McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
Recap: Q2 2026
Downgrading to Hold: The U.S. Miss Was Self-Inflicted, Not the Minecraft Lap. Comp +0.8% on Negative Guest Counts, a Third of the System Off the Value Architecture, July Already Negative, and a New U.S. President Installed the Morning of the Print
Recap: Q1 2026
Maintaining Outperform — Clean Beat on US Comp +3.9% Plus EPS, McCafe US National Rollout Launched May 6 (One Day Before This Print), McValue 2.0 Under-$3 Menu Unanimously Approved by Franchisees, and a ~13% Stock De-Rating Since Q4 Print Creates an Attractive Entry Into the Multi-Catalyst Back Half of 2026
Recap: Q4 2025
Upgrading to Outperform from Hold — US Comp of +6.8% Blew Through the +4% Upgrade Threshold, EVMs + MONOPOLY + Grinch + E. coli Lap All Fired, Restaurant Margin Crossed $15B for the Year, and 2026 Has Three Distinct Catalyst Windows (McCafe Beverage Launch, June Convention, Fall Investor Update)
Recap: Q3 2025
Maintaining Hold — EVM Relaunch Fixes the Right Structural Problem and Restaurant Margin Crosses $4B for the First Time Ever, But a $0.13 EPS Miss, a 22.8% Tax-Rate Surprise, and US Comp Deceleration to +2.4% Defer the Outperform Catalyst to Q4
Recap: Q2 2025
Initiating at Hold — The U.S. Inflects Positive at +2.5%, Global Comp Hits a Two-Year High, But the Low-Income Drag and a Trimmed Company-Operated Margin Keep the Risk/Reward Balanced