Margins Beat, Volume Flat, Tariff Risk Withdrawn — But the Real Catalyst Is Still 10 Weeks Away

Results vs. Consensus

Ferrari pre-released Q2 2025 results on the morning of July 31, 2025 (Maranello). The headline print delivered the typical Ferrari texture: in-line-to-slight-miss on the top line, beat on margins, beat on free cash flow, and a confidence-laden guidance reaffirmation. Sell-side consensus was framed around EPS of ~€2.40 and revenue of ~€1.81-1.82B (USD-quoted in much of the news flow); the company posted €2.38 diluted EPS and €1.787B revenue. EBITDA, EBIT and industrial FCF all came in modestly above the implied consensus framing.

Year-over-Year Comparison

H1 2025 Comparison (Context for Annual Cadence)

H1 sets up the back half cleanly: H1 EBIT of €1,094M against FY guidance of ≥€2.03B implies H2 EBIT of ≥€936M — a step-down from H1 that management explicitly telegraphed (softer mix from Daytona SP3 phaseout in Q3, only "a few units" of F80 in Q4, higher SG&A for launch activity, higher D&A from new-model startup). The H1 industrial FCF outperformance (€852M vs. guided full-year ≥€1.2B implies just ~€350M needed in H2) gives the company a comfortable buffer to resume the €2B multi-year share repurchase program in the back half, which management committed to during the call.

Quality of Beat/Miss

Revenue Assessment

Revenue growth of +4.4% with shipments substantially flat means 100% of growth came from mix, pricing, personalization and brand activities. That is fine as long as it's a deliberate choice and not a demand constraint — and the order book commentary (entering 2027 with all in-production models substantially sold out, plus overwhelming 296 Speciale family demand) supports the deliberate-allocation read. But the cars-and-spare-parts line growing just 2.3% is the slowest pace since H1 2022, and the call surfaced legitimate questions about whether ASP momentum is decelerating ahead of an even tougher mix comparison in H2 (Daytona phaseout, F80 only "a few units" in Q4). The non-cars revenue lines — sponsorship/commercial/brand +22%, Other +7% — are doing meaningful work in keeping the headline growth rate near 5%.

The 20% personalization rate (of cars-and-spare-parts revenue) was reiterated as "continuing very strong" and was a positive tone-shift relative to the (silent) concern that personalization had peaked. Carbon and paint options are driving incremental adoption; the SF90 XX and Daytona SP3 are the highest-personalization vehicles in the lineup. The question is whether 20% is a steady-state ceiling or has further room — the call did not address this directly.

Margins Assessment

30.9% EBIT margin is the strongest Q2 in Ferrari's listed history and reflects four converging tailwinds: (1) positive mix (+€47M Mix/price variance driven by SF90 XX and 12Cilindri), (2) flat D&A (the model-changeover dynamic — Daytona done amortizing, F80 not yet contributing), (3) "other" positive of +€36M (revised F1 in-season ranking assumption — Ferrari was second in the prior-year championship, so the comparable racing cost intensity is now lower), and (4) absent Q2 2024 racing-cost intensity (the WEC and F1 cost calendar shifts). Some of this is genuinely structural (mix, personalization), some is calendar-driven (D&A, racing), and the call's explicit warning that D&A will be higher in H2 with new-model start-of-production is a clear margin-headwind flag.

The removal of the 50bps tariff risk-buffer from FY guidance is a quiet but meaningful upgrade: it implies the company now believes the prior-FY-margin (~38.3% EBITDA) floor is comfortably achievable on a steady-state tariff regime rather than the prior 27.5% rate. The implied FY EBIT margin of ≥29% in the guidance is roughly 70bps above the 28.3% delivered in 2024.

EPS Assessment

€2.38 diluted EPS missed the implied ~€2.40 consensus by less than a penny. The miss is entirely below-the-line — operating profit beat — and traces to two factors: (1) net financial expense of €7M vs. effectively zero in Q2 2024, reflecting FX impact in the financing line; and (2) a 22% effective tax rate vs. 19.5% in Q2 2024, reflecting the change in the Patent Box regime that is a known FY headwind. Share count was modestly lower YoY (178.4M diluted vs. 180.2M) — buyback contribution is real but modest; the call's commitment to resume the €2B program in H2 is the lever to extract more EPS leverage in 2026.

Segment Performance — Geographic

EMEA — Slowing but Not Sliding

EMEA was -9 units in Q2 but is still +4% YTD, and the H1 2025 EMEA over-index is a reflection of Ferrari's deliberate allocation strategy — Europe gets first crack at new specials given the Maranello-proximity logistics and the higher concentration of repeat clients and Cavalcade participants. Management acknowledged UK residual-value pressure earlier in the call ("we put in place some actions that are showing good trends") — this is a known pocket of concern but did not surface as a Q2 numbers issue.

"As customary, the geographic breakdown reflects the different product cycle as well as the company deliberate allocation strategy." — Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: EMEA volumes are following the allocation model, not the demand curve. The "deliberate allocation" framing has been consistent for years and is a defining feature of the Ferrari narrative — units don't go where demand is highest, they go where the brand-equity equation says they should. This is what the franchise sells; criticism of EMEA softness is criticism of the model, not the quarter.

Americas — The Healthiest Demand Signal

Americas units of 993 were +12 YoY (+1%), with the US specifically at 849 units (+27 / +3%). This is the cleanest pocket of positive volume in the quarter, and YTD US deliveries of 1,710 (+38 / +2%) confirm the US remains the single most important growth market. The market backdrop is supportive — US luxury auto demand has been resilient, US wealthy consumer balance sheets are intact, and Ferrari benefited in Q2 from the dynamic that essentially all US-bound deliveries were pre-tariff inventory (imported before April 3, 2025).

"Volume was substantially flat. The Mix / price variance performance was positive for Euro 47 million, mainly reflecting the enrichment of the product mix... the positive country mix mainly driven by Americas." — Q2 2025 Press Release / Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: The Americas country-mix tailwind is doing real work in margins — US deliveries skew higher-personalization and higher-ASP than EMEA average. The unanswered question is what happens in Q3 and Q4 when the inventory buffer runs down and 27.5%-tariffed units start landing on dealers' floors with no commercial-policy pass-through (the price increase Ferrari announced March 27, 2025 remains in effect until the new 15% rate is formally implemented). This is the single most-watched line item for the H2 print.

Mainland China-HK-Taiwan — The Structural Pocket of Weakness

The region was -1% in Q2 alone, but the YTD picture is sobering: -14% region-wide and -20% Mainland China specifically (356 units YTD vs. 443 prior year). Vigna acknowledged in the call that the 12Cilindri's tax-disadvantaged structure in Mainland China is a real headwind (12-cylinder tariffs in China make the car "more or less 2.7x the price you pay in Italy"), and explicitly positioned the new Amalfi as a deliberate response: a V8 2+ coupé that is "more suitable for the Chinese market." Mainland China deliveries are now a single-quarter cadence of ~175-200 units — small in absolute terms (~5% of total) but the directionality matters because every other luxury house is reporting the same trend with worse magnitude.

"Last year — last call, I was also generic telling Dodici Cilindri not only as a car, but as a motorization because usually, the tax on the Dodici Cilindri is higher in China. So the number of people that are willing to pay more or less 2.7x the price you pay in Italy is lower. So that's the reason why we will have a new car, and Amalfi is one of this, that will make — that is more suitable for the Chinese market." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: Mainland China softness is the asymmetric watchlist item. Ferrari is exposed to the Chinese ultra-wealthy luxury-spending wallet in a way that is correlated with Hermès and LVMH; if the broader luxury-China narrative continues to deteriorate, Ferrari will not be immune. The "Amalfi as a China product" framing is constructive but unproven (first deliveries are H1 2026) — and 12-cylinder models structurally cannot grow into China at scale under current tax law. The Mainland China line is small enough today that it is not yet a thesis-mover, but the slope is wrong. If 2026 Mainland China deliveries are still down YoY, it becomes a thesis question.

Rest of APAC — Quiet Strength

+11 units / +2% in Q2 looks unremarkable, but the YTD picture (-2%) understates the underlying signal: Vigna disclosed during Q&A that "we have a record backlog in Asia, if you consider all Asia with the exclusion of Mainland China." Japan, Australia, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand together appear to be absorbing strong order intake on the new models, and the Amalfi has reportedly drawn early interest in these markets.

Assessment: Rest of APAC backlog growth offsets some of the Mainland China weakness in the aggregate Asia narrative. Management did not break out backlog by sub-region, but the "record" qualifier was offered unprompted — a positive signal worth noting for FY26 setup.

Segment Performance — Revenue Category

Cars and Spare Parts — The Slowest Growth in Several Quarters

+2.3% is the lowest cars-and-spare-parts growth rate since the post-pandemic recovery and a notable deceleration from a series of mid-to-high single-digit prints. Decomposition: shipments +0.3% × ASP/mix ~+2% = ~+2.3%. Net of FX, constant-currency growth is +2.6%. The growth is genuinely all mix-and-personalization, not unit, not price-list-increase. With the 296 Speciale launching now (first deliveries late H2) and the F80 starting delivery in Q4 (only "a few units"), the H2 cars line is unlikely to materially accelerate from here — the rest-of-2025 mix is explicitly characterized as "softer than the first half" by management.

"Cars and part growth 3%. Why? It only depends on the development of the product mix based on our plans. I don't know how analysts are making their forecast. But basically, this is in line with our plan of deliveries in terms of model. And as far as personalization is concerned, penetration is at 20%, and we actually see a continuing very strong trend." — Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: A 2-3% cars line is the math you get when the strategy is "low volume controlled growth" and the in-production lineup is approaching end of life. It is not a red flag in itself — but it is a number that requires the F80, 296 Speciale, Amalfi and Elettrica launches to do real heavy lifting in 2026-2027. Modeling cars-and-spare-parts growth at high single digits going forward requires conviction in the new-model cadence delivering ASP uplift; that is the central modeling question.

Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand — Doing the Work

+22% YoY (€205M from €168M) is the segment that's effectively bridging the cars-line deceleration into a respectable headline number. Two structural drivers: (1) F1 World Championship 2024 ranking was higher than 2023 (Ferrari was second in the Constructors' standings — best result in years), which translates to higher commercial revenue distribution from FOM in 2025; (2) sponsorship intake has been strong, including the HP title sponsorship signed in 2024. The lifestyle/brand line is growing into a meaningfully larger contribution as Ferrari expands the fashion and licensing footprint (London store opened in 2025; lifestyle accelerating).

Assessment: This is structurally a high-margin revenue stream (license royalties and brand-fee income have minimal incremental cost), and the +22% growth rate is helping the EBIT margin print. But the F1 commercial-distribution boost annualizes — 2026 distribution will be set by the 2025 ranking, which Ferrari has acknowledged "started below expectation, but in recent races, the team is constantly fighting for podiums." If 2025 Constructors' result drops back, the 2026 sponsorship/commercial line decelerates. This is a quiet but real headwind to model for 2026.

Other — A Steady-State Line

€75M (+7% YoY) is mostly financial services activities, Mugello circuit, and engine rentals to F1 teams. The 2024 line included one-time engine sales to Maserati (now exited) which creates a slightly noisy YoY comparison but the +7% growth is structural.

Assessment: Small line, not a thesis lever. The cleaner read is that the segment composition is gradually shifting from car-heavy (Ferrari-as-automaker) toward a more luxury-conglomerate mix — sponsorship/brand/lifestyle is now 11.5% of revenue vs. 9.8% a year ago. That trajectory matters for the CMD framing and for how the multiple is justified.

Shipments & Model Mix

Q2 2025 saw a significant model changeover. The 296 GTS, Purosangue and Roma Spider drove deliveries. The 12Cilindri family continued its ramp-up. The SF90 XX family increased its contribution. The 296 GTB declined and the SF90 Spider approached end of life. The Daytona SP3 ramped down (~60 units in Q2; ~40 expected in Q3 to complete deliveries). The F80 had zero contribution in Q2 — first units land in Q4 2025.

Powertrain Mix

Six ICE models and five hybrid models shipped during the quarter. The ICE/hybrid ratio is a function of in-production mix — the 12Cilindri (ICE, ramping) is in volume launch; the 296 GTB (hybrid) is winding down ahead of the 296 Speciale (hybrid, in launch). The Amalfi (ICE V8) launches into orders now, with first deliveries H1 2026 — that will push the mix further toward ICE near-term until the Elettrica launches at the October 9 CMD and starts shipping later.

"The share of hybrid, you should not take, let's say, punctual quarter-by-quarter. What I can tell you is that it depends a lot what is offered... we may have a slight decrease of the percentage of the hybrid cars because we have more IC to sell." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: The hybrid-share decline is mechanical given the launch cadence — it is not a demand statement. But it complicates the narrative for ESG-mandated investors who track electrification percentage by manufacturer, and it sharpens the importance of the CMD's electrification timeline disclosure. The original 2022 plan targeted 40% BEV by 2030; whether that target is reaffirmed or trimmed at the CMD is a key data point that the Q2 call explicitly declined to address.

Industrial Free Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

Q2 industrial FCF of €232M nearly doubled YoY, and H1 FCF of €852M is already 71% of the full-year guidance floor of €1.20B. The "clean" H1 number, adjusting for the €34M withholding-tax timing benefit, is closer to €818M — still a comfortable beat against the full-year math. Capex of €239M in Q2 was down €29M YoY, reflecting the front-loaded paint shop and e-building investment cadence; FY capex is expected to be "more contained vs. prior year."

Net industrial debt of €338M at June 30, 2025 (vs. €49M at March 31, 2025) reflects the €536M dividend payment in May (€502M paid, balance withheld for tax). Total liquidity remains strong at €2,068M (including €550M undrawn committed lines). The €2B multi-year share repurchase program was paused but management committed to "resume the repurchases, aiming to complete the program by year-end" — meaningful buying pressure expected in Q3-Q4.

Assessment: The cash-flow story is excellent and improving — H1 FCF nearly 2x the prior year on operating cash flow expansion. FCF conversion is structurally strong because Ferrari is capex-light relative to mass-market peers (no full electrified portfolio rebuild underway), and working capital is supportive in 2025 due to the pre-tariff US inventory build that has now mostly worked through. The capital return is real: ≥€1.2B FCF, a €536M dividend already paid, plus the resumption of buybacks to complete a €2B program by year-end implies ~€1.5B+ of capital returned in 2025.

Tariff Dynamics — The Core Cross-Quarter Story

Ferrari is the cleanest US-tariff narrative in the luxury auto space because almost all of its cars are built in Maranello and shipped to the US. The chronology now reads as follows:

1. March 27, 2025: Ferrari pre-announced a commercial policy adjustment in anticipation of US auto tariffs on EU-origin vehicles. Price increases on certain models (typically ~5-10%) effective from April 2025. Management flagged a 50bps margin risk to FY guidance.
2. April 3, 2025: US auto tariffs took effect at 27.5% on EU vehicles. Ferrari was effectively shielded for Q2 because the majority of US-bound goods were imported pre-April.
3. Late July 2025: US-EU framework agreement reached at a 15% rate for EU autos.
4. July 31, 2025 (Q2 print): Ferrari withdrew the 50bps margin risk-buffer from FY guidance. Net effect on guidance: stronger confidence, no change in numerical targets. Commercial policy remains at the elevated price level (announced March 27) until the new 15% rate is formally implemented; once it is, Ferrari said it "will adapt our commercial policy."

The longer-running question is what happens when Ferrari adapts its commercial policy to the new 15% rate. The press-release framing — "as of now, it is not yet implemented" — suggests a multi-step price reset is on the table. In a normal commodity-auto product, lower tariffs would mean lower prices. But Ferrari's commercial-policy framing has historically been about "passing on the cost to the client" — the implication is that if the cost goes down, the price could come down too, which would be a clean PR-positive but a modest revenue-per-unit headwind. The call signaled "wait and see" rather than commitment.

Guidance & Outlook

The headline of the Q2 print is the FY guidance was reaffirmed at the same numerical floors, but with "stronger confidence" and the 50bps tariff margin risk removed. The numerical floors did not move up — and that is itself a tell. Management had explicit room to lift the EBITDA or EBIT floor on the basis of the H1 outperformance plus the tariff resolution, and chose not to. The CFO's commentary about H2 — "deliveries deliberately reduce[d] compared to 2024 to prioritize quality of revenues over volume, softer product mix versus the first half of the year, higher SG&A linked to corporate and commercial activities, higher D&A, greater headwind from FX" — explains why.

"We confirm the 2025 guidance with stronger confidence on all metrics and removed the 50 basis point risk on percentage margins following the recent agreement on U.S. tariffs as well as lower industrial costs in H2 compared to our initial expectations. All this based on current information despite the remaining uncertainty with respect to the time line of application of the lower U.S. duties on cars and other products manufactured in the European Union, which should impact the second part of the year." — Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Implied H2 EBIT: H1 EBIT of €1,094M against FY guidance ≥€2.03B implies H2 EBIT of ≥€936M, equivalent to an H2 EBIT margin of roughly 27.4% (assuming similar H2 revenue cadence to H1) — a 320bp step-down from the H1 30.6% margin. That's consistent with the explicit H2 headwinds — Daytona phaseout, F80 ramp, higher SG&A and D&A, FX, tariff. The guidance has clear running room above the floor if the H2 industrial-cost tailwind materializes as expected.

Street at: Pre-Q2 Street modeling was sitting at roughly €7.10B revenue, €2.75B EBITDA (39.0% margin), €2.10B EBIT (29.5% margin), and €8.85 EPS — comfortably above the guidance floor and consistent with a typical Ferrari "guide low, deliver above" cadence. The Q2 print likely keeps consensus largely unchanged.

Guidance style: Conservative. Ferrari has historically delivered above its guidance midpoint by 2-4% on revenue and 50-150bps on margin in each of the last three full years. The "stronger confidence" language is the company's most-bullish guidance-posture wording short of an explicit floor raise.

Key Topics & Management Commentary

Overall management tone: Confident throughout, with two distinct postures depending on subject. On Q2 results, FCF and margin discipline, the prepared remarks and Q&A were calm and matter-of-fact — this was a print management was comfortable defending. On forward-looking strategic questions (Elettrica positioning, post-2030 electrification mix, Capital Markets Day content, second BEV timing), management was deliberately and consistently opaque, repeatedly deferring substantive answers to October 9. The pattern was so consistent across multiple analyst attempts that the deferral became its own signal: October 9 is the entire game.

1. The October 9 Capital Markets Day Overhang

Every meaningful strategic question on the call was rerouted to the upcoming CMD. The Elettrica positioning, the second-BEV question, the 40% electrification target, the post-2030 product roadmap, the long-term capex envelope — all were answered with variations of "you'll see in a few weeks" or "we will share at the CMD." This is unusual in degree even by Ferrari standards.

"At the Capital Markets Day, we'll disclose you in detail what this company intends to do in terms of marketing strategy, product strategy, financial strategy, the business plan. I mean, expect from us to get the same kind of transparency and clarity that we got — we did and we shared with all the world 3 years ago." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

The 2022 CMD set a path through 2026 that has been broadly delivered against (15-model roadmap, 11th model just launched with the Amalfi; revenue and margin targets effectively achieved or exceeded). The October 9 CMD will set the post-2026 path, including the electrification trajectory, the long-term financial framework, and presumably an extension of the multi-year capital return story.

Assessment: The CMD is positioned as the single most important investor event for Ferrari since the IPO. Expectations are elevated: a clear electrification roadmap, an Elettrica pricing reveal that doesn't compromise the brand's pricing-power narrative, and a new 2030 financial framework. The risk is that any of these arrives below buy-side hopes; if all three deliver, the stock can re-rate higher from here. This is the central asymmetry for the next 10 weeks.

2. The Elettrica — First BEV Unveil October 9

Vigna confirmed the Ferrari Elettrica unveil for Q4 2025 (specifically at the October 9 CMD) is "perfectly in line" with the 2022 promise, with "not an hour of delay." He has personally driven the car on the test track. The positioning question — halo product for existing Ferraristi vs. new-client acquisition — was deflected, though Vigna allowed that "this car is meant for the people that want it... for, let's say, people that are already in the community as well as for people that will join the community."

"We are perfectly in line with what we said. We are trying the car. The car is proceeding as planned. There is not an hour of delay, single hour of delay on this project... 8th of October, when there will be the unveil of this car, of the engineering of this car, you will see what's behind the article and our words." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

The choice of language is interesting: "the engineering of this car" — implying the October 9 reveal is technical/engineering-focused rather than pricing/positioning. Pricing and full positioning may roll out separately, possibly to dealers first per Vigna's general practice ("imagine that you have to disclose first the price to our dealers, and then we can disclose it publicly").

Assessment: Ferrari is positioning the Elettrica as a controlled, deliberate introduction. The "people that want it" framing is consistent with the brand's allocation philosophy — there will be no marketing-driven push to expand the BEV adoption curve. The risk is that the buy-side, primed for an aspirational price point ($500K+ to preserve brand equity), is disappointed by anything closer to a 296-equivalent ~$350-400K range. The reward is that a successful launch — with allocation-controlled volumes, halo brand effect, and the order book extending into 2027 — confirms the franchise can transition without dilution. October 9 is the binary.

3. Order Book — Through 2026, Approaching 2027

The order book is the single most important structural metric for a low-volume luxury automaker because it is the demand-side moat. Management's framing: order book entering 2027, with "all the range models currently in production substantially sold out," and the 296 Speciale family "nearly reaching full coverage of the life cycle" of demand. Plus a "record backlog in Asia, if you consider all Asia with the exclusion of Mainland China."

"We continue to hold a strong order book entering 2027 without considering the new launched cars, and with all the range models currently in production substantially sold out." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Worth noting: the order book extension has been described as "entering 2027" for several consecutive quarters now, and the Q2 2025 framing did not extend further. That is consistent with management's reluctance to over-promise on long-dated visibility, but it also means the order book is not still extending forward at a 1:1 pace with calendar time — it is being filled out within the current visibility window.

Assessment: A multi-year sold-out backlog is a remarkable demand artifact and the single most important justification for Ferrari's multiple. But the extension dynamic — book filling out the current window rather than extending the window — is worth watching. If the order book is still "entering 2027" at the Q1 2026 print, the implied book duration has shortened by 4-6 months; if it has extended to "entering 2028," it has lengthened. The Amalfi and Elettrica order intake (both opening over the next 6 months) will be the primary determinants.

4. Personalization — Holding at 20% of Cars Revenue

Personalization revenue stayed at ~20% of cars-and-spare-parts revenue — meaningfully above the historical 16-18% range that prevailed pre-pandemic. The drivers are carbon-fiber options and bespoke paint programs, plus the SF90 XX and Daytona SP3 (the two highest-personalization vehicles in the lineup). Management was emphatic that the trend is "continuing very strong" — a positive tone-shift relative to a (silent) question of whether personalization had peaked.

"Personalizations keep on being very strong, accounting for approximately 20% of total revenues from cars and spare parts, supported by the Daytona SP3 and the SF90 XX family in terms of model and mainly by the adoption of carbon and paintings in terms of offering." — Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

20% is a meaningful KPI: it implies that approximately €300M of Q2 revenue came from options-and-personalization on a €1,507M cars-and-spare-parts base. The margins on personalization are well above the corporate average — incremental carbon-fiber options carry sub-30% cost, vs. the ~70% cost on a base vehicle. This is the single highest-margin revenue line in the company.

Assessment: Personalization at 20% appears to be a new structural floor, not a temporary cyclical high. The risk is composition: if the personalization rate is sustained partly by aging-out specials (Daytona SP3 ends Q3 2025; SF90 XX runs through 2026), the rate will be tested as the Amalfi (lower personalization adoption typically on the entry V8) ramps. Management's framing suggests confidence; the data will tell us in 2026.

5. The F80 — Q4 2025 First Deliveries

Ferrari's flagship hypercar successor to the LaFerrari ramps in Q4 2025 with "the first units of the F80 shipped in Q4." The F80 was originally unveiled in October 2024 at €3.6M ex-options. Total production of 799 units across the program lifecycle, allocated to top-tier clients. Q4 contribution to volume will be small (in the high tens of units), but the contribution to mix-and-margin is meaningful given the price point — F80 deliveries effectively replace the Daytona SP3 line in the highest-end product slot.

"If I look at the sports car business, I mean, it goes without saying that Daytona will be lower because it will be the last quarter we sell it. We don't have the F80 yet. And we just have a few units of the F80 in the last quarter." — Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: The F80 is a structural margin support and a brand-prestige asset. It's not a 2025 P&L story (volume too small), but it sets up a meaningful 2026 mix tailwind as the program ramps to full annual cadence. The Daytona-to-F80 handoff is the single most important model-cycle dynamic over the next 4 quarters.

6. The Amalfi — Replacing the Roma, Targeting the Entry Tier and China

The Ferrari Amalfi was unveiled July 1, 2025, immediately ahead of the Q2 print. It is a V8 2+ coupé replacing the Ferrari Roma in the lineup. Pricing reportedly comes in roughly 10% above the outgoing Roma and 20% above the original Roma launch price — a clean pricing-power demonstration. First deliveries are H1 2026. Vigna explicitly positioned the Amalfi as a deliberate response to Mainland China weakness (V8 not 12-cylinder, so more accessible to the Chinese taxation structure) and as a customer-acquisition tool ("we have a decent amount of clients that are joining our community from other brands").

"Amalfi is one of these [models] that will make — that is more suitable for the Chinese market. So the Amalfi, and I go back to the first of your questions, if you want two key messages. One, it offer us the possibility to improve the offering in countries such as China because over there, the offering was a little bit limited with the model we had before. And two, is a car that is meant that by putting together the sportiness and the comfort and elegance and the price that is meant also to bring in our world, in our community, clients from other brands." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: The Amalfi is the entry-point growth lever. It plays two roles: (1) addresses the structural Mainland China constraint that the 12Cilindri can't, and (2) brings in clients from competing luxury houses (Aston Martin, Bentley, Maserati, Porsche 911 GT3). Successful launches at the entry tier are how Ferrari expands the addressable Ferraristi base without compromising the top of the range — a key piece of any long-term growth math.

7. 296 Speciale — Overwhelming Demand

The 296 Speciale family was unveiled April 29, 2025 — a higher-performance variant of the 296 GTB / GTS based on racing-derived technology. Management characterized demand as "overwhelming" and noted that orders are "nearly reaching full coverage of the life cycle" — i.e., the program is effectively sold out before serial production starts. Geographic distribution of demand is broad: Middle East, Japan, US, Europe.

"The demand is very strong. We do not have any color or any, I would say, pattern — geographical pattern. We have people from Middle East as well from Japan or U.S. or Europe that are extremely happy and anxious, let's say, to get a car like this. The commentary about the design that is completely new. It's about also the color offering." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: A program selling its full lifecycle before first delivery is the textbook Ferrari demand signal. The 296 Speciale extends the 296 platform's commercial life (296 GTB winding down; Speciale extends the platform into 2026-2027) and provides an in-flight mix-tailwind to bridge to the Elettrica and F80 cycles. Strong demand here directly supports H2 2025 backlog narrative.

8. Hypersail — The Unexpected Brand Extension

On June 25, 2025, Ferrari unveiled the Hypersail project — an offshore-sailing R&D platform under Team Principal Giovanni Soldini. The framing is open-innovation and technology transfer between high-performance sailing (aerodynamics, energy efficiency, flight-control systems on foiling boats) and high-performance road and racing cars. This is a brand-extension experiment with no current P&L impact.

Assessment: Hypersail is small money and unclear strategic logic at the surface, but the underlying intent appears to be twofold: (1) a brand-prestige play to extend Ferrari beyond automotive into adjacent performance arenas (Hermès has expanded into multiple categories successfully; the playbook is not unknown), and (2) a technology-transfer R&D excuse to fund engineering work on energy management and aero systems that have BEV-adjacent applications. Neither benefit is quantifiable today, but the cost is also small. Treat as brand-investment OpEx with optionality.

9. Industrial Investment — E-Building, Paint Shop, Test Track

Three industrial-investment milestones noted: (1) the e-building production ramp-up "proceeding at pace" (in support of the BEV program); (2) new paint shop construction "just finished the walls" with equipment installation imminent; (3) construction began on a new sports-car testing track adjacent to Maranello facilities, "dedicated to sports car testing... to enhance the accuracy and repeatability of road car testing." All three are capital expenditures that are absorbed within the existing FY capex envelope.

"We continue to invest in what makes us Ferrari: client centricity, product excellence, technology advancement. And it is especially thanks to the ideas of our people that we can continue to evolve and innovate." — Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: The industrial capex cadence is being managed inside a deliberately constrained envelope (FY capex "more contained vs. prior year" per the guidance). The e-building and paint shop are core BEV-program infrastructure; the test track is a quality/development tool that also represents a meaningful R&D moat (most rivals don't have dedicated sports-car-specific test infrastructure at the Maranello-proximity level). All three investments are decade-relevant; none changes the H2 P&L cadence.

10. F1 Performance and the Constructors' Race

Vigna acknowledged the 2025 F1 season "started below expectation" but framed recent races as "constantly fighting for podiums and wins." Ferrari also extended Team Principal Fred Vasseur's contract on July 31, 2025 — same day as earnings, suggesting commitment to continuity through the regulatory reset coming in 2026.

The 24 Hours of Le Mans win in June 2025 — Ferrari's third consecutive Le Mans victory — secures the team the winner's trophy permanently (a privilege granted to teams winning three consecutive editions). This is racing-brand prestige with measurable ROI through the Hypercar/WEC programs.

Assessment: The F1 narrative matters for sponsorship/commercial revenue (a higher Constructors' ranking translates to higher FOM distribution the following year). 2024's improved ranking is contributing to 2025 commercial line; a weaker 2025 ranking would create a 2026 sponsorship line headwind. The Vasseur extension is a stability vote in the racing program through the 2026 regulatory transition. Le Mans is brand reinforcement at moderate marginal cost.

11. Lifestyle & Brand Activities — Quietly Compounding

Lifestyle revenue (folded into the sponsorship/commercial/brand line) is expanding via the London store opening, new fashion collections, licensing income, and retail experiences. Management referenced "lifestyle activities to expand its revenues growth rate, while investing to accelerate development and enlarge the network" in the FY guidance assumption block. The 1,500-guest Amalfi launch event on the Amalfi Coast in July 2025 doubled as a brand-investment exercise as much as a model launch.

Assessment: Lifestyle is the optionality lever. Hermès derives roughly half its revenue from non-automotive non-leather categories now; Ferrari is at single-digit share of revenue from lifestyle. The CMD is likely to reaffirm a multi-year lifestyle growth target. The investment phase (network buildout, store openings) creates near-term SG&A drag for medium-term margin upside.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Cars-and-Spare-Parts Growth Deceleration and ASP Outlook

One of the most directly-pressed lines of questioning concerned the 2-3% cars-and-spare-parts revenue growth rate — the slowest in several quarters — and whether it implies ASP-momentum slowing. The CFO's response was a defensive recasting: the growth rate is "in line with our plan of deliveries in terms of model" and reflects mix mechanics rather than demand deterioration. The framing implied that buy-side modeling was simply ahead of what Ferrari believed the appropriate cadence to be — a polite version of "your model was too aggressive."

Q: "First one, regarding your cars and spare parts growth at 3%. This is lower growth than we have seen in quite some time. So it seems that the ASP was weaker than maybe some people in the market expected. And was that something to do also with personalization? Or how do you expect this ASP to then evolve for the rest of the year? Because my impression was that Q3 was meant to be, let's say, the weakest part of the year, whereas Q2 also ended up being quite weak."
— Susy Tibaldi, UBS

A: "Cars and part growth 3%. Why? It only depends on the development of the product mix based on our plans. I don't know how analysts are making their forecast. But basically, this is in line with our plan of deliveries in terms of model. And as far as personalization is concerned, as I said before, penetration is at 20%, and we actually see a continuing very strong trend."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: This was the cleanest moment of analyst-versus-management framing-tension on the call. The CFO declined to engage substantively with the implied criticism (buy-side ASP modeling was off) and instead reframed it as a mix-cadence issue. The implicit message — "our plan is the right plan; your model wasn't" — is consistent with Ferrari's institutional style. But the response did not address the substantive concern about H2 mix being even more challenging than Q2.

Why Remove the 50bps Tariff Margin Buffer Now

The decision to remove the 50bps margin risk buffer with the new 15% US-EU tariff agreement still pending formal implementation drew direct pushback — the underlying question being whether management was over-stepping forward. The CFO's response anchored the decision in the lower H2 industrial costs and the H1 ranking-assumption revision, not exclusively the tariff agreement, which provides a more defensible framing.

Q: "You said you're more confident on the guidance and you removed the 50 bps cautious element of it. But at the same time, you say you're going to align the pricing to the evolution of tariffs. So could you explain why you don't keep this 50 bps element of caution?"
— Thomas Besson, Kepler Cheuvreux

A: "On this confidence on the guidance and removal of the 50 basis points, the main reason is that we added in my explanation, meaning we expect now industrial costs for the second half of the year lower than we had originally anticipated. That helps us to compensate together obviously with the fact that the assumptions on the ranking in Formula 1 is now different compared to the beginning of the year. Those are the main..."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: A constructive answer that decoupled the margin-buffer removal from the still-pending tariff implementation. The implication is that Ferrari believes the H2 cost trajectory has improved structurally enough — lower industrial inflation, lower racing-cost intensity — to absorb the tariff regardless of timing. This is more bullish than the headline guidance language suggests, since the 50bps was withdrawn while the actual tariff risk is unresolved.

The Elettrica Positioning Question

The most explicit attempt to extract Elettrica positioning detail came early in Q&A. The framing — whether the car is a halo for existing Ferraristi or a new-client acquisition vehicle — was a deliberate provocation aimed at extracting an answer through binary forcing. Vigna gracefully declined to provide either answer, instead offering a both-and framing ("for the people that want it") that maintained the deferral to CMD.

Q: "Is this [Elettrica] positioned as more of a halo type of vehicle that would be offered to existing Ferraristi as like a very desired kind of — obviously, it will be desired, but more for the existing family, the club, the members of the club, existing members of the club, who you can kind of trust, who will appreciate the engineering and the effort you put into it... Or is it kind of designed to kind of expand and bring in new Ferraristi right away, right off the bat?"
— Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley

A: "Definitely is a good try for you to understand how the car is positioned, but you still have to bear with us a few more weeks, and then October will be more clear. Sorry about that. I know you are curious, I would be curious already in your shoes. But it's a good try. You did well. I can tell you that this car is meant for the people that want it. As I said, we don't want to push the car, we want the people to have — to be in love with the car. And it's for, let's say, people that are already in the community as well as for people that will join the community because of this addition, not transition, addition to our offering."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: "Addition, not transition" is a load-bearing phrase. It signals that the Elettrica is positioned as an additive product to the lineup, not a replacement for the ICE/hybrid range. That framing protects the brand's combustion-engine prestige and softens the risk of an Elettrica launch being interpreted as the start of a forced electrification path. It also implicitly means the BEV will not be priced as a "value-for-electric" entry — it's a premium addition, not a value substitute. This is the most substantive piece of guidance on the car's positioning that was offered on the call, even though it was framed as a non-answer.

The Second BEV — Is the Plan Delayed?

The Reuters reporting heading into the print suggested the second Ferrari BEV had been delayed due to weak demand signals — a framing Vigna rejected emphatically. The defense rests on a literal-reading: Ferrari never publicly committed to a second BEV; the 2022 CMD plan referenced 40% BEV by 2030 without specifying model count.

Q: "As you're aware, the story is about you guys delaying the launch of the second electric vehicle due to perceived lack or lower levels of demand. I find that quite incomprehensible. So given that you're on the line, can you clarify exactly what the position is, please?"
— Flavio Cereda, GAM

A: "I think that we said in 2022 that in Q4 '25, we were going to unveil our electric car, and that's what we will do. We are keeping, delivering on promise. So we are perfectly in line with what we said. We are trying the car. The car is proceeding as planned. There is not an hour of delay, single hour of delay on this project. It's very important. So it's — we never talked about the second car or the third electric cars."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: A categorical defense on the first BEV (no delay), but notably silent on the second BEV (which Vigna correctly observes was never publicly committed). The unanswered question — what is the BEV cadence after the first model? — is left for the CMD. Reuters reporting of "delays" appears to be a derivative of the absence of a clear second-BEV commitment, which is the kind of narrative pressure that builds in the absence of guidance. The CMD response on the 40% BEV target will be the moment that fills in or invalidates the Reuters narrative.

H2 Mix and the Daytona-F80 Handoff

One of the most substantively useful exchanges concerned how H2 product mix shapes up relative to H2 2024 — important because the headline H2 step-down expectation hinges on it. The CFO's "rather neutral" framing for H2 2025 mix vs. H2 2024 is more constructive than the buy-side had pre-positioned (most modeling implied a clear H2 mix headwind on Daytona phaseout).

Q: "The last quarter, I'm referring to the last quarter, Daytona will no longer be there, but we will have the few deliveries of the F80 and a much more visible impact from SF90 XX and Dodici Cilindri. Can we say that this could compensate — could offset the lack of the Daytona, Antonio?"
— Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo

A: "In terms of mix, we expect the second half to be pretty neutral compared to last year, as a result of the changeover of lower Daytona disappearing in Q4 and the initial sales of the F80, and the ramp-up of the XX and Dodici Cilindri."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: This is a quietly bullish data point. "Pretty neutral" H2 mix means the SF90 XX, 12Cilindri and F80 launches collectively offset the Daytona SP3 absence — implying the structural mix engine continues to work even through the highest-stakes product-cycle transition since the F12 to 12Cilindri swap. Combined with the H2 industrial-cost tailwind disclosed elsewhere, this raises the bar for the H2 print to genuinely surprise to the downside.

Tariff Customer Behavior — Cancellations or Wait-and-See?

A recurring line of questioning concerned whether the tariff overhang had created customer-level behavior changes — specifically order cancellations or postponements. The CFO's answer disaggregated tariff-specific effects (none observed) from general macro/luxury uncertainty (some "wait and see" in certain regions, hard to pin to tariff specifically), and combined that with the structural observation that the in-production lineup is mostly sold out — making sentiment-on-orders effectively unmeasurable.

Q: "I'm just wondering if you saw in the past couple of months, any signs of client cancellations or postponing orders and if this has changed at all since we've had more clarity on the tariff environment."
— Anthony Dick, ODDO BHF

A: "We do not have the sense that tariffs have an implication in terms of customers' behavior, at least not a clarity in this respect. It's more — perhaps if I had to mention, it's more somewhere the uncertainty that may have created a sort of wait and see in some areas of this world related to the uncertainty. But it's very difficult to judge because it's also — the order intake very much depends on the cars that we have available for order. And since we are close to the end of life cycles of several of our models and the others are sold out, we can't really measure what's the overall sentiment in respect of introduction of a new car, at least for now."
— Antonio Picca Piccon, CFO

Assessment: No tariff-specific cancellations is genuinely reassuring. But the "we can't really measure sentiment because everything is sold out" framing cuts both ways — it protects the company from acknowledging slowdowns but also limits visibility into the underlying demand pulse. The single measurable demand-pulse this year is the Amalfi early order intake (now being collected); the Elettrica order intake will be the next.

F1 and Regulatory Environment Impact on Product Cadence

The question of whether changing US regulatory dynamics — specifically the de-prioritization of the EPA — affects Ferrari's electric-product timing got the predictable answer (Ferrari does what Ferrari does, regulation is external), but it was framed with an interesting concession: Vigna acknowledged that boundary conditions changing creates "a good push for us... an opportunity for us to keep challenging us." The framing implicitly accepts that external regulatory pressure has been a forcing function on the electrification roadmap to date.

Q: "It seems like we don't have an EPA anymore in the United States. Some of those factors, do they at least affect some of the timing or medium or longer-term product rollouts in any way of your more electric products? Or is your answer, I think, predictably going to be, Adam, we do our own thing. We can't control the rules and it has nothing to do with us?"
— Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley

A: "I don't think there is any company in the world that can control how the things are moving outside their wall. So we control what we do... When the boundary conditions change, it's a good push for us. It's an opportunity for us to keep challenging us, to keep learning and to keep redefining the limit."
— Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Assessment: Vigna's reply doesn't directly answer whether the electrification roadmap will slow in response to looser US regulation. The Capital Markets Day in October is the moment this question gets a real answer. If the post-2026 BEV cadence is shifted out vs. the 2022 plan, the implicit cause will be a combination of demand realism and regulatory flexibility, and the latter has now materially changed.

What They're NOT Saying

1. Q3 unit guidance: Management explicitly declined to provide Q3 shipment guidance when asked directly. "Q3 shipments overall, we do not provide in advance, as you may imagine." For a company with multi-year order visibility, this is more about institutional preference than information opacity — but it leaves Q3 modeling more uncertain than it has to be, particularly given the Daytona-F80 handoff and tariff transition.
2. Elettrica pricing: Repeatedly deferred to CMD or later. The market is sensitive to whether the BEV is positioned at a 296-equivalent ~$350K-400K, an F8/812 Superfast ~$500K, or a SF90 XX ~$800K+ price point. Each implies very different volume math.
3. 2030 electrification target: The 2022 CMD set 40% BEV by 2030. Management acknowledged the target ("you remember well, 40% of our offering in 2030") but did not reaffirm it directly. The CMD will either reaffirm or trim — and the latter is the bear-case fear.
4. Personalization sustainability: Management characterized 20% personalization as "continuing very strong" but offered no view on the medium-term ceiling. If personalization is structurally sustained at 20%, the value of the personalization revenue stream alone is $1B+ at maturity — material to the SOTP. The omission of medium-term color suggests management is being careful not to anchor.
5. Mainland China path back to growth: -14% YTD region-wide; -20% Mainland-China-only. The discussion was a defense (12Cilindri tax disadvantage, Amalfi as the response) but offered no timeline for when the China line returns to growth. Given Amalfi first deliveries are H1 2026, Mainland China is unlikely to inflect this fiscal year.
6. Capex absolute dollars: "More contained vs. prior year" is the only forward-capex commentary. No 5-year capex framework. The CMD will address this; for now, the buy-side is modeling FY25 capex of ~€900M-€1.0B with a glide path back toward €800M post-paint-shop completion.
7. F1 Constructors' ranking 2025 outlook: "Started below expectation" but "fighting for podiums and wins" — no implicit ranking forecast. A 2025 ranking lower than 2024's second place would create a 2026 commercial-revenue headwind worth ~€30-50M.
8. Buyback pace: "Aiming to complete the program by year-end" implies the remaining ~€700M of the €2B program is concentrated in H2 — a meaningful technical bid for the stock, but management did not specify a quarterly pace or timing.
9. US residual values: Vigna acknowledged "some models that are a little bit under pressure" in the US, alongside the UK pocket of pressure. No specific quantification or model identification. For a brand that prides itself on residual-value strength, this is a small concession with a long tail.
10. Hybrid mix trajectory: The Q2 drop to 45% hybrid was acknowledged as mechanical, but no forward path was offered. With Amalfi (ICE) launching, hybrid share is unlikely to recover until the Elettrica scales — and the post-Elettrica BEV/hybrid/ICE blend was not addressed.

Market Reaction

• Pre-print setup (NYSE RACE): RACE entered the print at approximately $460-475, having pulled back modestly from an all-time closing high of ~$511.75 on July 25, 2025. The stock was +~70-75% YTD heading into earnings, the strongest YTD performance among major luxury equities. Options-implied move was ~3-4%.
• Print reaction (July 31, 2025): Modestly negative on the headline EPS/revenue miss in the first hour of pre-market trading. Coverage range was roughly -1% to -3% pre-market, with intraday recovery on the call as the FCF beat, margin beat, and "stronger confidence" guidance language took center stage. Close on the day was modestly negative (-0.5% to -1.5% range), peer-luxury complex flat-to-up.

The print did not deliver a clean directional catalyst. The headline miss was small enough — and the underlying quality strong enough — that the dominant near-term driver remained the Capital Markets Day 10 weeks ahead. With most analyst desks holding rating actions until post-CMD, and the technical bid from the resumed buyback program kicking in over the back half of the year, the reaction was effectively a non-event. The stock's behavior into Q3 will be dominated by CMD anticipation, not by Q2 fundamentals.

Street Perspective

Debate: Does China Weakness Mark a Structural Shift or a Temporary Tariff/Macro Headwind?

Bull view: Mainland China is small in the absolute (4-5% of total deliveries) and the weakness is structurally explainable — 12Cilindri tax-disadvantaged, Amalfi launching into the segment, broader luxury-China spending normalizing rather than collapsing. Once the Amalfi reaches Chinese dealers in H1 2026, the line normalizes.

Bear view: Ferrari is exposed to the same ultra-wealthy-China wallet as Hermès and LVMH, both of which have been signaling demand softness for several quarters. The 12Cilindri tax explanation is partial — the deeper issue is that ultra-wealthy Chinese consumers have lower visible-luxury appetite, and Ferrari (one of the most visible luxury possessions) is asymmetrically exposed. China going from 5% to 3% of revenue is the bear path.

Our take: The bear has the better short-term argument and the bull has the better long-term argument. China is correlated with broader Chinese luxury softness, and that correlation is unlikely to break in the next 4-6 quarters. But Ferrari's structural China exposure is small enough that a 30-40% further decline only costs ~150bps of revenue — a manageable headwind. The deeper question is whether the Amalfi successfully reframes the offering for the Chinese market; if it does, the line stabilizes around 5% of revenue and the bear thesis loses its lever. If it doesn't, the implied 40% BEV target by 2030 becomes harder to defend without China.

Debate: Is 20% Personalization Sustainable or at Peak?

Bull view: 20% personalization is a new structural floor enabled by two innovations: (1) the carbon-fiber options program that has dramatically expanded the personalization SKU count, and (2) the Atelier customer experience that has converted previously-rare ultra-bespoke orders into a repeatable offering. The personalization rate has held above 18% for six consecutive quarters now — long enough to call it a regime change rather than a peak.

Bear view: 20% is high. Pre-pandemic, the rate was 16-18%. The current peak is partly driven by aging specials (Daytona SP3, SF90 XX) that have higher-than-average personalization adoption. As those programs wind down and the Amalfi (entry V8, lower personalization rate historically) ramps, the composite rate compresses toward 17-18%. The "approximately 20%" framing in Q2 vs. "above 20%" in earlier quarters may already be the early signal.

Our take: Both arguments have merit, but the bear has a slight edge on the math. The 20% rate is unlikely to expand further from here — the carbon and paint adoption curves are maturing — and the model-mix shift toward Amalfi and Elettrica creates a composition headwind. We model personalization revenue stable in absolute terms with a slight compression in the rate as the cars-and-spare-parts denominator grows. The bull case is that 20% is the floor; the bear case is that the rate compresses 100-200bps. Either way, this is not the line item that breaks the thesis.

Debate: Does the Elettrica Launch Risk Diluting the Combustion Prestige?

Bull view: Ferrari is uniquely positioned to make BEV work as a luxury-brand extension because the brand isn't fundamentally about powertrain — it's about exclusivity, driving experience, and ownership ritual. The Hermès playbook (controlled expansion into new categories with no compromise on quality or supply) is the right reference, not the mass-market luxury-EV failures (Porsche Taycan's lukewarm reception, Audi e-tron GT). Vigna's "addition, not transition" framing is correct, and the Elettrica becomes an additive product line, not a replacement.

Bear view: Sports-car buyers are buying the V8 and V12 howl, the mechanical theater, the heritage. A Ferrari without combustion noise is fundamentally a different value proposition, and the brand's most-loyal Ferraristi may simply not engage. Worse, an Elettrica that under-sells visibly damages the franchise's reputation for hit products — the SF90 hybrid took time to build acceptance and arguably never reached its full demand potential. A failed Elettrica would create permanent narrative damage.

Our take: The bear case has the more sympathetic intuitive appeal but the bull case has the more relevant data. The SF90 hybrid did build a real customer base over time, and the 296 hybrid has been one of Ferrari's most successful product lines despite the electrified powertrain. Ferrari has demonstrably shown it can introduce electrified products without compromising brand equity — provided the product is allocated, not pushed. The risk is execution, not strategy. If the Elettrica is launched with the right pricing, allocation discipline, and engineering credibility, it expands the franchise; if it's positioned for volume or priced for accessibility, it risks dilution. October 9 will tell us which.

Model Update Needed

Valuation impact: Net of these adjustments, fair value moves by ~1-2% — net trim on revenue is largely offset by margin and FCF upgrades. With shares at ~50x forward earnings and ~30x forward EBITDA, the multiple is the constraint, not the operating earnings. Our DCF fair value sits at $440-475 per share (vs. recent close ~$460-475), implying limited upside without a multiple expansion catalyst — which the CMD could provide or compromise.

Thesis Scorecard Post-Earnings (Initiation Baseline)

Overall: Thesis is intact. Q2 confirms the structural bull case (visibility, personalization, margin expansion, capital return) while leaving the bear case (valuation, China, electrification) unresolved. Net read is neutral.

Action: Initiating at Hold with a constructive bias. The asymmetric catalyst is the October 9 Capital Markets Day — a successful event with a credible Elettrica reveal and a defensible post-2030 framework could re-rate the multiple higher; a disappointing event creates the first real test of the Ferrari valuation premium in years. We expect to revisit the rating immediately after the CMD reveal. In the interim, the print does not warrant adding or trimming at current levels — but it does warrant watching China deliveries, personalization rate, and order-book extension closely for the next two quarters.