财务模型
已发布 59 个 · 59 个 C15 核验 · 0 个 IPO 前 · 最新发布:DELL (2026-09-28)
- 周期窗口
- 18Q + 4A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Six filed revenue lines, each on its own sequential growth rate: AI-optimised servers / traditional servers and networking / storage inside ISG, commercial and consumer inside CSG, plus Corporate and other; the AI mix is an output of the six, not a driver
- 投资逻辑
- AI-optimised servers go 1.6% of revenue to 38.5% in three years on management's own guide, and each point of that mix costs gross margin: the question is what the run-rate is once the build-out laps
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 160 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 18 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 18Q + 4A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- AWM management fees = average assets under supervision x fee rate; the eight Global Banking & Markets revenue lines off their own growth rates, split intermediation (cyclical) versus financing (durable); net interest = opening balance sheet x yield
- 投资逻辑
- Equities intermediation reverts 28% to its own trailing average and financing keeps compounding into the SLR: the Hold expressed as drivers, ROTE settling at 21.5-22.5% against a 23.5% peak quarter
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 153 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 18 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Segment Performance · KPI Drivers · Projection Drivers — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Per-week rates × weeks in the fiscal period: retail = transactions × average ticket; HD Supply and SRS/GMS each on their own per-week growth rate; the three pieces sum to filed net sales
- 投资逻辑
- Traffic stays negative into FY27E and SRS/GMS mix holds net margin at 8.5% against the Street's 10% by FY30E: the Hold expressed as drivers
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 176 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x revenue disaggregation (Advertising / FoA Other / Reality Labs); segment operating income tied FoA + RL = total
- 投资逻辑
- AI capex supercycle: $125-145B FY26 capex vs ads +25% guide; FY26E $253B at consensus, FCF pinned near zero through FY27
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 106 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- Wealth asset management = average fee-based client assets x fee rate; Investment Management = average AUM x fee rate; Institutional Securities = five business lines off the same quarter a year earlier; net interest = opening balance sheet x yield
- 投资逻辑
- Equities turns negative year on year in FY2027E and the Wealth fee rate compresses to 69bp: the Hold expressed as drivers, taking ROTCE from a peak 26.6% to under 20%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 196 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers · Segment Performance · Projection Drivers — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 6
- KPI 结构
- NII = average interest-earning assets x NII yield; expenses = expense ratio x total net revenue; credit costs = credit-cost ratio x average loans; equity-securities gains = disposal rate x domestic equity book
- 投资逻辑
- NII yield on a ¥237tn deposit book in Japan's first rate cycle: FY27E net income ¥2,994bn, 11% above MUFG's ¥2,700bn target; DPS ¥96
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 169 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Disclosed Bank Metrics (as filed) · Segment Performance · KPI Drivers — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 17Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- QoQ growth × segment (Compute & Networking / Graphics)
- 投资逻辑
- Vera Rubin in full production: Q2 FY27 rev $96.2B (+106% YoY), FY27E ~$410B (+90%), decel to +12% by FY31; GM fades 74% → 71%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 85 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 17 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 14Q + 3A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- Net sales built brand by brand: 28 disclosed brands on their own sequential growth rates, summing to five therapeutic areas, plus one explicit line for pipeline assets not yet launched
- 投资逻辑
- Entresto's US cliff against six ramping launches: FY2026E net sales +3.0% on guidance, +5.05% CAGR to 2030 at the bottom of management's band, and the out-years rest on one visible pipeline line
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 224 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 14 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Core (non-IFRS) Reconciliation · Net Sales by Region (memo) — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 20Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth by revenue type (Product / Subscription / Support) off filed anchors; the face statement's Subscription-and-support line is a calculated subtotal
- 投资逻辑
- Subscription +33% on a full CyberArk year: FY27E revenue $14.16B inside the $14.1-14.2B guide; $1.34B of D&A holds GAAP operating margin near 6%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 156 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 20 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation · KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Shipment volume x realised net revenue per 1,000 units (combustible / smoke-free)
- 投资逻辑
- Cigarettes -2.5% at +8.6% price, HTUs +8.7%: smoke-free reaches 48% of net revenues by 2030E; FY26E diluted EPS $7.19, the floor of PMI's own guide
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 180 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Operating Segments — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 11Q + 2A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 6
- KPI 结构
- NII = average balance x yield for each asset and funding class; wealth fees = assets under administration or management x a basis-point fee rate; PCL = average loans x PCL rate; staff cost = FTE x compensation per head
- 投资逻辑
- Balance-sheet growth at a steady margin plus AUA-driven wealth fees: FY26E diluted EPS C$16.18, ROE 17.2%, CET1 13.4%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 110 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 11 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers · Segment Performance · KPI Drivers - Projection Assumptions — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 18Q + 4A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- NII = average earning-asset and funding balances x yields and rates, annualised by days; each fee line on its own sequential growth; provision = average loans x provision rate
- 投资逻辑
- Asset-cap removal redeployed at a thinner margin: earning assets +16% buy NII +5%; FY26E EPS $7.92, ROTCE 17.3% to 18.9% by FY28E
- 更新于
- 2026-09-28 · 206 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 18 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers · Operating Segments · Memo: Superseded Disclosures — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 23Q + 5A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth % × product category (iPhone / Mac / iPad / Wearables / Services); four hardware lines sum to IS Products
- 投资逻辑
- Memory inflation takes 280bps of GM in two quarters; FY27E EPS $9.23 vs $9.60 consensus on one iPhone supercycle, not two — Hold
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 161 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 23 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Segment KPIs — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- QoQ growth × customer group (BP&C / C&MP subscription revenue)
- 投资逻辑
- Organic ARR decel caps growth at HSD; ~95%-of-FCF buybacks carry GAAP EPS $18→$29 by FY30; freemium conversion is the unmodeled upside
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 118 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 23Q + 5A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- Semiconductor Systems revenue by end market (foundry-logic / DRAM / flash), each on its own sequential growth rate, plus services off the installed base and Corporate and Other; the disclosed market mix is an output of the three, not a driver
- 投资逻辑
- DRAM went 17% of systems revenue to 26% on HBM while flash sits at 7% against a 21-26% history: the recovery candidate is the market nobody is paying for
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 175 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 23 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x segment (NA / International / AWS) + disaggregation, mix and segment-margin drivers
- 投资逻辑
- AWS re-acceleration (+28% and rising) funds the ~$200B AI capex cycle; retail margin grind does the rest
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 125 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Litho units x ASP-change + IBM (service) growth; EUR currency of record
- 投资逻辑
- EUV monopoly, supply-constrained: FY26E +35% (EUR 44B guide); Q4-26E EUR 14.4B execution + 2027 CMD reset are the swings
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 123 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 6Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x segment (Semiconductor Solutions / Infrastructure Software) + COGS-mix + AOA-runoff drivers
- 投资逻辑
- XPU custom-AI ramp: FY26E AI ~$55B, FY27E ~$103B at the >$100B floor; revenue $105B to $161B FY27E
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 112 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 6 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 7
- KPI 结构
- Seven segment engines: premiums × per-unit growth (GEICO / Primary / Reinsurance), portfolio × yield, equity book × normalised return
- 投资逻辑
- Operating earnings separated from the mark: investment gains are equity book × a 7% normalised return, not a forecast
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 188 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Memo - Pilot Reclassification — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 8Q + 3A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 1
- KPI 结构
- Members × PV per Active Member × Take Rate (intensive: count × $/unit); MyPay ARR informational
- 投资逻辑
- Consumer fintech compounding: Members 8.6M → 13M+; PV/Member rising; MyPay attach driving ARPU; FY26 +22% → FY30 +18%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 74 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 8 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 23Q + 5A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x segment (Service/Vehicle x US/International)
- 投资逻辑
- US service stall (FY26 flat) vs Intl DD growth; cash-pile buybacks at 52-wk lows carry EPS $1.59→$2.19 by FY30
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 128 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 23 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 20Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth % × product category (Networking / Security / Collaboration / Observability) plus Services; the four categories and a disclosed rounding residual sum to IS Product revenue
- 投资逻辑
- FY27 guided +15% includes a 53rd week nobody mentioned, worth 1.9pts; AI infra $4B to $7.5B carries 5.5 more
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 175 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 20 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 6Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x segment (Entertainment / Sports / Experiences) + segment-OI-margin + services-mix drivers
- 投资逻辑
- Streaming margin inflection: Ent OI margin 11% FY25 to ~14.5% FY30E; parks/cruise capex cycle; FY26 = 53 wks
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 120 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 6 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 10Q + 2A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- Consolidated product lines (equipment, services, insurance), each on its own rate; segments sourced but not projected because the FY2026 re-cut breaks their basis
- 投资逻辑
- Services margin and the recurring other-income line carry FY26E adjusted operating profit to $10.61bn, inside the raised $10.55-10.75bn guide
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 129 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 10 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- QoQ growth x revenue component (5 transaction products + 8 NII lines + Gold/Proxy/Other split)
- 投资逻辑
- Crypto is the binding constraint; event contracts + NII compound: FY26E $5.0B (+11%), EPS ~$1.88 mid-Street
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 148 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 14Q + 3A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- NII = average interest-earning assets x net interest margin x days/365; fee, trading and insurance revenue each on their own driver
- 投资逻辑
- Margin x earning assets, so the rate path and the balance sheet compete: FY26E RoTE holds the mid-teens target while the 2027 cost line runs above the Street
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 120 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 14 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers · Segment Performance (four businesses + Corporate Centre) · Projection Drivers — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 23Q + 5A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- YoY-by-quarter growth × sub-offering (GBS: Online/Desktop Eco; Consumer: TurboTax/Credit Karma/ProTax); tax-season seasonality preserved
- 投资逻辑
- Online Eco +16% + IES mid-market; DIY value-based pricing pivot; 2026 Plan +250bp FY27 OM; FY26 +13.5% → FY30 +7.4%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 131 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 23 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 9
- KPI 结构
- NII = average earning assets × yield less interest-bearing liabilities × rate paid, plus eight noninterest-revenue lines on their own growth rates
- 投资逻辑
- Both sides of the balance sheet priced separately so spread compression shows; FY26E lands on the $105.5B NII and $107.5B expense guides
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 211 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers · Segment Performance (Managed Basis) · Projection Drivers — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 20Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 10
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth % × product-and-service offering (ten filed offerings summing exactly to total revenue); the three segments are carried as a mix layer for segment margins
- 投资逻辑
- The FY27 guide only closes with 215bps of gross-margin compression; FCF falls $67.0B to $52.5B, a third straight decline, while CFO still grows
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 173 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 20 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 23Q + 5A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- bit growth × ASP change × technology (DRAM / NAND / Other)
- 投资逻辑
- $50B FQ4'26 guide-anchored; 2027-28 supply response normalizes GM 86%→52% by FY29; SCA floor holds trough above prior-cycle peaks
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 101 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 23 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 4
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x regional streaming revenue (UCAN / EMEA / LATAM / APAC) + content amort/spend-ratio drivers
- 投资逻辑
- Ads scaling + pricing carry low-teens growth post-members disclosure; OM 31.5% guided FY26E stepping to 38% FY30E
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 112 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 20Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- Five global business units + Corporate, each = year-ago quarter x (1 + organic growth + currency and acquisitions); every margin driver set per fiscal quarter
- 投资逻辑
- Organic growth by business unit with a front-loaded margin path: FY27E core EPS $6.95 inside the guide, FY28E-FY30E EPS 2.7-5.1% below the Street
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 183 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 20 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Operating Segments · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x segment (Government / Commercial) + contribution-bridge margins (SBC = tying residual) + US-geo driver
- 投资逻辑
- US-led AIP compounding: NDR 150 + Gov +84%; FY26E $7.9B (+76%) decel to +21% FY30E at ~55% GAAP OM
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 130 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- TPV YoY growth × transaction take rate + OVAS growth; expense/loss rates on TPV; composite customer-money cash bridge
- 投资逻辑
- TPV +9%→+5.5% vs take-rate erosion −4bp/yr; Lores $1.5B+ cost program holds margin; buybacks drive EPS — Hold, stabilization not re-rating
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 134 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 1
- KPI 结构
- DAU YoY growth × ABPDAU growth → bookings; GAAP revenue via deferred-recognition ratio
- 投资逻辑
- Age-check funnel cut FY26 bookings guide 14pp; DAU 132M + ABPDAU drive +10% FY26E / +14% FY27E bookings, FCF ~$1.2B — Hold
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 115 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- QoQ bit-shipment growth × blended ASP change per product (DRAM / NAND Flash / Other); KRW currency of record
- 投资逻辑
- HBM-led supercycle at a 72%-OM blow-off: sold-out 2026 (+216% rev), 2027 ASP correction modeled vs Street's uninterrupted ramp
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 128 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 6
- KPI 结构
- QoQ growth x platform (HPC / Smartphone / IoT / Automotive / DCE / Others); NT$ currency of record
- 投资逻辑
- AI-foundry monopoly: FY26E +37.5% NT$ on HPC; GM glides 66% to 59% by FY30E on overseas-fab dilution
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 128 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 7Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth x filed segment (Create / Grow); cross-regime 2021 basis preserved; Strategic/Non-Strategic overlay calibrates the path
- 投资逻辑
- Vector ad inflection (strategic Grow +49%) + ironSource sunset; GAAP-profit Q4'26E; FY26 +13.5% -> FY30 +10.1%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 109 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 7 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 4
- KPI 结构
- Risk member-months x premium yield (UnitedHealthcare) + consumers x premium per consumer (Optum Health); scripts x revenue per script; fee-based member-months x administrative fee
- 投资逻辑
- Guided MCR of 88.1% forces H2'26 to ~90.9%, so the operating cost ratio carries the growth: FY27E adjusted $22.72, inside the 13-16% algorithm
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 242 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Segment Detail · KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation · Segment Earnings Mix (drivers) — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- Three reportable segments' net sales grown off the same quarter a year earlier, plus membership income; segments tie to net sales in all 27 periods
- 投资逻辑
- Segment growth rates held to the August guide: FY27E EPS $2.85 inside $2.80–2.87, with 3Q27E at the top of its $0.62–0.64 range
- 更新于
- 2026-09-27 · 172 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- End-user applications, not reported segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries ex-Rail, Power Generation, Oil and Gas and Industrial-and-Rail each on a year-over-year growth rate, plus Financial Products as average finance receivables x revenue yield. The application split is what survives the 1Q26 segment re-cut
- 投资逻辑
- Power Generation compounds to 3.0x 2024 by FY2030E on the data-centre pull; the near-term bar is whether H2 2026 margin holds without the tariff recoveries that flattered H1
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 207 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Operating Segments · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 20Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Average warehouses x weeks x net sales per warehouse-week, plus membership fee income; per-week drivers carry the 16-week fourth quarter and the 53-week FY2028
- 投资逻辑
- Warehouse-weeks make FY2028's 53rd week explicit; on a 52-week basis FY2028 revenue sits within 0.02% of consensus, so the extra week is the whole gap
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 135 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 20 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 16Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 7
- KPI 结构
- QoQ growth × segment (CCG / DCAI / NEX / Intel Foundry / Mobileye / All Other / Eliminations)
- 投资逻辑
- Intel Foundry external customer ramp + DCAI AI server share recovery; FY26 +6.5% → FY30 +8.1%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 68 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 16 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers — Segment Revenue — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- Coca-Cola's own filed bridge: each of five operating segments is the same quarter a year earlier x (1 + organic + currency + acquisitions/divestitures), with organic = concentrate volume + price/mix
- 投资逻辑
- The reporting calendar is the 2026 story: 1Q26 ran 93 days and 4Q26E runs 90, which lands the ~5% organic guide on an unchanged run-rate
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 242 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Operating Segments · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 20Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- Systems revenue by primary market (memory / foundry / logic-IDM), each on its own sequential growth rate, plus customer-support revenue off the installed base; industry WFE spend and Lam's served market sit outside the chain as a governor, not a driver
- 投资逻辑
- Memory went 60% of systems to 39% while foundry went 26% to 54%: the mix is the argument, and FY28 is where a conceded NAND-oversupply case starts to bite
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 197 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 20 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Pro-Forma / Non-GAAP Reconciliation — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Keytruda franchise on a year-over-year growth rate, split into subcutaneous QLEX by a conversion rate with IV as the residual, plus eleven other product buckets and Animal Health each on their own growth rate
- 投资逻辑
- Subcutaneous conversion is the whole bridge: base IV Keytruda turned negative in 2Q26, and FY2029E revenue sits 8.8% under a Street that models no cliff at all through the December 2028 US patent expiry
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 200 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Revenue by Product and Segment · KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 16Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 4
- KPI 结构
- QoQ growth × segment (Garena / Shopee / Monee / Other)
- 投资逻辑
- Shopee ROW expansion (Brazil/Latam) + Monee consumer credit compounding; FY26 +32% → FY30 +13%
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 86 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 16 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · KPI Drivers — Segment Revenue — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 4Q + 3A (1Q25, 2Q25, 1Q26, 2Q26; 3Q25/4Q25 never filed separately) · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 3
- KPI 结构
- GW × $/W (AI Solutions & Infra), subs × revenue/sub (Consumer), launches × $/launch (Launch Services), growth % × 3 lines
- 投资逻辑
- Contracted AI cloud (Anthropic $1.25B/mo) on 2→4 GW at ~$20/W: FY26E $40.7B, FY27E $91B vs Street $105B
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 93 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 4 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 23Q + 5A · 9Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 4
- KPI 结构
- Payments volume × yield, processed transactions × revenue per 1,000, cross-border volume × yield, less client incentives as a % of gross revenue
- 投资逻辑
- Visa's own volume and yield metrics run 0.2–1.4% under consensus through FY28E, the gap widening each year
- 更新于
- 2026-09-26 · 166 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 23 个历史季度与 9 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 8
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth % x therapeutic area, with Skyrizi / Rinvoq / Humira broken out (8 buckets, exact to filed revenue)
- 投资逻辑
- Amortisation roll-off, not operations, drives GAAP margin; adj EPS $13.90 FY26E on guide, 12% under Street by FY28E
- 更新于
- 2026-09-23 · 130 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 Adjusted (Non-GAAP) Reconciliation · KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- Volume x realization per operating area (U.S./Int'l Upstream, U.S./Int'l Downstream) x revenue capture; costs driven per barrel of oil equivalent, not as a share of revenue
- 投资逻辑
- Brent normalising from $104 to $75 is the whole model: at $95 flat it prints consensus, at $80 it prints $8.71
- 更新于
- 2026-09-23 · 201 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 18Q + 4A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Gross dollar volume x payment-network net yield, each against the same quarter a year earlier because the yield is seasonal, plus value-added services on its own growth rate
- 投资逻辑
- Four years, because the FY2022 net-revenue re-cut stops at 1Q22; FY2026E net revenue $37.3B (+13.9%), on consensus through FY2028 and below it after
- 更新于
- 2026-09-23 · 151 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 18 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 18Q + 4A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 2
- KPI 结构
- Ten filed franchises grown off the same quarter a year earlier; segment totals sum them, and fiscal 2026's 53rd week sits in the 4Q rates
- 投资逻辑
- Four years, not five: continuing-ops quarters stop at 1Q22, so the window starts where the Kenvue restatement does rather than opening a 16% basis seam
- 更新于
- 2026-09-22 · 166 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 18 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 11
- KPI 结构
- Eleven filed products across five therapeutic areas, each grown off the same quarter a year earlier; area subtotals and revenue are sums
- 投资逻辑
- Takes the guided H2 step-down that consensus looks past: FY26E revenue $86.3B vs $88.3B Street, and EPS carries the IPR&D the guide excludes
- 更新于
- 2026-09-22 · 105 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 5
- KPI 结构
- Deliveries × ASP and GWh × revenue/GWh across the five filed revenue lines; regulatory credits modelled per delivery, not as a margin
- 投资逻辑
- Priced on what Tesla actually discloses: no Robotaxi or Optimus line and zero other income, so the gap to consensus EPS is the autonomy option
- 更新于
- 2026-09-21 · 181 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 22Q + 5A · 10Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 6
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth % × filed revenue line (Search & other / YouTube ads / Network / Subscriptions, platforms & devices / Cloud / Other Bets); the six leaf lines sum to Total Revenues as filed
- 投资逻辑
- Cloud decelerates +72% 3Q26E to +15% FY30E; equity marks are zero in every projected period, so projected EPS is operating EPS
- 更新于
- 2026-09-19 · 190 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 22 个历史季度与 10 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement · Segment KPIs (annual, reference only) — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 21Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 9
- KPI 结构
- Volume x blended take rate x mix (transaction) + QoQ-growth S&S components (stablecoin / rewards / interest & finance / other)
- 投资逻辑
- Volume x take-rate cycle trough (FY26E -18%) + stablecoin/staking S&S compounding; buybacks fund the wait
- 更新于
- 2026-07-13 · 109 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 21 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 2Q + 3A (424B4 disclosure depth; deepens with post-IPO 10-Qs) · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 1
- KPI 结构
- Monthly Paying Customers × ARPU (units × ASP, single consolidated segment)
- 投资逻辑
- Post-IPO ($29, Jul '26): acquisition annualization FY26 +100% → +15% FY30; $933M raise banked for M&A; net-cash ~FY29E
- 更新于
- 2026-07-04 · 31 KB
预览模型
🔒 完整工作簿另含 2 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
- 周期窗口
- 16Q + 5A · 8Q + 5A
- 业务分部
- 4
- KPI 结构
- YoY growth × segment (Cloud / Software / Hardware / Services), FY26-recast regime
- 投资逻辑
- $638B RPO converts: Cloud +65% FY27 on the DC build; GM troughs at the $90B capex/depreciation wave, FY30E rev ~$200B (10% haircut to mgmt path)
- 更新于
- 2026-06-12 · 59 KB
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🔒 完整工作簿另含 16 个历史季度与 8 个预测季度,以及 KPI Drivers · Balance Sheet · Cash Flow Statement — 每个小计均为实时公式,每项预测均可追溯至驱动因子。
方法论
每个预测收入单元格都可追溯至 KPI / 驱动因子行(C14)。终端驱动单元格只能是利率、数量或历史锚定值 — 绝不允许直接输入预测美元金额(C15)。每个分项小计与申报值的对账行均为 $0(C13)。每个模型都针对该公司的实际科目结构单独编写 — 不克隆其他模型,不走级别输入的捷径。