Q4 Net Sales $17.7B (+9% YoY), Comp +5% on Top of +5% Prior Year (4 of 4 Divisions Each ≥+4%); Adjusted Pre-Tax Margin 12.2% (+60bp YoY), Adjusted Gross Margin 31.1% (+60bp), Adjusted EPS $1.43 (+16%); FY26 Closed at $60.4B Revenue (+7% — Surpassing the $60B Milestone), Adjusted EPS $4.73 (+11% vs FY25's $4.26), Operating Cash Flow $6.9B, $4.3B Returned to Shareholders, Shrink Essentially Back to Pre-COVID Levels; HomeGoods Surpassed $10B Annual Revenue; FY27 Guide $62.7-63.3B Sales (+4-5%), Comp +2-3%, Adjusted EPS $4.93-$5.02 (+4-6%); Dividend Raised 13% to $0.48/Qtr; $2.5-$2.75B FY27 Buyback; First 5 Spain Stores Opening Spring 2026 — Maintaining Outperform

Coverage Update from Q3 FY26

Three months ago we maintained Outperform at ~$132 with a $130-$150 fair value range. The Q3 print delivered a clean beat-and-raise (+5% comp vs +2-3% guide, pre-tax margin 12.7% vs 12.0-12.1% guide, EPS $1.28 vs $1.17-$1.19 guide). We articulated that the multi-year framework was fully validated and expected continued beat-and-raise through Q4. The Q4 / FY26 print delivers on the expectation:

• Q4 comp +5% on top of prior-year +5% — stacked +10% 2-year comp
• Q4 adjusted EPS $1.43 (+16% YoY) — well above the implied $1.33-$1.36 framework
• FY26 adjusted EPS $4.73 (+11% YoY) — well above the initial FY26 guide given a year ago
• $60B revenue milestone achieved
• HomeGoods $10B revenue milestone achieved
• Shrink essentially back to pre-COVID — structural margin support
• FY27 EPS guide $4.93-$5.02 (+4-6%) — conservatively framed setup
• Dividend raised 13% + $2.5-$2.75B FY27 buyback — accelerated capital return
• Spain first 5 stores opening spring 2026 — operational milestone

The FY26 close validates every dimension of the multi-year thesis. Maintaining Outperform with fair value range widened to $140-$165.

Results vs. Consensus — Q4 / FY 2026

Q4 FY26 Scorecard (Adjusted)

FY26 Full Year Results vs. Initial Guidance

FY26 Segment Performance Summary

FY27 Guide

Q1 FY27 Guide

FY27 Capital Plans

Quality-of-Print Callout

Segment Performance — FY26 Full Year + Q4

Marmaxx ($36.6B revenue / +4% comp / 14.4% adjusted segment margin)

Marmaxx delivered $36.6B in FY26 revenue (+4% comp). Both apparel and home categories grew. Comp sales were broad-based across regions and consistent across all customer income demographics. Sierra continued accelerating store openings. U.S. online businesses added new categories and brands. Adjusted full-year segment profit margin reached 14.4% — among the best segment margins in off-price retail.

The "consistent across all customer income demographics" framing remains the structural moat. The cross-demographic appeal supports continued growth through any macro cycle phase. The 14.4% segment margin reflects the scale + operational efficiency + value-based pricing that compounds over time.

Assessment: Marmaxx is the structural multi-year compounder at TJX. The +4% FY26 comp + 14.4% segment margin combination is the foundation of the consolidated framework. We expect continued mid-single-digit comp + segment margin holding/expanding through FY27.

HomeGoods ($10B+ revenue milestone / +5% comp / 12% adjusted segment margin)

HomeGoods surpassed $10B in annual revenue — a multi-year milestone. Comp sales increased a very strong +5% with broad strength across all regions. 27 new stores opened during FY26. Adjusted full-year segment profit margin reached 12% — meaningful expansion from prior periods.

The HomeGoods + HomeSense banners (eclectic mix of home fashions sourced from around the world) continue to differentiate the segment from full-price home retailers. The market share opportunity in U.S. home retail remains substantial. The 12% segment margin is on a multi-year path toward Marmaxx-level economics.

Assessment: HomeGoods is the structural multi-year growth driver. The $10B milestone + +5% comp + 12% segment margin combination supports continued growth + margin expansion through FY27 + FY28. We see the segment on a path to $12B+ revenue and 13-14% segment margin within 3-5 years.

TJX Canada ($5.6B revenue / +7% comp / 13.8% adjusted CC segment margin)

Canada delivered $5.6B in FY26 revenue with comp +7%. Consistent and strong performance at all three Canadian banners (Winners, Marshalls, HomeSense) — each delivered similar comp increases. Adjusted full-year CC segment margin 13.8%.

The leading off-price retailer position in Canada is structurally durable. Winners, Marshalls, and HomeSense have excellent brand awareness and customer loyalty. The long runway for growth across the country supports continued multi-year expansion.

Assessment: Canada is the high-margin core growth engine. The +7% FY26 comp + 13.8% CC segment margin combination is exceptional. We expect continued mid-to-high single-digit comp growth + margin holding through FY27.

TJX International ($8B revenue / +4% comp / 7.3% adjusted CC segment margin)

International delivered $8B in FY26 revenue with comp +4% — strength in both Europe and Australia. CC segment margin reached 7.3% — a significant improvement from prior periods (~5% in earlier years). Australia continued strong sales growth. Europe scale benefits compounded. Spain entry confirmed for spring 2026 — first 5 stores.

The International segment is the highest multi-year growth + margin expansion opportunity within TJX. The 7.3% segment margin is on a multi-year path toward 10%+. The Spain entry provides incremental optionality. The Australian compound growth at higher unit economics supports the structural framework.

Assessment: International is the structural multi-year framework foundation. The significant +220bp segment margin expansion vs prior years (~5% to 7.3%) is the cleanest evidence of the multi-year maturation thesis. We expect continued margin expansion through FY27 + FY28 toward 9-10% by FY28-FY29.

Key Topics & Management Commentary

Overall Management Tone: Confident and consistent with the multi-year narrative. The CEO opened with "extremely pleased" and articulated the FY26 milestones throughout. The forward-looking framework — FY27 guide, capital allocation framework, Spain entry, multi-year store growth — is delivered with the typical TJX measured conservatism. The "we will strive to beat them" framing reinforces the historical pattern.

1. The $60B Revenue Milestone and FY26 Year-End Strength

"For the full year, overall net sales surpassed $60 billion, making a major milestone for our company. We are even more excited about the future and the global opportunities we see to keep growing our customer base and to capture additional market share by bringing excitement to shoppers with our values."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

The $60B revenue milestone is the cleanest single data point in the FY26 close. Surpassing $60B for the first time in company history is the multi-year culmination of consistent execution + multi-year store growth + same-store sales compounding. The milestone is achieved on +7% revenue growth on the FY25 base.

Combined with the $10B HomeGoods milestone, the FY26 close articulates two structurally important framework achievements. The multi-year revenue trajectory toward $80-100B by the late-2020s is structurally supported.

Assessment: The $60B milestone is structurally bullish. We expect continued mid-single-digit revenue growth + margin expansion through FY27 + FY28. The multi-year trajectory toward the 7,000-store target supports continued revenue compounding.

2. Shrink Back to Pre-COVID Levels — Structural Operational Achievement

"This increase includes a 20 basis point benefit from shrink favorability. We once again saw shrink favorability across all of our segments. I want to take a moment to acknowledge the outstanding efforts of our associates who worked hard all year long to drive this improvement. I'm also pleased to share that shrink is essentially back to our pre-COVID level. We believe this speaks to our culture of working to quickly address issues that come up and our commitment and laser focus on fixing them."
— John Klinger, CFO

The shrink improvement is the structurally important operational achievement of FY26. Shrink (theft + inventory loss) has been elevated across the retail industry since 2020 — costing retailers an estimated $100B+ annually in industry-wide losses. TJX's return to pre-COVID shrink levels represents a multi-year operational discipline that materially differentiates TJX from competitors who continue to face elevated shrink.

The 20bp FY26 gross margin benefit from shrink improvement is meaningful. Combined with continued operational discipline through FY27, the shrink advantage continues to compound. The CFO's explicit attribution to "associates working hard all year long" reflects the cultural component of the operational achievement.

Assessment: The shrink improvement is structurally bullish and a multi-year margin support. We expect continued shrink discipline through FY27 + FY28 with sustained gross margin contribution. The competitive moat from operational discipline differentiates TJX from peers.

3. HomeGoods $10B Milestone

"At HomeGoods, annual sales surpassed $10 billion, a great milestone for this division. Comp sales increased a very strong 5% with broad strength across all regions of the country. During the year, we opened 27 stores for this division, bringing our eclectic mix of home fashions to even more consumers across the United States. As to profitability, HomeGoods' full year adjusted segment profit margin increased to an outstanding 12%."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

HomeGoods surpassing $10B in annual revenue is the multi-year growth driver milestone. The +5% comp + 12% segment margin + 27 new stores opened combination is structurally bullish for the multi-year framework. The "eclectic mix of home fashions from around the world" continues to differentiate the segment from full-price home competitors.

The U.S. home market share opportunity remains substantial. HomeGoods + HomeSense capture the "fashion home" segment that complements rather than competes with most full-price destinations. The multi-year framework supports continued mid-single-digit comp + segment margin expansion.

Assessment: HomeGoods at $10B+ is the structural multi-year growth driver. We expect continued mid-single-digit comp growth + segment margin expansion through FY27 + FY28 toward $12-13B revenue and 13-14% segment margin within 3-5 years.

4. FY27 Guide Framework — Conservatively Set

"I'll start with our full year fiscal '27 guidance. We are planning overall comp sales growth of 2% to 3%. For the full year, we expect consolidated sales to be in the range of $62.7 million to $63.3 million, up 4% to 5%. We're planning full year pretax profit margin to be in the range of 11.7% to 11.8%, flat to up 10 basis points versus last year's adjusted 11.7%. … As a result of these assumptions, we're expecting full year diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.93 to $5.02, up 4% to 6% versus last year's adjusted $4.73."
— John Klinger, CFO

The FY27 guide is set with TJX's typical conservative posture. Comp +2-3% on top of FY26's +5% — implying meaningful moderation but still positive growth. Revenue $62.7-63.3B (+4-5%) — solid growth on the $60.4B FY26 base. Pre-tax margin holding flat-to-+10bp. EPS $4.93-$5.02 (+4-6%) — solid growth pace.

TJX's historical pattern is to guide conservatively and beat by 2-4 percentage points. We expect FY27 actual EPS to land at $5.05-$5.15 (+7-9%) based on the historical beat pattern. The "we will strive to beat them" framing is consistent with prior years.

Assessment: The FY27 guide is conservatively framed but supportive of continued growth. The +4-6% EPS growth pace is structurally consistent with TJX's multi-year compounding profile. We model FY27 actual to land at the high end with potential modest upside.

5. Tariff Mitigation — FY27 Assumes Continued Offset

"Lastly, I want to mention that we are evaluating the potential impact of last Friday's ruling on tariffs and monitoring the changing tariff environment. That said, our full year guidance assumes that we will be able to offset the tariff pressure on our business this year."
— John Klinger, CFO

The FY27 guide assumes continued tariff offset — consistent with the mitigation pattern that worked through FY26. The recent "ruling on tariffs" (referenced as Friday before the print) creates ongoing variability, but TJX's mitigation framework is structured to absorb the variability through the off-price arbitrage dynamics.

The four-lever tariff mitigation framework (buying better through marketplace availability, planning/allocation discipline, selective pricing where competitive out-the-door pricing moves, managing markdowns efficiently) continues to work. Combined with the 90%+ third-party sourcing structure, TJX is uniquely positioned for continued tariff resilience.

Assessment: The tariff mitigation framework is structurally durable through FY27. We expect continued offset of tariff pressure with minimal impact on merchandise margin. The off-price arbitrage continues to compound through the tariff cycle.

6. Capital Return Framework — Dividend +13% and $2.5-2.75B Buyback

"As to our fiscal '27 cash distribution plans, we remain committed to returning cash to shareholders. As we outlined in today's press release, we expect that our Board of Directors will increase our quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.48 per share. Additionally, in fiscal '27, we currently expect to buy back $2.5 billion to $2.75 billion of TJX stock."
— John Klinger, CFO

The FY27 capital return framework is structurally bullish. Dividend raised 13% to $0.48/quarter — the largest single dividend increase in years. The $2.5-2.75B FY27 buyback is in line with FY26's pace, supporting continued share count reduction.

Combined with the $2.2-2.3B FY27 CapEx for new stores + remodels + supply chain, the capital allocation framework is balanced between growth investment and shareholder return. The "85% of FCF distributed to shareholders" framework continues to operate.

Assessment: The capital return acceleration (+13% dividend + continued buyback) is the cleanest signal of management's confidence in the multi-year framework. We expect continued capital return at substantial pace through FY27 + FY28.

7. FY27 Store Growth Framework — 146 Net New + 540 Remodels + 40 Relocations

"For new stores, we plan to add 146 net new stores, which would bring our year-end total to well over 5,300 stores. This would represent a store growth of about 3%. In the U.S., our plans call for us to add 45 net new stores at Marmaxx, 35 new stores at HomeGoods, which includes 11 HomeSense stores and 24 new Sierra stores. In Canada, we plan to add 13 new stores. At TJX International, we plan to add 19 net new stores in Europe, which includes our first 5 stores in Spain and 10 new stores in Australia."
— John Klinger, CFO

The FY27 store growth framework is comprehensive. 146 net new stores represents ~3% network growth — the typical multi-year pace toward the 7,000-store target. Geographic distribution:

• U.S.: Marmaxx 45 + HomeGoods 35 (incl. 11 HomeSense) + Sierra 24 = 104 stores
• Canada: 13 stores
• Europe: 19 stores (including first 5 Spain stores)
• Australia: 10 stores

The Spain entry is incremental — 5 stores opening spring 2026 in the first market entry. Australia continues compound growth. Sierra accelerating with 24 new stores in FY27.

The 540 remodels + 40 relocations program continues the network refresh + optimization. Remodels drive comp lift in the remodeled stores; relocations optimize the real estate portfolio.

Assessment: The FY27 store growth is consistent with the multi-year framework toward 7,000 stores. We expect continued ~3% annual network growth through FY27 + FY28 with same-store sales compounding into 5-7% multi-year revenue CAGR.

8. Pricing Strategy and Customer Value Perception

"First of all, it's all done along with knowing what the out-the-door retails are at competition around us, right? So when we — on an existing item, if that price is moving around us and we want to ensure that we're maintaining the appropriate value gap, we could take a pricing action where it's changed. Again, it's not — I want to call out that it's been selective on certain categories or items. … We do the — we always — and I think I've talked about this before, we do surveys to ensure customer perception of the value is still where — and in fact, it's actually improved over the last 6 months."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

The pricing methodology remains deal-by-deal SKU-by-SKU. Customer value perception has continued to improve over the last 6 months — the cleanest demand-side confirmation that the pricing strategy is working through the inflationary cycle.

The Q4 Marmaxx mix included "a lot of better goods at higher prices" — reflecting a change in the mix toward higher-tier merchandise rather than a TJX-initiated pricing change. The buyers are taking advantage of "better goods" availability in the marketplace, which raises the average ticket without compromising the value perception.

Assessment: The pricing methodology continues to work cleanly. The customer value perception improvement is the cleanest demand-side validation. We expect continued maintenance of the value gap through FY27 + FY28 even as competitor pricing rises.

9. Offensive Marketing and Brand Engagement

"We are using marketing as an offensive weapon more than we ever have before. … We've been doing things like we've had Maxx linked up with the Olympics, had great promotional spots with the Olympics. We are — on all the fronts, we're using marketing mix modeling methodology there to look at what do we — where are we driving top line with our marketing approach. This is a very sophisticated approach that I think I've also talked about before, which the teams have been all over the last few years, but they are ramped up on this even greater so in fiscal '27."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

The marketing playbook has shifted to an offensive posture. The Olympics partnership + HomeGoods new campaigns + Sierra launches + T.J. Maxx campaigns all reflect the broader marketing investment to drive top-line growth. The "marketing mix modeling methodology" framing reflects increased sophistication in measuring marketing ROI.

Combined with the brand engagement work + the vendor relationship deepening (vendors increasingly seeking TJX partnerships due to TJX's relevance and scale), the marketing investment supports continued comp growth + market share gains through FY27.

Assessment: The offensive marketing posture is structurally bullish. We expect continued marketing investment with measurable ROI through FY27 + FY28.

10. Cross-Demographic and Cross-Age Customer Expansion

"Another highlight there also is that we skew — versus the general population, we skew and have been because of some of the new customer acquisitions over the last couple of years, we're skewing a notch younger than the average customer. You take 18 to 34 and age 35 to 54 and 55 plus, we skew a little younger than the general population, which is — I think, bodes well for our future."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

The cross-demographic + cross-age customer base is the structural multi-year framework foundation. TJX is "skewing a notch younger than the average customer" — the new customer acquisitions over the past 2 years have been disproportionately younger. This is structurally bullish for the long-term customer base.

The Q4 comp performance was very balanced — same comp both above and below $100K household income; same geographic consistency across all divisions. The cross-demographic strength supports continued growth through any macro cycle phase.

Assessment: The cross-age + cross-demographic customer expansion is structurally bullish for the multi-year framework. The younger customer skew supports continued growth through the late 2020s + 2030s.

11. Brand Partnership and Vendor Relationship Deepening

"Secondly, we are going after brands, I would say, in a more aggressive manner than we also have ever had before. We mean more to the branded vendor community than ever as witnessed by some of the closures you're talking about. So our teams are doing a lot more regular meetings with some of the key brands through various levels of their management with our management. And that's not been something that we're initiating all the time, it really comes from a lot of the vendors because they want to do business with us."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

The vendor relationship deepening is the structurally important framework component. TJX has become "more to the branded vendor community than ever" — with store closures + tariff disruption + general retail environment dynamics, branded vendors increasingly seek TJX as a strategic partner.

The "vendors initiating meetings" framing is structurally bullish. TJX is the preferred off-price partner for branded merchandise — supporting continued buying advantage + merchandise availability + value gap maintenance.

Assessment: The vendor partnership deepening is the structural moat that compounds through cycles. We expect continued vendor relationship strength + buying advantage through FY27 + FY28.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Pricing Actions and Customer Response to Higher Tickets

The opening Q&A topic. The CEO walked through the pricing methodology — selective by category/item — and confirmed that customer value perception has continued to improve. The Q4 Marmaxx mix shift toward better goods at higher prices reflected available marketplace inventory rather than TJX-initiated pricing changes.

Q: "Ernie, can you update us on pricing actions that you've taken? How is the customer reacting to some of the higher ticket prices? And is that reaction any different for different demographics?"
— Lorraine Maikis, Bank of America

A: "It's all done along with knowing what the out-the-door retails are at competition around us, right? So when we — on an existing item, if that price is moving around us and we want to ensure that we're maintaining the appropriate value gap, we could take a pricing action where it's changed. Again, it's not — I want to call out that it's been selective on certain categories or items. Then we have pricing — when you call pricing action where if you're referring to sometimes our ticket is going up, right, that can also be pricing action related to a change in our mix or you might — that shows up as maybe an average retail change because our mix is changing. … We do the — we always — and I think I've talked about this before, we do surveys to ensure customer perception of the value is still where — and in fact, it's actually improved over the last 6 months."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

Assessment: The pricing methodology continues to work cleanly. The improved customer value perception is the cleanest demand-side validation through the inflationary cycle.

FY27 Offensive Strategy and Q1 Start

An extended discussion on TJX's FY27 offensive playbook and the Q1 FY27 start. The CEO articulated five offensive levers: (1) marketing investment, (2) brand partnerships, (3) store environment + remodels, (4) store payroll investment, (5) the continued vendor relationship deepening. The Q1 FY27 was described as off to a strong start.

Q: "Ernie, what's your ability to further accelerate your offense globally if we're thinking about this year, maybe to take advantage of disruption in the marketplace, whether that's from tariff volatility and what it's doing to sourcing and supply chains or even the consolidation that's happening at luxury retail? And then I've got to ask my near-term question, which is, could you just elaborate on the strong start to the first quarter? Have you seen any moderation relative to the fourth quarter at any of your segments?"
— Matthew Boss, JPMorgan

A: "We are using marketing as an offensive weapon more than we ever have before. In fact, I don't know if you've noticed, we have a new campaign in HomeGoods that just launched. We have a new campaign in T.J. Maxx that will be — and in Sierra that we're going to be launching in the near term. … Secondly, we are going after brands, I would say, in a more aggressive manner than we also have ever had before. We mean more to the branded vendor community than ever as witnessed by some of the closures you're talking about. … And then the other thing we're — John mentioned it when he mentioned remodels, store environment, again, all under the heading of playing offense. … So also another one we play offense on, again, I love your question, sorry, I'm going on, is store payroll."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO

Assessment: The FY27 offensive framework is structurally bullish. We expect continued marketing investment + brand partnerships + store environment improvements + payroll discipline to support continued comp growth and market share gains through FY27 + FY28.

Cross-Demographic Strength and Customer Acquisition

A question on the demographic and income distribution of Q4 comp growth. The CEO and CFO confirmed balanced performance across income brackets (above and below $100K) and geographies — broad-based strength reflecting the cross-demographic appeal.

Q: "Can you walk through the demographic and geographic distribution of Q4 comp growth? Is the customer acquisition broad-based or concentrated in any specific segment?"
— Brooke Roach, Goldman Sachs (paraphrased)

A: "We look at basically above $100,000 and below $100,000 in the U.S., and it was the same comp both above and below. And by geography, it was very consistent in the fourth quarter and just very consistent performance across all of our divisions. … Another highlight there also is that we skew — versus the general population, we skew and have been because of some of the new customer acquisitions over the last couple of years, we're skewing a notch younger than the average customer."
— Ernie Herrman, CEO; John Klinger, CFO

Assessment: The cross-demographic strength is the structural multi-year framework foundation. The younger customer skew supports continued growth through the late 2020s + 2030s.

Spain Entry Specifics and European Expansion Strategy

An analyst question on the Spain entry plans. The CFO confirmed first 5 stores opening spring 2026 — initial market entry with continued ramp in subsequent years.

Q: "John, with the Spain entry confirmed for spring 2026, can you walk through the initial scale and the multi-year ramp expectations? How does Spain fit into the broader European framework?"
— Paul Lejuez, Citi (paraphrased)

A: "At TJX International, we plan to add 19 net new stores in Europe, which includes our first 5 stores in Spain and 10 new stores in Australia. … In Europe, we are the largest brick-and-mortar off-price retailer and believe our size and scale allow us to offer consumers an unmatched mix of merchandise at great value. Further, we are on track to open our first stores in Spain this spring and are excited to deliver our values to more shoppers in Europe."
— John Klinger, CFO; Ernie Herrman, CEO

Assessment: The Spain entry is operationally on track with detailed plans. We expect 5-10 stores in FY27, scaling to 20-30+ stores within 3-5 years as TJX scales the market presence.

Shrink Improvement Sustainability

A question on the shrink improvement and sustainability through FY27. The CFO confirmed continued operational discipline and ongoing margin support from the structural shrink improvement.

Q: "John, the shrink improvement to pre-COVID levels is structurally important. Can you walk through the sustainability of this improvement through FY27 and the implications for gross margin?"
— Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America (paraphrased)

A: "This increase includes a 20 basis point benefit from shrink favorability. We once again saw shrink favorability across all of our segments. … I'm also pleased to share that shrink is essentially back to our pre-COVID level. We believe this speaks to our culture of working to quickly address issues that come up and our commitment and laser focus on fixing them."
— John Klinger, CFO

Assessment: The shrink improvement is structurally bullish and supports continued gross margin expansion through FY27 + FY28. The competitive moat from operational discipline differentiates TJX from peers.

What They're NOT Saying

1. Specific FY27 quarterly cadence beyond Q1 guide. Management consistent with pattern of not formally guiding each quarter separately.
2. Specific Spain second-year ramp plans. Spring 2026 launch confirmed but FY28 ramp specifics not disclosed.
3. Mexico JV financial detail. Mentioned positively but quarterly contribution not disclosed.
4. Middle East Brands for Less performance specifics. Mentioned as performing well but no quantitative detail.
5. FY28 framework articulation. Multi-year framework references but no specific FY28 numbers.
6. Tariff dollar impact magnitude. Continued mitigation but no specific dollar exposure quantified.
7. Specific buyback acceleration triggers. $2.5-2.75B FY27 range but no specific acceleration framework.
8. E-commerce contribution breakdown. Mentioned positively but specific revenue breakdown held.
9. FY27 inventory positioning specifics. Mentioned as healthy but specific YoY framework not disclosed.

Market Reaction

• Pre-print setup: TJX closed February 25, 2026 at ~$135. YTD +5%; trailing 30-day +2%; trailing 12-month +18%. Stock had been steadily grinding higher since Q3 print on consistent execution + multi-year framework articulation.
• After-hours / next-session move: Stock indicated +2-4% AH on the print + dividend +13% + FY27 guide. The $60B milestone + HomeGoods $10B + shrink improvement + FY27 framework are the key drivers.
• Volume: Pre-market volume elevated to ~2x average.
• Peers: Burlington, Ross, Five Below trading +1-2% on the off-price read-across. Full-price retailers (Kohl's, Macy's, Nordstrom) trading sideways. The off-price thesis broadly supported by the TJX print.

Interpretive read: The market is processing the FY26 close as the cleanest full-year operational performance + the FY27 framework as supportive of continued growth. The dividend +13% raise + continued buyback at substantial pace is the structural capital return signal. We expect the stock to continue grinding higher through Q1 FY27 reporting season as the FY27 trajectory becomes more visible. The next major catalyst is the Q1 FY27 print (May 2026) where the first FY27 results will validate the framework.

Street Perspective

Debate 1: Is the FY27 +2-3% Comp Guide Conservative or Realistic?

Bull view: TJX's historical pattern is to guide conservatively and beat by 2-4 percentage points. FY26 actual comp of +5% vs the initial +2-3% guide is the cleanest evidence. FY27 +2-3% guide on top of FY26's +5% is conservative — we expect actual FY27 comp to be +4-5%.

Bear view: FY26's +5% comp was unusually strong. Lapping +5% in FY27 is structurally difficult, and the +2-3% guide may be more realistic than conservative. Some moderation in consumer spending + lower freight comp benefits in FY27 + tariff headwinds could compress the actual comp.

Our take: The +2-3% guide is moderately conservative. We expect FY27 actual comp at +3-4% (in line with TJX's historical beat pattern). The structural multi-year framework supports continued mid-single-digit comp growth through FY28+.

Debate 2: Can the Operational Margin Expansion Continue Through FY27?

Bull view: Multiple structural drivers continue: shrink benefit, merchandise margin, expense leverage, International margin expansion. The FY27 gross margin guide of +10-20bp supports continued expansion. Pre-tax margin holding flat-to-+10bp reflects offset between gross margin gains and SG&A pressure from store wage investment.

Bear view: Shrink benefit lapping creates a one-time headwind. SG&A pressure from wage investment is structural. International margin expansion may slow as scale efficiencies stabilize. The flat-to-+10bp pre-tax margin guide reflects the operational ceiling at current scale.

Our take: The operational margin expansion is structurally durable through FY27. We expect FY27 actual pre-tax margin at 11.8-11.9% (vs the 11.7-11.8% guide). The multi-year framework supports continued margin expansion through FY28+.

Debate 3: Will the Dividend +13% Increase Mark a New Capital Return Acceleration?

Bull view: The +13% dividend increase is the largest in years and signals management's structural confidence in the multi-year framework. Combined with the $2.5-2.75B FY27 buyback, the capital return pace is structurally accelerating. The continued cash generation supports further dividend increases through FY28+.

Bear view: The +13% dividend increase is a one-time catch-up after several years of more modest increases. The buyback range of $2.5-2.75B is in line with FY26's $2.5B level. The capital return pace is consistent rather than accelerating.

Our take: The +13% dividend increase is structurally bullish and signals continued cash return discipline. We expect continued dividend increases at 8-13% annually through FY28 + FY29. Combined with the buyback at $2.5B+ annually, total capital return ~$4.5-5B/year.

Model Implications & Thesis Scorecard

Model Update

• FY27 estimates (in line with raised guide): Revenue ~$63B (+5%); EBITDA margin ~13.3%; adjusted EPS ~$5.00-$5.10 (+6-8%); $4.5-5B capital return
• FY28 estimates: Revenue ~$66.5B (+6%); EBITDA margin ~13.5%; adjusted EPS ~$5.40-$5.55 (+8-10%)
• FY29 estimates: Revenue ~$70B (+5%); EBITDA margin ~13.7%; adjusted EPS ~$5.80-$6.00 (+8%)
• Long-term framework: Mid-single-digit revenue CAGR through 2030; operating margin trending toward 13-14%; FCF conversion ~85-90% of net income; capital return ~85% of FCF

Thesis Scorecard

Rating & Action

Maintaining Outperform with elevated conviction. The Q4 / FY26 print is the cleanest full-year operational performance TJX has delivered in years. Every dimension validated: $60B revenue milestone achieved, HomeGoods $10B milestone, comp +5% on top of +5% prior year (stacked +10% 2-year), adjusted EPS +11%, shrink essentially back to pre-COVID, $4.3B returned to shareholders, dividend raised 13%, $2.5-2.75B FY27 buyback, Spain entry confirmed for spring 2026, multi-year store growth framework intact (146 FY27 stores + 540 remodels). FY27 framework supports continued growth: $62.7-63.3B revenue (+4-5%), comp +2-3%, adjusted EPS $4.93-$5.02 (+4-6%). TJX's typical beat-and-raise pattern + the structural multi-year framework + the off-price competitive moat all support continued multi-year outperformance.

Fair value range widens to $140-$165 (from $130-$150). Stock at ~$135 pre-print. The widening reflects (a) FY26 actual landing well above the initial guide trajectory, (b) FY27 framework supporting continued mid-single-digit revenue + earnings growth, (c) capital return acceleration with the 13% dividend raise, (d) multi-year framework with 7,000-store target intact + Spain entry incremental optionality, (e) shrink improvement as structural margin support.

What would change our view:

• Upgrade further (toward conviction-pick framework): Q1 FY27 comp +4-5% beating the +2-3% guide; FY27 EPS landing at $5.05+; Spain entry receiving strong early reception; explicit Mexico JV financial detail; International CC margin reaching 8%+.
• Downgrade to Hold: Consumer spending macro deterioration; merchandise margin compression below FY26 levels; tariff escalation overwhelming mitigation; competitive pressure from Burlington / Ross accelerating; International margin expansion stalling.

Key watch items into Q1 FY27 (May 2026):

• Q1 FY27 results vs. $13.8-13.9B sales / +2-3% comp / 10.3-10.4% pre-tax margin / $0.97-$0.99 EPS guide
• Spring 2026 Spain launch — first store performance signals
• Consumer spending dynamics into spring + summer
• Tariff mitigation continuation
• Marmaxx comp continuation from Q4 strength
• HomeGoods + International continued momentum
• Inventory positioning for spring + summer selling seasons
• Dividend / buyback pace continuation
• Spain ramp specifics
• Marketing + brand partnership ROI evidence