FY25 Record Year: Net Income +260%, Shopee EBITDA +465%, FY26 Guide Pairs ~25% GMV Growth with EBITDA Floor — Maintaining Outperform, Raising Conviction to High
Key Takeaways
- FY25 record year: revenue $22.9B (+36% YoY); net income $1.6B (+260% YoY off $447M base); adj EBITDA $3.4B (+75% YoY); operating cash flow generation supports strong balance sheet expansion. The +260% net income growth represents the conversion of multi-year operational investments into earnings power.
- Shopee FY25: GMV $127B (+27%); adj EBITDA $881M (+465% off $156M FY24 base). 400M active buyers; 20M sellers. The EBITDA inflection from FY24 to FY25 is the most consequential single data point across the entire portfolio — Shopee is now both growing fast AND highly profitable.
- Q4 2025: revenue $6.9B (+38% YoY); adj EBITDA $787M (+33%); net income $410.9M (+73%). Shopee Q4 EBITDA $202M (+33% YoY); Monee Q4 EBITDA $263M (+25%); Garena Q4 bookings $672M (+24%). Despite Q3's investment-phase margin compression, Q4 EBITDA expanded — investment pacing is well-managed.
- FY26 guide: Shopee GMV ~25% YoY growth with adj EBITDA "no lower than 2025 in absolute dollars" ($881M floor). Monee continued credit scaling; Garena momentum into 2026 with Free Fire 10th anniversary planning for 2027. The "growth + EBITDA floor" framework is the disciplined investment approach the Street wants to see.
- Rating: Maintaining Outperform; upgrading conviction from Moderate to High. FY25 results validate every element of the multi-year thesis. Three engines compounding simultaneously + disciplined FY26 guide + Brazil acceleration + Monee off-Shopee expansion + Garena IP playbook + Free Fire 10th anniversary 2027 catalysts. Fair value range raised to $230-285 (~35-43x FY26 EPS power of ~$6.60).
FY2025 Results — Record Year
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $22.9B | $16.8B | +36% |
| Net Income | $1.6B | $447M | +260% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.4B | $1.93B | +75% |
| Shopee GMV | $127B | ~$100B | +27% |
| Shopee Adj EBITDA | $881M | $156M | +465% |
| Shopee Active Buyers | ~400M | ~370M | +8% |
| Monee Revenue | $3.8B | $2.4B | +60% |
| Monee Adj EBITDA | $1.0B | $700M | +43% |
| Monee Loan Book | $9.2B (year-end) | $5.1B | +80% |
| Garena Bookings | $2.9B | $2.1B | +37% |
| Garena Adj EBITDA | $1.7B | $1.23B | +38% |
Q4 2025 Results vs. Consensus
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Street | Beat/Miss | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $6.9B (+38% YoY) | $6.4B | Beat | +$500M / +8% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $787M (+33%) | $710M | Beat | +$77M / +11% |
| Net Income | $410.9M (+73%) | $340M | Beat | +$71M / +21% |
| Shopee GMV | $36.7B (+29%) | $34.5B | Beat | +$2.2B / +6% |
| Shopee Adj EBITDA | $202M (+33%) | $170M | Beat | +$32M / +19% |
| Monee Revenue | $1.1B (+54%) | $1.0B | Beat | +10% |
| Garena Bookings | $672M (+24%) | $650M | Beat | +3% |
FY2026 Guidance — Growth + Discipline
Shopee: Annual GMV growth ~25% YoY. Full-year adj EBITDA "no lower than 2025 in absolute dollars" ($881M floor). This framework signals continued growth investment while protecting the FY25 EBITDA achievement.
"For 2026, we aim to grow Shopee's annual GMV by around 25% year-on-year with its full year adjusted EBITDA no lower than 2025 in absolute dollars. We believe this is the right strategy to optimize Shopee's long-term profitability."
— Forrest Li, Chairman & CEO
Monee: Continued credit business expansion across markets and use cases. No specific guidance — management framed as "significant long-term profit contributor" with multiple growth vectors still in early stages (Brazil, off-Shopee SPaylater, standalone Shopee Pay app, digital banking, insurance, wealth management).
Garena: Free Fire 10th anniversary preparation for 2027. Continued IP collaboration pipeline. Multi-game portfolio expansion via EA partnership (FC Mobile) and other publishing deals.
Segment Performance
Shopee — The EBITDA Inflection Compounds
FY25 Shopee adj EBITDA $881M is the most striking single number in the print — up from $156M FY24 = +465% YoY EBITDA growth on 27% GMV growth. The unit economics scaled rapidly across the year while management deliberately invested in long-term moat (logistics, VIP, content).
Q4 detail: GMV $36.7B (+29%); gross orders 4.0B (+30%); revenue $5.0B; core marketplace revenue $3.6B (+50%); Q4 EBITDA $202M (+33% YoY).
FY25 buyer engagement metrics:
- Monthly active buyers +15% YoY
- Purchase frequency +10% YoY
- VIP subscribers 7M+ at year-end (more than doubled QoQ)
- VIP members spend 30-40% more than non-subscribers
- VIP members contribute 15%+ of GMV in some markets
Logistics scale:
- SPX Express processes 30M+ parcels/day
- Taiwan locker network 2,800+ locations
- Brazil delivery time -1.5 days YoY in Q4
- Brazil Shopee Mall GMV +100%+ YoY in Q4
- Fulfillment service rolled out across markets
Assessment: Shopee is now demonstrably a growth + margin platform. The 27% GMV growth + 465% EBITDA growth combination is structurally durable on (1) ad take rate expansion (still 200-300bp runway), (2) logistics scale economics, (3) VIP membership monetization, (4) Brazil maturing. FY26 ~25% GMV with EBITDA floor protects the achievement while preserving growth optionality.
Monee — $1B+ Annual EBITDA Threshold Crossed
FY25 Monee adj EBITDA crossed $1B for the first time (vs $700M FY24, +43% YoY). Revenue $3.8B (+60%). Loan book $9.2B at year-end (+80% YoY) with NPL stable at 1.1%.
Q4 detail: Revenue $1.1B (+54%); adj EBITDA $263M (+25%); loan book +$1.3B QoQ. 5.8M first-time borrowers in Q4 (vs 5M Q3, 4M Q2). 37M+ active credit users at year-end (+40% YoY). Average loan per user $240 (+27% YoY).
Off-Shopee SPaylater traction: +300% YoY; 15%+ of total SPaylater portfolio (vs <5% beginning of year). Malaysia ~30% off-Shopee. Use case expansion into electronics, 2-wheelers (Indonesia).
Brazil Monee: Loan book growing rapidly with localized combined SPaylater + cash loan product. SCFI license activated.
Assessment: Monee crossing $1B EBITDA threshold validates the credit franchise economics. With 37M+ active users and loan book at $9.2B, Monee is now one of the largest consumer lenders in Southeast Asia. The off-Shopee TAM expansion + Brazil scaling + standalone Shopee Pay app + Indonesia digital banking partnership all support multi-year growth into the $5-8B annual EBITDA range by FY28.
Garena — Blockbuster Year, 10th Anniversary 2027 Set Up
FY25 Garena bookings $2.9B (+37% YoY); adj EBITDA $1.7B (+38%). Free Fire content pack year: Naruto Chapter 1 (Q1), Solora map (Q2), Squid Game + Naruto Chapter 2 (Q3). Free Fire World Series Global Finals in Jakarta (Guinness World Record).
Q4 detail: Bookings $672M (+24% YoY); revenue $701M (+35%); adj EBITDA $364M (+26%). Note Q4 bookings decel from Q3's +51% reflects Naruto base effect — natural cadence given the magnitude of Q3 collaborations.
EA Sports FC Mobile: Launched October; most-downloaded mobile game in Vietnam Q4. FC Pro Festival 2025 in Ho Chi Minh City attracted 18M online viewers with Figo, Kaka appearing.
Free Fire 10th anniversary: 2027 marker. Preparation underway. The 10th anniversary represents the largest single content + esports + community event in franchise history.
Assessment: Garena's 2 consecutive years of +30%+ bookings growth on a multi-year-old franchise is unprecedented in mobile gaming. The IP-collaboration playbook (Naruto, Squid Game, Jujutsu Kaisen upcoming for Q1 2026) + multi-game portfolio expansion + 10th anniversary 2027 catalyst all support FY26 growth +20-30% (decelerating from FY25's +37% on tougher comp but sustaining).
Key Topics & Management Commentary
Overall Management Tone: Confident with disciplined investment-phase framing. Forrest Li explicitly stated 2026 will be "a continuation of this approach" with consistent strategies and excellent execution as the focus. Tony Hou provided detailed financials and clear FY26 framework. The disclosure quality has increased materially through FY25 — earnings calls now provide actionable forward visibility.
1. Shopee FY26 EBITDA Floor at $881M
The most consequential single forward disclosure. FY26 Shopee adj EBITDA "no lower than 2025 in absolute dollars" — implies floor at $881M FY25 level despite continued growth investments.
"For 2026, we aim to grow Shopee's annual GMV by around 25% year-on-year with its full year adjusted EBITDA no lower than 2025 in absolute dollars. We believe this is the right strategy to optimize Shopee's long-term profitability."
— Forrest Li, Chairman & CEO
Assessment: The "no lower than FY25" EBITDA floor is the disciplined framework Street wants. Removes the "investments are open-ended" bear concern from Q3. Management is committing to both growth (~25% GMV) AND profitability protection. Implies FY26 EBITDA margin compresses modestly from 0.7% to 0.6% on GMV growth, but absolute dollars protected.
2. Shopee VIP 7M+ Subscribers — 15% of GMV in Some Markets
VIP membership scaled from 3.5M Q3 to 7M+ at year-end (more than doubled QoQ). Spend uplift 30-40% in Indonesia. In some markets, VIP members already contribute 15%+ of total GMV.
"By the end of the year, total subscribers surpassed 7 million at the end of the year, more than double the number from a quarter ago. Across every market where it has launched, the program has consistently produced double-digit spending uplift by members after they join."
— Forrest Li, Chairman & CEO
Assessment: 7M+ VIP subscribers with 15% GMV contribution in some markets validates the program as a meaningful structural mechanic. Brazil rollout in coming months unlocks the largest VIP TAM (affluent buyer cohorts).
3. Monee All-Can-Apply + Off-Shopee Expansion
Monee shifted from whitelist to all-can-apply across markets. Off-Shopee SPaylater +300% YoY; 15% of total portfolio. Malaysia ~30% off-Shopee.
Assessment: The all-can-apply + off-Shopee combination is the multi-year TAM expansion mechanism. Monee evolves from on-Shopee credit franchise to broad consumer credit platform. The Brazil SCFI license + standalone Shopee Pay app + national QR network integration all extend the reach.
4. Garena Free Fire 8 Years In, Still Growing DAUs
Free Fire's 2 consecutive years of +30%+ bookings growth on an 8-year-old franchise is the most under-appreciated structural achievement. Average daily active users grew YoY in 2025 (still expanding despite the massive scale). 2025 bookings nearly 2x 2023 level.
"Free Fire has now achieved two consecutive years of bookings growth exceeding 30%, with 2025 bookings nearly double the level reported in 2023. Even at this massive scale, average daily active users in 2025 continued to grow year-on-year."
— Forrest Li, Chairman & CEO
Assessment: Free Fire's evolution into an "evergreen game" through IP collaborations + community + esports infrastructure validates the long-term franchise model. The 10th anniversary 2027 is the key forward catalyst.
5. Brazil — Fastest-Growing Market 2025
Brazil was Sea's fastest-growing market in 2025 across both Shopee and Monee. Shopee Mall in Brazil GMV +100%+ YoY in Q4. Brazil Monee loan book growing rapidly with combined SPaylater + cash loan product.
Assessment: Brazil is the highest-leverage long-term opportunity. The 5-year ramp in Shopee has positioned the company as market leader by order volume while operating profitably. The category mix shift to higher-value (Shopee Mall +100%+) compounds margin while VIP rollout + Monee scaling extend the lifetime value runway.
6. AI Integration Across the Stack
AI usage in ad targeting, search/recommendations, content generation, customer service chatbots (~80% of customer queries), risk underwriting (Monee), and game development (Garena). AI tools improved Shopee purchase conversion +10% YoY.
Assessment: Sea's AI integration is operationally-deep rather than aspirational. The AI-driven 80% CS chatbot adoption + AI underwriting at Monee + AI ad targeting are tangible productivity gains, not narrative.
Market Reaction
- Pre-print: Stock ~$185. YTD CY26 +10%; trailing 12M ~+90%.
- March 3 session: +5% open; closed ~$198 — +7%. Volume ~7M (~1.8x avg).
- Sector: MELI +3%; GRAB +2%; NTES flat.
Thesis Scorecard
| Thesis Point | Status |
|---|---|
| Bull #1: Shopee growth + profitability | Fully Confirmed (FY25 EBITDA +465%) |
| Bull #2: Monee credit scaling at stable NPL | Fully Confirmed ($1B+ EBITDA threshold) |
| Bull #3: Garena IP repeatability | Fully Confirmed (2 consecutive +30%+ years) |
| Bull #4: Brazil long-term growth | Fully Confirmed (fastest-growing 2025) |
| Bull #5: Ad take rate expansion | Confirmed (+80bp FY25) |
| Bull #6: Off-Shopee Monee TAM | Confirmed (+300% YoY) |
| Bull #7: FY26 EBITDA floor framework | NEW — Established |
| Bear #1: Investment phase margin compression | Mixed (Q3 dip, Q4 expansion) |
| Bear #2: Free Fire moderation | Reversed |
Overall: Seven bull points fully confirmed; bear thesis substantially weakened. The FY26 EBITDA floor disclosure is the new bull point that resolves Q3's investment-phase concern.
Action: Maintaining Outperform; upgrading conviction from Moderate to High. Fair value $230-285. Post-print $198; meaningful upside remains.