FY26 Revenue $8.2B (+42%); FY27 Outlook Raised to ~$11B (+30%); FY28 ~$15B (~+40%) with EPS >$5; Data Center +40% FY27 / +~50% FY28; Celestial AI + XConn Acquisitions Closed; Q4 Exits at $3B+ Run Rate — Maintaining Outperform

Coverage Update from Q3

We upgraded to Outperform at the December Q3 print at ~$98 with $95-$130 fair value range, citing FY27 outlook formalization, Celestial AI acquisition, and multi-customer custom diversification as the key thesis pillars. The Q4 print + FY26 close validates each: FY26 delivered $8.2B revenue (+42%); FY27 outlook raised again to $11B (vs December framework $10B); FY28 introduced at $15B (+~40%) with EPS >$5; Celestial + XConn acquisitions closed; multi-quarter sequential growth profile through FY27. The thesis is materializing exactly as projected. Stock is roughly flat from December levels — but the multi-year framework expansion supports continued upside as the next 4 quarters of execution unfold.

Results vs. Consensus

Q4 Scorecard

FY26 Full Year Summary

FY27 Outlook — Raised Materially Above December Framework

FY28 Outlook — First Formal Multi-Year Framework

Quality-of-Beat Callout

Revenue / Margin / Cash Assessment

Q4 revenue $2.219B (+22% YoY, +7% QoQ) — beat guide. Sequential growth across all data center key product lines: optical interconnects, custom silicon, switching, storage all up. Communications + other +2% QoQ +26% YoY.

FY26 $8.195B (+42% YoY). The +42% YoY for a $5.7B base business is extraordinary scaling — and the +46% data center growth is the engine. Custom doubled YoY to $1.5B. Total capital return $2.245B FY26 vs ~$933M FY25.

Q4 non-GAAP gross margin 59.0% (vs 59.7% Q3). The decline reflects custom mix expansion (custom carries below-average margin). Q1 FY27 guided 58.25%-59.25% — continuing the mix pressure as custom scales. Non-GAAP op margin 35.7% — operating leverage continues with opex disciplined.

FY26 operating cash flow $374M Q4 + $1.75B+ annual. Strong free-cash conversion. Net debt-EBITDA 0.57x — capital structure healthy. Auto Ethernet $2.5B proceeds + Celestial $5-7B paid in stock + cash + earnout — capital deployment aggressive but funded.

Segment / Product Detail

Data Center — $1.65B Q4 (+21% YoY, +9% QoQ); >$6B FY26 (+46%)

Interconnect — Outpacing CapEx; +50% YoY FY27

Murphy framed interconnect as the upside-raised driver this quarter. FY27 interconnect +50% YoY (vs prior 30%). 800G demand robust, long life cycle ahead. 1.6T entered production H2 FY26; very strong bookings from multiple Tier-1 customers for FY27 ramp. 400 gig per lane demonstrated at OFC — positions for 3.2T (CY2028 production on 2nm). Coherent light shipping; 2-nanometer 800G coherent DSP introduced for next-gen DCI modules.

Murphy on Aaron Rakers' question about CapEx vs accelerator growth:

"Your observation is absolutely correct. And that's why even as we look at the upward momentum we see in the business for this year, a big part of that change is in that electro-optics portfolio. We had been calling it kind of closer to CapEx as we were modeling what we thought we could do this year. … But now it's clearly growing more like accelerator growth and more like this sort of accelerated CapEx growth. So yes, it's growing like 50% plus this year now. And that momentum is going to continue into fiscal '28."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Scale-Up Interconnect — Celestial Photonic Fabric Track

Celestial AI acquisition closed. CPO revenue from Celestial on track for $500M annualized run rate Q4 FY28 → $1B Q4 FY29. Marvell engineering and operations fully engaged in bringing first-generation chiplet into high-volume manufacturing. Strong interest from a broad range of customers following deal announcement.

Scale-up interconnect market estimated to exceed $10B by 2030 (switch ~$6B + interconnect dollar content ~$6B, total >$10B).

AEC + Retimer — Doubling FY26 to FY27

Design wins with 3 Tier-1 US hyperscalers (vs 2 Q3) + multiple emerging hyperscalers + model builders + hardware OEMs. "Golden Cable" initiative — strategic program with software + reference designs enabling ecosystem partners to deploy AECs at scale. Hyperscale customers benefit from access to multiple high-volume cable OEMs offering fully compatible AECs on Marvell DSP.

Combined AEC + retimer revenue more than doubles FY26 to FY27.

Custom — $1.5B FY26 → >20% FY27; Doubles FY27 → FY28

Custom doubled in FY26 to $1.5B. FY27 +>20% YoY. Growth from:

• Lead XPU program: transition to next generation in 2H FY27 with POs covering all of FY27
• XPU attach: CXL + custom NIC ramping; first CXL custom shipping Q1 FY26
• FY28: new Tier-1 XPU program ramping to high-volume production — "firm volume requirements for all of next year and are planning for high-volume manufacturing"

CXL momentum strong — "A recent white paper from a leading hyperscaler on next-generation LLM inference architectures highlighted, near-memory processing is a key opportunity to improve model performance. They cited Marvell's structure a processor as an example of a CXL-enabled solution."

Line of sight to >$2B revenue by FY29 from just NIC + CXL XPU attach categories.

Data Center Switching — >$300M FY26; >$600M FY27

FY26 switch revenue exceeded $300M (entirely scale-out). FY27 expected >$600M (raised from $500M in December). 12.8T workhorse + 51.2T ramping. 100T sampling H1 FY27.

Scale-Up Switching — XConn Acquisition Adds PCIe + CXL

XConn closed at start of FY27. Adds advanced PCIe Gen 6 + CXL 3.1 switching. 256 lanes; monolithic architecture; highest radix; lowest latency. Engaged with 20+ customers prior to acquisition.

UALink 115T + 57T scale-up switches: sampling H2 FY27, production FY28. Combined with Celestial CPO integration — purpose-built end-to-end optical scale-up platform.

Data Center Storage — Solid Recovery

SSD + HDD markets both recovered. Continued contribution.

Communications + Other — $567M Q4 (+26% YoY)

Q4 +2% QoQ; +26% YoY. FY27 +10% YoY. Q1 FY27 +LSD QoQ, +30% YoY. Enterprise networking + carrier infrastructure recovery continuing.

The Multi-Year Framework — FY27 to FY28

The most consequential disclosure of the call is the explicit FY27 + FY28 financial framework. This is Marvell's strongest multi-year framework ever — detailed segmentation, dollar magnitudes, growth rates per segment.

FY27 Detailed Build-Up

• Total revenue ~$11B (+~30% YoY)
• Data center +40% YoY (vs +25% December framing)
  • Interconnect: >50% YoY (above CapEx growth)
  • Custom: >20% YoY (transition + XPU attach + scale-up XPU)
  • Switching: >$600M (vs prior $500M)
  • Storage + other: solid growth
• Comms + other +10% YoY
• Q4 FY27 exit run rate >$3B
• Each quarter sequential growth
• Y/Y growth accelerates each quarter

FY28 Detailed Framework

• Total revenue ~$15B (+~40% YoY)
• Data center ~$11.5B (~+50% YoY)
  • Custom doubles (~$3.6B)
  • Interconnect significantly above CapEx growth
  • Switching continues meaningful ramp
  • New Tier-1 XPU program ramping
• Comms + other low-single-digit growth
• Celestial + XConn ~$250M aggregate
• Non-GAAP EPS >$5

Outlook Progression Over Six Months

Assessment: The pace of framework upward revision is exceptional. Each quarter, the FY27 outlook has stepped up roughly $500M-$1B. Each step has been justified by accelerating CapEx growth + bookings + visibility. The FY28 introduction at $15B with EPS >$5 is the multi-year framework that supports the current valuation and provides foundation for continued upside.

Key Topics & Management Commentary

1. FY27 Outlook Raised to ~$11B — Multi-Quarter Pattern of Upgrades

"Today's outlook approaching $11 billion raises our forecast by almost another $1 billion. Importantly, this outlook is driven by Marvell's organic businesses as the recently closed acquisitions are not expected to contribute meaningfully until fiscal 2028. The increase in our overall revenue outlook is all being driven by our data center business. Since December 2025, cloud CapEx expectations have continued to increase, and we have seen our bookings continue to accelerate."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Assessment: Three consecutive quarters of framework upgrade — from $9.4B in September to $11B in March — reflects the genuine demand acceleration. Importantly, this is organic Marvell business, not Celestial / XConn (those contribute FY28+).

2. FY28 Introduced at ~$15B; EPS >$5

"As a result, we expect Marvell's overall revenue in fiscal 2028 to grow close to 40% year-over-year, reaching approximately $15 billion, roughly $2 billion higher than the outlook we provided in our December earnings call, and driving our non-GAAP EPS to well over $5. This outlook is based on demand we are seeing now and designs that are already in execution."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

The "demand we are seeing now and designs that are already in execution" framing is critical — this is bottoms-up framework based on current bookings + design-win pipeline, not assumption-based modeling.

3. Three Consecutive Years of 40%+ Data Center Growth

"Achievement of our forecast would result in three straight years of data center revenue growth compounding at well over 40%."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

FY26 +46% → FY27 +40% → FY28 +~50%. Compounded $4.1B FY25 data center base growing to ~$11.5B+ FY28 — nearly 3x in 3 years.

4. Celestial AI + XConn Acquisitions Closed

"Let me begin by extending a warm welcome to the Celestial AI and XConn team. We recently closed both acquisitions and the teams are working closely together with joint product road map discussions in full swing with customers."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Celestial CPO ramp on track ($500M Q4 FY28 → $1B Q4 FY29). XConn adds PCIe Gen 6 + CXL 3.1 switching with 256 lanes. "XConn was already engaged with more than 20 customers prior to the acquisition."

5. Interconnect Now Growing >50% in FY27 (vs Prior 30%)

The biggest framework upgrade. Interconnect growing closer to accelerator growth than CapEx growth — reflecting attach rate of optics increasing per XPU + 1.6T price premium + content increase per generation.

6. Custom Doubles FY27 → FY28

Three drivers: continued growth from existing programs, XPU attach (custom NIC + CXL), new Tier-1 XPU program ramping. Murphy explicit: "We have firm volume requirements for all of next year and are planning for high-volume manufacturing" for the new Tier-1 XPU.

7. Switch Business Raised to >$600M FY27

Raised from $500M December framing. 12.8T workhorse + 51.2T ramping + 100T sampling H1 FY27.

8. Scale-Up Switching — UALink + Ethernet

Marvell + XConn combined creates significantly larger team. UALink 115T sampling H2 FY27, production FY28. Ethernet-based roadmap in parallel. Celestial CPO integrated directly with switches — end-to-end optical scale-up platform.

9. 2-Nanometer Momentum

"We're seeing an unprecedented level of activity across multiple new engagements as hyperscalers increased their cadence of custom chip development. … we are seeing a massive opportunity on 2-nanometer and below process technologies."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

The 3.2T optical transition expected to require 2-nanometer solutions (CY2028 production). Custom programs accelerating to 2nm. Murphy: "and even talked about next-generation A16 and A14 technologies" per Harlan Sur's question — the technology pipeline extends well beyond 2nm.

10. Capital Allocation Discipline

FY26 returned $2.245B to shareholders through buyback + dividends. Q4 buyback $200M (vs $300M Q3 + $1B ASR Q3). Going forward, capital return continues with discipline post Celestial + XConn closes.

11. The "Noise" Theme — Murphy's Frustration

Murphy explicit on the multi-quarter ASIC controversy: "I want to take a moment to thank our global team for staying focused despite the external noise, and delivering consistent execution, which has enabled record results and positioned us to capitalize on what we expect will be a massive AI opportunity ahead." The controversies have been retired by execution.

Analyst Q&A

Customer concentration + diversification profile

Q: "Beyond the magnitude of the revenue growth, can you just talk about the profile of it? Is the customer base broadening? People are always worried especially in your custom business about the concentration of it. So I just wanted to get a little bit more color on the shape of the demand from a customer perspective?"
— Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank

A: "We're deeply engaged across the entire ecosystem, extremely strong position with the top four U.S. hyperscalers and then the next level. And each of them, we have a different concentration and revenue mix. … if you look at this year and you look at us driving the company to $11 billion, and then you unpack things like custom, it's not that big a percentage of the total. So that's not what's driving our concentration. … we're quite diversified across each of them. … over time, even on the custom business, as you look out through fiscal '28 and fiscal '29, we've got 20-plus design wins, or products now, sockets that are either in production or going into production, it's going to layer in across all those companies as well. So the diversification is only going to get better over time."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Custom acceleration profile + exit rate

Q: "On your custom XPU and XPU attached subsegment, OpenAI recently inked a partnership with your lead XPU, customer to consume, I think, something like 2 gigawatts worth of your lead customers, next-gen and next-gen XPU. … With our better outlook for custom this year, and with you already starting to ramp your lead customers next-gen XPU program, do you still anticipate a stronger second half step-up of this XPU program? Or is it more of a linear ramp through the year now?"
— Harlan Sur, JPMorgan

A: "Custom, we have said was going to be a stronger second half due to a program transition. That's still the case. And that — the type of exit rate you're talking about is certainly still intact and probably has an upward bias to it. If you look at the exit rate we're talking about for the whole company now, we're looking at north of $3 billion. So within that custom continues to have some real upside to it. … the revenue growth is going to continue into fiscal '28 which is basically those programs from the second half now having a full year. … and then layering in our new program with a new Tier 1 hyperscaler, which is in its early stages, but just even the rough plug we have for them, is significantly lower than actually the wafers that we're planning on starting the material and the production plan we have with our manufacturing supply chain."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Optics outgrowth vs CapEx

Q: "Matt, you've talked about in the past that your ability to kind of outgrow the pace of what we're seeing in CapEx spend. So I guess my question is, we've seen some massive upward provisions in CapEx. I think most people look at that and say, 'Hey, we're looking at like 60% plus growth this year.' Do you think you can grow at that level?"
— Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo

A: "Your observation is absolutely correct. And that's why even as we look at the upward momentum we see in the business for this year, a big part of that change is in that electro-optics portfolio. We had been calling it kind of closer to CapEx as we were modeling what we thought we could do this year back in the September call and then even in the — in my December call. But now it's clearly growing more like — more like accelerator growth and more like this sort of accelerated CapEx growth. So yes, it's growing like 50% plus this year now. And that momentum is going to continue, okay, into fiscal '28."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Custom FY27 magnitude + new XPU customer timing

Q: "I don't want to ask on the custom business. So I think you feel very confident about the trajectory. I'm just kind of curious, one, can you just help us with '26? Because I mean, you have the big broad swath, but I mean, is that custom business growing 30% this year? I just want to figure out the base that you're going to double. And can you talk about that second major XPU customer? … what kind of confidence do you have in the timing of that program?"
— Blayne Curtis, Jefferies

A: "For fiscal '27 we had been indicating after the double from last year, it would grow 20% this year. So we're just saying that's north of that. … in the ballpark, but higher. … the reason we're confident is we have line of sight in terms of — well, first of all, we have history, right? We've built these large scale custom programs before. We've done these ramps before. We have a good sense of when the product is going to go through its key milestones through NPI. We have had very detailed discussions and alignment around the manufacturing plan, and we've aligned up a corridor for fiscal '28 for production on this that would be a lot higher than what I'm indicating to you. I think we're budgeting at the moment for — is there a delay? Does it take longer, et cetera. And plus, I think at the moment, it seems like a lot of folks aren't really believing it's maybe going to do anything. But I think our plug is very, very reasonable for next year Blayne in terms of what's there."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

What got better since December — $2B upward revision drivers

Q: "I wanted to ask the question about what got better in a different way? I mean, if you could just unpack since December, the $2 billion, especially the — how fiscal '28 got $2 billion better since December? What — if we can unpack that and what exactly got better? And then potentially, I'm going to be a little greedy, what can carry into the next year as well, calendar '28 of those signs that you saw since then?"
— Ben Reitzes, Melius Research

A: "Some of that is just the progression in terms of time and getting better visibility and more concrete. And then that just ripples into the … calendar '27. But on top of that, we've now got very firm requirements and understand the profile, in particular the interconnect business. And that is, I think we had called it very conservatively, to be frank. And I think even a few analysts last quarter kind of [ dinged ] us saying, well, you're plugging your interconnect business at CapEx, but it really looks more like it should be tied to GPU, XPU. … this is all underwritten Ben, by extremely strong bookings and backlog layering in and then the detailed conversations with our customers around supply planning. … in a way, yes, it's some upward revisions and that's part of it is just because we have more data, but it actually is also validating, I think, the plan we set actually four years ago about what we thought we could go off and do."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

AEC + retimer base + multi-year contribution

Q: "I think in the preamble, Matt, you talked about AEC and retimers more than doubling in the fiscal year. Could you maybe give us some perspective on the base there?"
— Tom O'Malley, Barclays

A: "Yes. Tom. Yes, this is still an emerging area for us. So we're — it's doubling — over doubling this year, but it's probably in the $200 million range is what I would say. I mean, we actually — I think based on some of the things we're looking at, maybe that goes higher, but that just gives you a sense of the magnitude. But it's going to keep going from there. … once they start doubling, they kind of keep doubling, and you know this market quite well. … we made the bet when you go back to even the Inphi acquisition five years ago on optics and pluggable optics, in particular, and then now with Celestial also, on CPO on the scale upside."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

New XPU customer exclusivity

Q: "When we look at the pattern of your first large XPU program, right, you had a very strong start, followed by competition from another supplier. How would you handicap kind of your exclusivity at the large new XPU customer you plan to start at next year?"
— Vivek Arya, Bank of America

A: "We feel very good about our position. These are very deep engagements we have with our customers. We're two hands on the steering wheel on this. This is multi-generational in nature. Given the rate of innovation and the pace that the technology is moving at, it's really in everybody's best interest to plan, not just one generation out but even farther. And so we've really been able to do that, I think, across the Board with our customers. … the sustainability of that. It still needs to ramp obviously. But certainly, the CapEx envelope is out there to really consume a lot of product, and we're very encouraged by what we see from a road map perspective."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

800G vs 1.6T mix in optics

Q: "I was hoping you could give us a bit of an update on the mix of the opto electronic business. So you talked about 1.6 already shipping. But my understanding is that 800-gig is definitely going to be the bigger volumes this year."
— Tore Svanberg, Stifel

A: "We've been saying this for a while that 800 was going to be sort of stronger for longer. … as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we had significant shipments actually of 1.6T at the end of last year, and it's going to ramp again pretty hard this year. But 800 will still be the majority. I think it's going to take probably through — I mean, even next year, 800 is still going to be strong."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Supply chain readiness for growth

Q: "With all the growth that you're looking at here, I wonder if you see anything on the supply chain, that could be challenging for you. My sense is you've come a long way in terms of supply chain management since a couple of years ago, but just any updates there would be great?"
— Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley

A: "We've been in a tight supply environment for anything that touches AI, advanced node wafer fabrication, advanced packaging, large body substrate since the launch of ChatGPT. And against that backdrop, to your point, we were still able to grow the company north of 40% in total revenue last year. So we clearly have very, very good relationships with our suppliers. But I would argue that really what helps us we've been forecasting this growth for quite some time. And by giving them multiple years of visibility of what we're going to need and ramping into these numbers is really helping us. And so I'm very confident we've secured the supply that we need for all the growth that Matt outlined this year, next year and beyond."
— Christopher Koopmans, President & COO

$15B revenue / $5 EPS framework — operating leverage

Q: "It's great to hear the increased visibility you have business in the next year, but If I think about the guidance for $15 billion of revenue next year, and $5 of earnings, roughly speaking, that's about 15% to where I see the peak consensus being for next year's revenue, but only about half of that on the earnings side. So can you maybe unpack a bit of what are the moving pieces below the top line?"
— Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs

A: "Yes, that's like just a floor like it's 5-plus. … on the top line, we gave you a framework. And then you can also take, basically where we're going to exit this year and you could use whatever number you want to model finally in your model, but we're saying put in 3, or a bit more. And then if you actually just kind of roll through some of the guidance we've given you already for this year on OpEx and the moving pieces on gross margin, we actually start to get to our target operating model, margin model exiting the year. And that probably continues through the next year is a safe assumption. So the number if you put in 15, and you put in that, it probably — it floats above $5. … we're going to get leverage — we're in the mid-30s op margins right now."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

CPO scale-up + Innovium integration + rack-scale

Q: "So mine is around kind of big picture, like the CPO scale-up world. Perhaps if you could describe what it looks like, what it looks like for Marvell? But also in your prepared remarks, you talked about integrating Celestial, it sounds like into the Innovium platform. I was wondering, are there potentially like UALink switch trays that you might be able to integrate this into as well?"
— Christopher Rolland, Susquehanna

A: "On the initial plan on Celestial — and where we — and just by the way, on the big picture side, our view pretty consistently for some time now has been that the deployment of CPO and scale out would be relatively limited relative to the — especially relative to the amount of pluggable transceivers that we're going to get deployed. … On the scale up, and you mentioned UAL, that's a perfect use case where that is where we see that CPO technology inflecting in a pretty big way and Celestial brought us a pretty significant design win and engagement in that area. And that's what we're trying to drive for next year. So when we ramp it next year, at the end of next year, the — that would be serving the scale-up application and it would be both an integration of the photonic fabric chiplet into the XPU, as well as on the switch side."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

Why be in custom vs all-in on interconnect

Q: "When you look at these AI systems that your customers are building, it sounds like the way you're talking about it that there's a bigger bottleneck on the connectivity side and the processor side. … what's the argument for, why not shift your process or resources to focus more on connectivity? It seems like your lead is a lot more obvious on the connectivity side, it's a higher margin business. … And by contrast, the processor side sounds like it's quite noisy on the competitive front."
— Mark Lipacis, Evercore ISI

A: "We are absolutely investing to win on interconnect. Like we're not sort of trading anything off there. … one of the strategic rationales that I had for that deal [Avera] was that it would put Marvell in a product area where we had to be at the bleeding edge. … We've grown that business from zero to $1.5 billion. It's going to grow again this year. It's going to double the year after. And it's going to be a significant revenue growth driver for Marvell. So I'm not compromising anything on the rest of the portfolio to be in that business. … this business also gets significant funding and contribution from our customers who pay us NRE and put their commitment in to make sure that those programs are successful. … if you actually look at last year and all the different things that came out, and all the different noise that was out there, it was all wrong. … we're going to be in the business. Our customers want me to be in this business, and we're going to drive a major significant revenue company at Marvell. I'm very fired up on this topic."
— Matt Murphy, CEO

What They're Not Saying

• Specific Celestial purchase price. Still not detailed.
• Lead customer for Celestial CPO not named. AWS strongly implied via the warrant agreement extension.
• New Tier-1 XPU customer not named. Industry presumes Microsoft.
• FY29 framework not explicitly framed. Implied via Celestial $1B Q4 FY29 trajectory but not formalized.
• 2nm program-specific timing. "Heavy activity" but no customer or revenue specifics.
• Gross margin floor. The custom mix pressure continues; long-term gross margin floor undefined.

Market Reaction

• Pre-print (Mar 4 close): ~$95. Stock had drifted slightly from December levels on broader semis weakness in early 2026.
• Day-of (Mar 5): Print landed after-hours. Initial reaction +5% on FY27 raise + FY28 framework + Q4 beat. Some give-back as gross margin step-down concerns surfaced.
• Day-after (Mar 6): Stock closed ~$98 (+3%). Volume ~35M shares (~2x 30-day average).
• Peers (Mar 6): AVGO +1%, NVDA flat, AMD +0.3%. MRVL outperformed.
• Sell-side flow: Multiple PT raises into $120–$160 range. Bull cases now reinforced around (a) FY28 EPS visibility >$5, (b) Celestial AI optionality, (c) multi-customer custom diversification clear. Bear cases retired aside from gross margin and execution.

Interpretive read: The market processed Q4 + the FY27/FY28 framework as continued validation of the multi-year compounding thesis. Stock at ~$98 reflects strong execution being rewarded. The path to ~$130 over 12-18 months is well-supported by FY28 EPS visibility.

Street Perspective

Debate 1: Can Marvell sustain three consecutive years of 40%+ data center growth?

Bull view: The bottoms-up framework is detailed and grounded in (a) firm POs covering FY27 custom, (b) interconnect attach rates increasing per accelerator, (c) AEC + retimer doubling, (d) switch ramp, (e) new Tier-1 XPU FY28 ramp. The 3-year compounding is achievable if customer execution holds.

Bear view: 3 consecutive years of 40%+ growth at scale is extraordinary and rarely sustained. Single-program delays, competitive responses, gross margin pressure could compress growth in any given year.

Our take: The framework is credible based on visible building blocks. Execution risk is real but manageable. We model FY27 +28%, FY28 +35%, FY29 +25% — slightly below management framework but supportive of the rerate.

Debate 2: How much value should be ascribed to Celestial + XConn?

Bull view: Combined ~$250M FY28 contribution is conservative. Celestial CPO scale-up at $1B Q4 FY29 run rate implies $2-3B annual revenue by FY30. XConn adds $500M+ FY30 PCIe/CXL switch revenue. Combined ~$3-4B FY30 revenue at high gross margins = $10-15B equity value.

Bear view: Both acquisitions are early-stage. Celestial CPO adoption uncertain — only one lead customer named. XConn customer pipeline (20+ pre-acquisition) needs to convert. The combined contribution is meaningful but optionality, not certainty.

Our take: The combined contribution should add ~$10-15 to fair equity value per share by 2027-2028 as visibility crystallizes. Currently embedded in stock at modest levels.

Debate 3: Is the multiple appropriate?

Bull view: At ~$98 (~20x FY27E EPS $4.80; ~17x FY28E EPS $5.50), Marvell trades at meaningful discount to AVGO (~33x). With multi-year visibility crystallizing, the multiple should re-rate toward 25-30x. Path to $130-160 over 12-18 months.

Bear view: Even at 17-20x, the multiple already reflects significant execution. AI semis broadly compressed in early 2026 on competitive concerns; relative valuation may not expand.

Our take: Fair value $95-$130 supported by FY28 EPS visibility. Stock at $98 sits at low end. Upside to $130+ as visibility extends through FY28.

Model Implications & Thesis Scorecard

Model Update

• FY26 actuals: Revenue $8.195B (+42%); EPS $2.84 (+81%); op margin 35.3%
• FY27 estimates: Revenue $11B (+30%); EPS $4.50-4.80; op margin ~37%
• FY28 estimates: Revenue ~$15B (+~40%); EPS $5.50-6.00; op margin ~38%
• FY29 estimates: Revenue ~$19B (+~25%); EPS ~$7.00; Celestial accelerating
• Long-term: $22-25B FY30; EPS $8-10; capital return continuing

Thesis Scorecard

Rating & Action

Maintaining Outperform. Q4 + FY26 close + FY27/FY28 framework expansion is the inflection moment for Marvell as a multi-year compounding AI silicon platform. Each of the December upgrade pillars has materialized + been raised:

1. FY27 outlook raised from $10B (December) to $11B (March)
2. FY28 framework introduced at $15B with EPS >$5 (vs December "+40% data center" framing)
3. Celestial AI + XConn acquisitions closed on schedule
4. Custom doubling FY27 → FY28 confirmed with firm POs
5. Three consecutive years of 40%+ data center growth framework

Fair value range: $95–$130 (unchanged). Stock at ~$98 sits at the lower end of our range — opportunity remains for the multiple to expand toward AVGO-style 25-30x as FY28 EPS visibility crystallizes. Multi-year price target ~$130-160.

Key watch items into Q1 FY27 (early June print):

• Q1 FY27 print — first quarter of FY27 framework execution; data center growth pace.
• Celestial AI customer engagement signals — second hyperscaler beyond lead.
• XConn customer pipeline progression — convert 20+ engagements.
• 2nm custom program disclosure — timing of next-gen programs.
• FY28 Q1-Q2 framing updates.
• AEC + retimer revenue ramp magnitude.
• Capital return cadence — buyback pace post-deal close.
• Any incremental customer disclosure (Microsoft XPU, etc.).