The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Recap: Q1 2026
Maintaining Progressive at Outperform: An 86.4 Combined Ratio and a Run at #1 US Auto for ~10x Earnings — Our Call Has Lagged, But the De-Rating Has Made the Thesis Cheaper, Not Broken
Recap: Q4 2025
Maintaining Progressive at Outperform: A Record FY2025 — 40% Comprehensive ROE, 87.4 Combined Ratio — and Management Returns ~$8B While Buying Back a Year’s Worth of Stock in a Single Month
Recap: Q3 2025
Upgrading Progressive to Outperform: The EPS “Miss” Is a One-Time $950M Florida Excess-Profits Charge — Ex-Florida It Was a Beat — and a ~15% Selloff Hands Us the Entry We Wanted
Recap: Q2 2025
Initiating Progressive at Hold: A Best-in-Class Quarter — Net Income Doubles, 86.2 Combined Ratio, PIF +15% — But Peak Comps, an Intensifying Market, and a Full Multiple Cap the Near-Term Setup