Hold

Global Comp +5.7% Best in Cycle, US Accelerates to +4.0%, FY25 Systemwide $139B, Loyalty 210M Users — Maintaining Hold

Published: February 12, 2026, 8:00 AM ET By A.N. Burrows MCD | Q4 2025 / FY2025 Earnings Analysis

Key Takeaways

Q4 2025 global comp sales +5.7% — best in cycle (vs +3.8% Q2, +3.6% Q3). US accelerated to +4.0% (from +2.4% Q3). IOM +6.0%; IDL +7.0%. The broad-based acceleration suggests value strategy + Snack Wraps + Big Arch + loyalty all converging to drive sequential improvement.
FY25 systemwide sales $139B (+7%; +5% CC) — +$9B in absolute dollars ($7B CC). Total revenue $26.0B (+4% YoY). FY25 EPS $12.00 vs $11.45 FY24 (+4.8%). Adjusted operating margin mid-to-high 40%.
Loyalty step-change: 90-day active users +19% YoY to ~210M (from 185M Q2). Loyalty markets expanded from 60 to 70 in Q4 alone. FY25 loyalty sales ~$37B (+20% YoY). On track toward 250M users EOY 2027.
"McDonald's value leadership is working." (Chris Kempczinski, CEO). US bifurcated consumer beginning to show response to McValue + Snack Wraps + Daily Double + core menu pricing initiatives.
Rating: Maintaining Hold. Q4 acceleration is encouraging but the question is sustainability into FY26 against tougher comps. Stock at ~$322 post-print reflects partial multiple expansion on the acceleration. Fair value range raised modestly to $295-330. Limited upside without sustained US acceleration.

Results vs. Consensus

Metric	Q4 2025	Street	Beat/Miss
Global Comp Sales	+5.7% (best in cycle)	+4.5%	+120bp beat
US Comp Sales	+4.0% (vs +2.4% Q3)	+3.5%	+50bp beat
IOM Comp Sales	+6.0%	+5.0%	+100bp beat
IDL Comp Sales	+7.0%	+5.5%	+150bp beat
Adjusted EPS	$3.04	$2.97	+$0.07 / +2%
Loyalty Active Users	~210M (+19% YoY)	n/a	+25M vs Q2

Full Year 2025 Comparison

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	YoY
Total Revenue	$26.0B	$25.0B	+4%
Systemwide Sales	$139B	$130B	+7% (+5% CC)
FY EPS	$12.00	$11.45	+4.8%
Loyalty Markets	70	50	+20 markets
Loyalty Active Users	~210M	~177M	+19%
Loyalty Sales (FY)	~$37B	~$31B	+20%

Segment Performance

Segment	Q4 Comp	FY25 Comp	Q4 Trend
US	+4.0%	+2.7% (est)	Accelerating from +2.4% Q3
IOM	+6.0%	+4.3% (est)	Accelerating from +3.9% Q3
IDL	+7.0%	+5.9% (est)	China + Japan momentum
Global	+5.7%	+4.3% (est)	Best quarterly comp in cycle

Key Topics

1. US Acceleration to +4.0% Confirms Value Strategy

US comp +4.0% in Q4 = best quarterly print in 18 months. Acceleration from +2.4% Q3 reflects McValue platform full ramp + Snack Wraps holiday performance + improved core menu value perception.

"McDonald's value leadership is working."
— Chris Kempczinski, CEO

Assessment: The US comp acceleration is the most important positive in the print. Whether it sustains into FY26 (against tougher comps) is the open question. One quarter doesn't break the bear thesis; two consecutive quarters of +3.5%+ US comps would.

2. Loyalty Step-Change to 210M Users

90-day active loyalty users reached ~210M at year-end — +19% YoY. Loyalty markets expanded from 60 (Q3) to 70 (Q4). FY25 loyalty sales $37B (+20% YoY).

Assessment: Loyalty is now structural to MCD's growth narrative. With +33M users added in 2025 (vs ~177M end of 2024), the pace toward 250M EOY 2027 is on track. Loyalty users compound visit frequency 2.5x — the structural margin contributor.

3. Q4 Broad-Based Acceleration All 3 Segments

All three segments accelerated sequentially: US +2.4% → +4.0%; IOM +3.9% → +6.0%; IDL +6.0% → +7.0%. The simultaneous acceleration suggests value/marketing/loyalty mechanisms converging.

Assessment: Broad-based acceleration is harder to sustain than narrow acceleration but also harder to attribute to one-off events. Multi-quarter validation needed.

4. FY25 Systemwide $139B Crosses Milestone

FY25 systemwide sales crossed $139B (+$9B YoY). 70 loyalty markets covers majority of global business. FY EPS $12.00 represents another year of mid-single-digit EPS growth on the defensive base.

Market Reaction

Stock close Feb 10: ~$310. YTD CY26 +1%.
Feb 11 session: Closed approximately $322 — +4% (+$12). Volume ~4M (~1.4x avg).
Sector: QSR peers +1-2%.

Thesis Scorecard

Thesis Point	Status
Value strategy working internationally	Confirmed
US bifurcated consumer pressure	Improving (US +4.0%)
Loyalty scaling toward 250M	Strengthened (+19% to 210M)
US comp acceleration sustainability	Open (need 2-3 more quarters)
Full valuation	Open (~$322 = 27x FY25 EPS)

Action: Maintaining Hold. Fair value range raised modestly to $295-330. Post-print $322 within range.

Independence Disclosure As of the publication date, the author holds no position in MCD and has no plans to initiate any position in MCD within the next 72 hours. Aardvark Labs Capital Research maintains a firm-wide policy of not trading any security we cover. No compensation has been received from McDonald's Corporation or any affiliated party for this research.

Independence & Conflicts

As of the publication date, the author holds no position in MCD and has no plans to initiate any position in MCD within the next 72 hours. Aardvark Labs Capital Research maintains a firm-wide policy of not trading any security we cover, does not accept compensation from companies we cover or any affiliated party, and does not accept payment from readers for personalized advice. Our research is independent, unpaid by any stakeholder in the securities discussed, and reflects only our analytical opinions.

Not Investment Advice

This publication is research and commentary, not investment advice. Nothing on this website constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific security for any specific person. All research is general in nature and does not consider any reader's individual financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance. Readers should consult their own licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including potential loss of principal.

Regulatory Status

Aardvark Labs Capital Research is not a registered investment advisor under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 or any state securities law. We publish research under the publisher's exclusion from the Investment Advisers Act (Section 202(a)(11)(D)), as clarified by Lowe v. SEC (1985). We provide no personalized investment advice and offer no advisory services to individuals.

Data Sources & Forward-Looking Statements

Information used in this research is sourced from SEC filings, company investor relations materials, third-party financial data providers, and other publicly available sources. While we strive for accuracy, we make no warranty as to the completeness or correctness of any data presented. Any forward-looking statements, price targets, or rating opinions reflect the author's views at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from projections.

Rating Framework

Aardvark Labs uses a three-tier rating system based on expected 12-month total return relative to the S&P 500:

Outperform — We expect the stock to beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. This reflects a favorable risk/reward based on valuation, fundamentals, and catalysts.
Hold — We expect the stock to perform roughly in line with the S&P 500. The business may be sound, but valuation or near-term uncertainty limits the upside.
Underperform — We expect the stock to trail the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Downside risks outweigh the potential reward at current prices.

Ratings reflect post-earnings risk/reward assessments. A strong beat can still be a Hold if valuation is full; a weak quarter can be an Outperform if the sell-off is overdone.

About the Author

A.N. Burrows is the principal researcher at Aardvark Labs Capital Research. He covers the businesses most analysts overlook — quality compounders, capital-allocation stories, and businesses too small or too dull for sell-side coverage.