer to the mid-$170s based on the back-half-of-Q1 sentiment recovery in BTC, the entire revenue shortfall is in that line. Equities ($82M, +46% YoY) and options ($260M, +8% YoY) both grew double-digit-to-strong, and the standout is "other transaction revenue" at $147M (+320% YoY) — that line is overwhelmingly event-contracts (Prediction Markets), with Q1 setting a record at 8.8 billion event contracts traded. So the new revenue lines are working; the legacy crypto cyclicality is what hit.
Quality of the EPS in-line is mixed. Net income only grew 3% YoY despite revenue +15% YoY, because operating expenses grew 18% YoY ($557M → $656M) and the tax rate jumped from 9.4% (Q1 2025) to 15.8% (Q1 2026). The tax rate normalization alone cost ~$0.04 of EPS — meaning the underlying operational EPS would have been closer to $0.42 on a tax-rate-comparable basis, a beat. But the printed number is what consensus modeled to, and the printed number is in-line. Operating leverage was negative this quarter: total opex margin went from 60% of revenue (Q1 2025) to 61% (Q1 2026), with G&A particularly sharp at +31% YoY, driven partly by $13M of CFO-transition SBC modifications carved out of the non-GAAP measure but still hitting GAAP.
The qualitative knock: the QoQ deltas tell the deceleration story more clearly than YoY. Total revenue -17% QoQ, transaction revenue -20% QoQ, NII -13% QoQ (driven by ~$6B of cash-sweep balances migrating off-balance-sheet to fund margin-book growth — that is, NII migration, not pure rate compression). The balance-sheet shift is good for long-term margin economics (margin book +93% YoY at $17B, vs. cash sweep -8% YoY at $26B) but creates a printed-revenue air pocket the Street did not fully model.
Segment / Revenue Line Detail
| Revenue Line | Q1 2026 | Q1 2025 | YoY | Q4 2025 | QoQ | Aardvark Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Options | $260M | ~$240M | +8% | $222M | +17% | Healthy. 586M contracts (+17% YoY) on record index-options activity. Engagement holding. |
| Cryptocurrency | $134M | $252M | -47% | $358M (Q4 incl. Bitstamp catch-up) | -63% | The bear point we partially confirmed in Q4 fully arrived in Q1. Robinhood-app notional -48% YoY. Tier compression structural. |
| Equities | $82M | ~$56M | +46% | $77M | +6% | Strongest line YoY. $638B notional volume (+54% YoY) — engagement is broad-based, not just options. |
| Other transaction (event contracts) | $147M | ~$35M | +320% | ~$120M | +23% | Prediction Markets is now the third-largest revenue line. 8.8B event contracts in Q1 — a record. Doubled QoQ from Q3 to Q4 to Q1. |
| Net interest revenue | $359M | $290M | +24% | $411M | -13% | QoQ optical hit from ~$6B Cash Sweep → margin-book reclassification. Margin book +93% YoY is the underlying signal. |
| Other revenue (incl. Gold subs) | $85M | $54M | +57% | $96M | -11% | Gold subscription rev $50M (+32% YoY). Subscription mix-shift continues; this is the quietest compounder in the model. |
KPI / Operating-Metric Table
| KPI | Q1 2026 | YoY | QoQ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funded Customers | 27.4M | +1.7M / +6% | +0.2M | Funded-customer growth has slowed materially — the franchise is monetizing the existing base rather than adding net new at the prior pace. |
| Investment Accounts | 29.1M | +8% | +0.4M | Multi-account adoption (per-customer brokerage + IRA + joint) is the wedge. |
| Total Platform Assets | $307B | +39% | +11% | $31B sequential add — net deposits + market gains. |
| Net Deposits | $17.7B | — | — | 22% annualized; trailing-12M $67.8B = 31% growth rate. Now includes TradePMR (first quarter). |
| ARPU (annualized) | $157 | +8% | — | Q4 was ~$181 — ARPU declined QoQ as transaction velocity slowed; YoY is positive on mix. |
| Gold Subscribers | 4.3M | +36% | +0.2M | 15.7% adoption rate (4.3M / 27.4M). Subscription density rising. |
| Equity Notional Volume | $638B | +54% | — | Engagement is real on the equities side. |
| Options Contracts | 586M | +17% | — | Record contract count. |
| Crypto Notional (RH App) | $24B | -48% | — | Q4 was -52%; rate of decline is only marginally improving. Tier compression persists. |
| Crypto Notional (Bitstamp) | $42B | — | — | Bitstamp now larger than RH-app by notional; structurally lower-take-rate market. |
| Event Contracts Traded | 8.8B | — | Record | Prediction Markets is the engine of the new-revenue line. |
| Margin Book | $17.0B | +93% | — | The new NII engine. ~$6B Cash Sweep → margin book this quarter. |
| Robinhood Retirement AUC | $27.4B | +90% | — | Wealth franchise compounding. |
| Robinhood Banking deposits | $2B+ | — | — | 125K Funded Customers, ~40% direct-deposit penetration. Q4 was 50% at 25K — penetration has dipped as the cohort scaled 5x. |
| Gold Card Funded Customers | 800K+ | — | — | Card business at meaningful scale. |
The KPI signal is bifurcated. Asset-side metrics — Total Platform Assets, Margin Book, Retirement AUC, Banking deposits, Gold subs — are all hitting records and continuing to compound at high rates. Customer-side metrics — Funded Customer growth +6% YoY (slowest of the cycle), ARPU declining QoQ, Banking direct-deposit penetration falling from 50% (Q4) to ~40% (Q1) as the cohort 5x'd — are softer than the asset-side reads, suggesting the company is monetizing existing customers harder while net new growth is decelerating. This is the pattern of a maturing franchise, not a struggling one, but it does justify a multiple compression.
Notable Items in the Release
Trump Accounts: $100M of New OpEx, "Cost-Plus With a Small Margin"
The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced in April that Robinhood will be the broker and sole initial trustee for Trump Accounts — described in the press release as "a historic milestone." Working with BNY (Bank of New York Mellon) as custodian/sub-administrator, Robinhood will build and run the standalone Trump Account app, host dedicated customer support, and provide educational content. The 2026 Adj. OpEx + SBC outlook was raised by exactly $100M to a new range of $2.7–2.825B. Management explicitly characterized the contract as "cost-plus with a small margin" — meaning revenues will exceed costs but only modestly. This structurally dilutes group-level operating margin even as it adds top-line.
Assessment: The Trump Accounts win is a strategic positive for distribution and lifetime-value math (younger cohort onboarding through a federal program), but the immediate financial impact is unambiguously dilutive to consensus 2026 margin profiles. The $100M opex add against a "small margin" revenue contribution is the kind of trade Robinhood has the balance sheet to make, but at a forward EPS multiple in the high 30s, every dollar of low-margin opex matters. Modeling implication: 2026 Adj. EBITDA margin will compress by ~100–150 bps vs. our prior estimate.
Cash Sweep → Margin Book Reclassification (~$6B in February)
In February 2026, Robinhood updated its brokerage High-Yield Cash program "to fund growth in margin lending," resulting in over $6B of Cash Sweep balances moving onto the balance sheet as customer free credit balances. This is why Cash Sweep declined 8% YoY to $26.0B while Cash and Deposits jumped 71% YoY to $16.7B. From a P&L perspective, sweep balances earn a small spread over the program-bank network rate; on-balance-sheet free credit balances funding margin loans earn the margin-loan rate (typically 5–7%) less the funding cost. The reclassification is therefore a margin-economics upgrade — but in the printed quarter it reads as a -13% QoQ NII line because the higher-yielding margin-book NII shows up in subsequent quarters as the redeployment compounds.
Assessment: Bullish for forward NII once normalized. Bearish for the reported Q1 NII line. This is a quality-of-earnings positive that the Street will likely under-credit on the print but appreciate on the call.
RVI IPO & OpenAI Investment
Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) — a NYSE-listed closed-end investment fund offering retail exposure to private companies — completed its IPO during Q1, with $312M in net proceeds reflected in the financing-activities cash flow line. Robinhood retains ~52% of RVI and consolidates it. RVI announced a $75M investment in OpenAI (a related-articles mention in the release). This is a new revenue/distribution category — accessing private markets is something the wealth franchise has not previously offered, and the structure (closed-end fund) makes it accessible to non-accredited retail investors.
Assessment: Strategically interesting; immediately financially immaterial. The closed-end-fund vehicle is also balance-sheet-light (consolidated NCI = $369M as of Q1, up from $11M at year-end). Watch for AUM build over the next 2–4 quarters.
Robinhood Chain Public Testnet — 100M+ Transactions Already
Robinhood Chain — the company's financial-grade Ethereum Layer 2 designed to support tokenized real-world assets — went live as a public testnet during Q1 and has already processed over 100M transactions. This is the infrastructure layer behind the Stock Tokens product (live in EU since Q2 2025; 2,000+ tokenized stocks by Q4 2025) and is the long-dated tokenization bet that Tenev has framed as a multi-decade TAM unlock.
Assessment: No revenue contribution yet. The testnet milestone is a credibility/optionality marker rather than a financial event. The interesting question is when (or whether) it goes mainnet and what the take-rate model looks like.
$250M Q1 Repurchases + $1.5B Authorization Refresh
Q1 share repurchases were $250M (3.1M shares at ~$81 average price), and in March the Board refreshed the buyback authorization to $1.5B over approximately three years. Cumulative buybacks since the program launched in Q3 2024 are $1.2B at a $46 average price — a strong capital-allocation execution given HOOD ranged from $20s to ~$80s over that period. The $1.5B / 3yr cadence implies ~$500M/yr, only modestly above the current run rate; this is a moderate-conviction buyback, not a Mark-Zuckerberg-scale balance-sheet leverage event.
Assessment: Capital allocation is consistent and disciplined. With cash at $5.0B and the share count creeping up via SBC (basic shares 884.6M Q1 2025 → 899.2M Q1 2026, +1.6%), the buyback is essentially funding SBC offset rather than reducing share count materially. This is not the buyback that breaks the multiple.
Banking Direct-Deposit Penetration Dipped From 50% to 40% as Cohort 5x'd
Robinhood Banking now has 125K Funded Customers and $2B+ in deposits, with ~40% of customers signed up for direct deposit. Q4 2025 disclosed 50%+ direct-deposit penetration at 25K customers. The cohort scaled 5x QoQ but penetration declined 10 percentage points, which is mathematically expected (early cohorts skew highest-intent) but worth flagging as a leading indicator. In absolute terms, ~50K customers now have direct deposit at Robinhood — a respectable neobank-style number, but the deceleration in penetration is the kind of thing the bear case will latch onto.
Assessment: Mixed. Absolute scale grew; per-customer engagement diluted. The "primary financial account" thesis still has air in it — but the slope is flatter than Q4 framed.
Guidance & Outlook
| Metric | Prior Guide (Q4 2025) | New Guide (Q1 2026) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses + SBC | $2.6B – $2.725B | $2.7B – $2.825B | +$100M (raised) — entirely Trump Accounts |
| 2026 GAAP total operating expenses | Not provided | Not provided | n/a — explicitly excluded due to credit-loss provision and "significant regulatory matters" uncertainty |
| Revenue / EBITDA / EPS guide | Not provided | Not provided | HOOD does not guide top-line or bottom-line |
Implied Math on the OpEx Raise
2025 Adjusted Operating Expenses + SBC actual was approximately $2.21B (sum of disclosed quarterly figures). The new midpoint of $2.7625B implies +25% growth. The prior midpoint of $2.6625B implied +20.5% growth. The original Q4 framing was "deceleration from 22% comparable 2025" — that framing is now broken: the new guide accelerates 2026 growth above 2025's actual. Q1 actual was $607M, which annualizes to $2.43B if held flat, but the year-over-year growth pattern (Q1 always lowest) implies a ramp to ~$2.7–2.8B is reasonable. The point is not whether the company can hit the new guide — it's that the trajectory is now worse than the Q4 frame.
Q2 Color From the CFO Letter
"Q2 is off to a good start in April, as equity and option trading volumes are on track to be the highest month of the year, and even with tax season, net deposits are approximately $5 billion month-to-date." — Shiv Verma, CFO
This is the single most important sentence in the press release for the call setup. "Highest month of the year" for equity/options volumes (in a quarter that just printed +54% YoY equity notional and +17% YoY options contracts) implies April 2026 is running at a Q1+ velocity. $5B of net deposits MTD in April means April alone could deliver close to half of Q1's $17.7B quarterly figure — through what is normally a tax-season trough month. Both signals are operationally bullish for Q2 transaction-based revenue and net-deposit cadence; neither addresses the crypto cyclicality or the OpEx-trajectory questions.
Our Interpretation
Guidance is a mixed-signal-with-a-clear-negative. The negative signal is unambiguous: $100M OpEx raise, dilutive Trump Accounts contract, no GAAP opex outlook because "significant regulatory matters" remain unbudgeted. The mixed signal is the Q2 commentary: April is operationally strong on the franchise lines, but the company is choosing not to quantify or commit. Net read: 2026 EBITDA margins will be lower than the Street had penciled at the Q4 print, and the "scaling new businesses" framing now has to absorb a federal-program contract that wasn't in the model 90 days ago. Multiple compression is justified.
Questions for the Call
- Trump Accounts unit economics — what's the actual margin? "Cost-plus with a small margin" needs quantification. Is "small" 5%? 10%? 2%? At $100M of incremental opex, even 10% net margin = $10M of net income, which is rounding error against a ~$1.5B annual base. Bullish answer: the contract has duration (multi-year) and the customer-acquisition externality is significant. Bearish answer: the margin is genuinely thin and there's no obvious distribution flywheel — pure outsourced-build economics.
- Crypto run-rate: is $134M the floor or are we still finding bottom? Robinhood-app crypto notional declined 48% YoY (Q4 was -52%). Is the rate of decline genuinely flattening, or is the YoY comp simply easier? Bullish answer: April crypto volumes are stabilizing in absolute dollar terms, take rates have stopped compressing, and Bitstamp is starting to scale. Bearish answer: the structural tier-compression cited at Q4 is permanent and the line resets to a lower-trending baseline regardless of bitcoin price.
- Banking direct-deposit penetration: what's the new equilibrium? Penetration fell from 50% (25K cohort) to ~40% (125K cohort). At 1M customers, what's the steady-state? Bullish answer: 30–35% — implying 300–350K customers with direct deposit at scale, which is genuinely competitive with neobank benchmarks. Bearish answer: penetration keeps deteriorating as the marginal customer is acquired through promotional channels rather than primary-account intent.
- Cash Sweep migration to margin book: what's the steady-state allocation? $6B moved in February. Cash Sweep is now $26B vs. $16.7B Cash and Deposits. How much more will migrate, and what's the NII uplift? Bullish answer: another $5–10B can migrate as margin-book demand grows, lifting 2026 NII by $200–400M relative to a flat-balance baseline. Bearish answer: the Feb migration was a one-off tactical move and there is no programmatic redeployment plan.
- Funded Customer growth at +6% YoY — what's the reacceleration plan? This is the slowest funded-customer growth print of the cycle. Is the international push (Singapore in-principle approval) the answer, or is the U.S. franchise saturating? Bullish answer: international plus Trump Accounts plus Robinhood Social will reaccelerate net adds. Bearish answer: the U.S. retail-broker TAM is closer to saturation than the model assumes.
- Rothera / MIAXdx integration progress. The CFTC-licensed exchange acquired in January was supposed to vertically integrate the prediction-markets stack. Q1 disclosed a record 8.8B event contracts traded. Is the integration complete? What's the take-rate uplift potential vs. the current third-party-distribution model? Bullish answer: integration is on track for 2H 2026 and the take-rate uplift is 30–50%. Bearish answer: regulatory complexity is delaying integration into 2027.
Market Reaction
HOOD is trading at $77.45 in after-hours, down 5.91% from the close of $82.31 (per StockTitan Argus, 15-min delayed) — a roughly $4.6B reduction in market cap. The move is consistent with our pre-print direction: a ~6% revenue miss with an OpEx guide raise on a stock that had already drifted lower into the print should clear at ~5–8% down. We do not expect material recovery on the call unless Tenev frames Trump Accounts as more durable than "cost-plus" and Verma quantifies an NII uplift from the Cash Sweep migration. A second-leg-down to -8% to -10% on close tomorrow is in the range of plausibility if the call is light on quantification.
Model Implications
| Item | Prior View (Post-Q4 2025) | Post-Q1 2026 | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Total Net Revenue | ~$5.5B (consensus had drifted to $5.4B) | ~$5.2–5.3B | Crypto run-rate reset to ~$140M/qtr from ~$200M assumption; offset modestly by stronger Q2 transaction commentary. |
| 2026 Adj. OpEx + SBC | $2.66B (midpoint of prior) | $2.76B (midpoint of new) | Trump Accounts $100M add per management. |
| 2026 Adj. EBITDA Margin | ~52–54% | ~50–51% | Top-line lower, opex higher; ~250 bps margin compression. |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | ~$2.30 | ~$2.05–2.10 | Revenue cut + opex raise + tax rate normalization. |
| Fair-value framing | $95–105 (25–28x forward EPS, justified by wealth-franchise compounding) | $78–88 (35x revised forward EPS, multiple resets to reflect crypto cyclicality) | Multiple no longer holds the prior premium; deceleration print warrants reset to the lower end of the historical band. |
Valuation: At $77.45 after-hours, HOOD trades at ~37x our revised 2026 EPS estimate. That is no longer cheap relative to the new growth and margin trajectory — it is roughly fair. The stock needs either crypto stabilization or a clearer path on Trump Accounts economics to justify a return to the prior premium multiple. Hold is the right posture; we will reassess after the call.
Thesis Scorecard
| Thesis Point | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bull #1: Active-trader velocity (equities + options engagement) | Confirmed | Equities +46% rev / +54% notional; options +8% rev / +17% contracts; CFO says April is highest month of the year. Engagement is real. |
| Bull #2: Gold flywheel (subs, ARPU, retention) | Confirmed | 4.3M subs (+36% YoY), $50M Q1 sub revenue (+32%), 15.7% adoption rate. The quietest compounder in the model. |
| Bull #3: B2B / wealth wrap (TradePMR, Bitstamp, Banking, Strategies, Retirement, Card) | Confirmed | Banking $2B deposits / 125K customers; Strategies 285K / $1.6B AUM; Retirement AUC $27.4B (+90% YoY); Card 800K. All at record scale. |
| Bull #4: Operating leverage / margin expansion | Challenged | Adj EBITDA margin 50.0% Q1 2026 vs. 50.7% Q1 2025 — a -90 bps decompression. 2026 OpEx guide raised. Operating leverage broke this quarter. |
| Bull #5: Tokenization optionality | Neutral | Robinhood Chain testnet hit 100M transactions but is not yet revenue-generating. Optionality intact; no incremental confirmation. |
| Bull #6: Prediction Markets as a structural new revenue line | Confirmed | Other transaction revenue $147M (+320% YoY); 8.8B contracts (record). Now Robinhood's third-largest revenue line. |
| Bull #7: Banking as primary-financial-account wedge | Neutral | Absolute scale up 5x QoQ ($2B deposits, 125K customers); direct-deposit penetration down from 50% to ~40% as cohort scaled. Mixed. |
| Bear #1: Crypto/options cyclicality | Confirmed (deeper) | Crypto -47% YoY revenue, -48% YoY notional. Worse than Q4's -52% rate-of-decline framing implied. Structural tier compression as called. |
| Bear #2: NII compression in a cutting cycle | Mitigated | NII +24% YoY despite rate cuts, on margin-book +93% YoY and the Cash Sweep reclassification. The structural NII engine is working — just printed messily this quarter. |
| Bear #3: 2026 reinvestment OpEx trajectory | Confirmed (intensified) | Guide raised $100M for Trump Accounts; "cost-plus, small margin." Group-level 2026 EBITDA margin will compress. |
| Bear #4 (NEW): Funded-customer growth deceleration | Emerged | +6% YoY funded customer growth is the slowest of the cycle. International expansion (Singapore in-principle) and Trump Accounts are the offsets, but neither is in run-rate. |
Overall: Thesis weakened. Three of the four bull pillars confirmed; one (operating leverage) cracked. Two of the three original bear points confirmed deeper than Q4 framed; a new bear point (funded-customer growth deceleration) emerged. The franchise is still real — Total Platform Assets +39% YoY, prediction-markets revenue +320% YoY, Gold subs 4.3M — but the path to the prior fair-value range has lengthened.
Preliminary Action: Step down from Outperform to Hold. The asymmetric risk/reward we underwrote at initiation was predicated on (1) revenue acceleration, (2) margin expansion, and (3) Banking/Wealth optionality compounding faster than crypto cyclicality. Q1 2026 prints (1) decelerating, (2) compressing, and (3) compounding-but-with-friction. Hold reflects: structural thesis still intact, valuation now full at the revised numbers, and no asymmetric upside until either crypto stabilizes or the call provides clarity on Trump Accounts unit economics. We will revisit in the Recap after Tenev/Verma speak at 5:00 PM ET.